ATL: IKE Discussion

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RL3AO
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Re: ATL IKE: Recon Discussion

#6841 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:29 pm

For that microwave, I used this image:

Image

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/20080909.2302.f17.x.91h_1deg.09LIKE.65kts-970mb-227N-834W.80pc.jpg
And for the location, try

North: 29.99
East: -75.51
South: 15.37
West: -91.26


Of course the NRL images don't update and you would need to overlay the new image each time. But it works good for posting recon images.
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#6842 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:31 pm

Take a look at the improvements Ike has made just hours after coming off the Cuban coast, this strongly suggests some decent strengthening should occur once Ike gets further away from land and the convection deepens in the outer part of the system to become a CDO.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATR ... m16ir.html
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Re:

#6843 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:32 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Ike ain't doing that though.


I hate to join a "Wobble war"...but Ike looks NWbyNNW to me right now...i'd say i'm seeing about 330 Degrees.


This weakness is gonna pull Ike way more North then the models see I can see it now.


I agree, the "other Weatherfreak" lol. I can see that if this weakness does not fill in fast enough it will track more NW then the Models see it right now. Although that is just a speculation of me, and not a "official prediction".
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6844 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:33 pm

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6845 Postby inda_iwall » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:33 pm

I hate to say this, but DeltaDog has been onto this for a while, since then I have been watching it, and I think it is going to be a major factor, and if it blows up to a 3 overnight it will be starting its own path I bet. I have a feeling this time tomorrow people in LA, MS and AL will be very aware of big ol Ike coming.
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#6846 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:33 pm

Also be *very* careful with guessing the motion, the eye is rapidly clearing out and this process may make it seem like Ike is traveling more north then it actually is.
problem is the eastern eyewall was weak whilst the western one was a bit flabby but now they've become better shaped and that may make it look like its gone a little more north as it corrects that issue.

The loop in my last post shows what I mean very clearly.

Mind you does seem to be moving near NW in the last hour or so, tohugh 3 hour motion still around WNW.
Last edited by KWT on Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:

#6847 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:34 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Ike ain't doing that though.


I hate to join a "Wobble war"...but Ike looks NWbyNNW to me right now...i'd say i'm seeing about 330 Degrees.


This weakness is gonna pull Ike way more North then the models see I can see it now.


Looks pretty close to track via this loop, tad north but of no significance imo

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6848 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:34 pm

Looks like ERC finishing up...


Image
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Weatherfreak000

#6849 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:35 pm

I'm not too concerned intensity wise however...


Although Ike has a small, intact core it looks very haggard. The structure overall reminds me of MANY classic GOM storms we expect to "Bomb out" over the GOM that never do.

Gustav anybody?

Time of course will tell...im definitely feeling a bit better intensity wise however.
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Re: Re:

#6850 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:36 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Ike ain't doing that though.


I hate to join a "Wobble war"...but Ike looks NWbyNNW to me right now...i'd say i'm seeing about 330 Degrees.


This weakness is gonna pull Ike way more North then the models see I can see it now.


I agree, the "other Weatherfreak" lol. I can see that if this weakness does not fill in fast enough it will track more NW then the Models see it right now. Although that is just a speculation of me, and not a "official prediction".


You guys need to go over to the Ike Model thread and read AFM post.
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#6851 Postby KWT » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:36 pm

weatherfreak...its been overland and hugged Cuba coast...

Its gone from a totally collapsed eye and eyewall really weak...to a clear eye on IR and a closed eyewall in 3hrs...that suggests to me this is a 4/5 fodder.
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Re:

#6852 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:38 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'm not too concerned intensity wise however...


Although Ike has a small, intact core it looks very haggard. The structure overall reminds me of MANY classic GOM storms we expect to "Bomb out" over the GOM that never do.

Gustav anybody?

Time of course will tell...im definitely feeling a bit better intensity wise however.


Disagre...I think it looks very good, and dont feel ANY better about possible non-intensification.
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Weatherfreak000

#6853 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:38 pm

Note: about my NNW post...clearly the storm if this is the case has JUST now made that change in motion...and won't show up clearly in any radar or satellite...give it another 2 or 3 hours...if I recall the storm did this last night and went back on course...


Only problem is a clear weakness...makes me wonder if it IS indeed moving that way...what's to stop it from continuing that motion.
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Re:

#6854 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:38 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:
Gustav anybody?



I don't exactly see 25kt of shear around like Gustav had.
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#6855 Postby Annie Oakley » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:38 pm

(sigh) Where are the Mods? Have read 3 pages past and a lot of one-liners, chat stuff, out-there predictions etc...This is a crucial time for Texas.
Not trying to offend ANYONE but after talking with Dolly victims -we need good info so folks can prepare and stay calm and realistic. There remains a lot of fear in the Valley.....
Last edited by Annie Oakley on Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#6856 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:39 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'm not too concerned intensity wise however...


Although Ike has a small, intact core it looks very haggard. The structure overall reminds me of MANY classic GOM storms we expect to "Bomb out" over the GOM that never do.

Gustav anybody?

Time of course will tell...im definitely feeling a bit better intensity wise however.


Are you serious? Dennis took 12 hours to start strengthening at all after coming off Cuba. Gustav was probably the first storm forecast to strengthen over the GOM that didn't that I've ever seen, and that was very explainable. Convection is deepening, we are 4 days from landfall, and you're feeling just perfectly nonchalant apparently.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6857 Postby MBryant » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:40 pm

Is it me or has the SE eyewall expanded to the Cuban coast at the same rate Ike is headed away from the coast? And is that significant?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6858 Postby jinftl » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:40 pm

I recall that in discussions where the NHC is cautiously forecasting a period of rapid intensification, they say that 4 of the factors 'needed' for RI are present, for example. What are those factors and which are or are not present with Ike.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#6859 Postby Sihara » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:41 pm

deltadog03 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

There is the weakness we are talking about.


Thank you for posting that, Deltadog - but I will admit that I don't really know what I'm seeing, if anyone would care to explain it. Pardon my ignorance. But it does seem there is a distinct area between 2 highs... or something.


A lot of posters refer to a NW motion, or 325. When I looked at the center on tv awhile ago, it sure looked to me as if it were "wobbling" or jogging N/W. Glad I wasn't the only one who noticed this motion.
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Re: Re:

#6860 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 09, 2008 7:42 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:
Weatherfreak000 wrote:I'm not too concerned intensity wise however...


Although Ike has a small, intact core it looks very haggard. The structure overall reminds me of MANY classic GOM storms we expect to "Bomb out" over the GOM that never do.

Gustav anybody?

Time of course will tell...im definitely feeling a bit better intensity wise however.


Are you serious? Dennis took 12 hours to start strengthening at all after coming off Cuba. Gustav was probably the first storm forecast to strengthen over the GOM that didn't that I've ever seen, and that was very explainable. Convection is deepening, we are 4 days from landfall, and you're feeling just perfectly nonchalant apparently.



Actually we are less then 4 days from landfall now. I believe they(NHC) expect Ike to pick up forward
speed as he heads toward Texas. He way into Texas at 2pm on Saturday.
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