ATL: IKE Discussion

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Janie2006
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Re: Re:

#8161 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:46 pm

Ixolib wrote:
dhweather wrote:After Katrina, I reviewed all of the hurricanes that had reached category five intensity in the Gulf. Regardless of intensity at landfall, all but one had a storm surge typical of category five heights.

Please remember this if you are in a low lying area.

EXCELLENT POINT, David... If folks could seriously get a grip on this very concept, that would make all the difference in the world. Low lying, or even up to 30', this is a very real issue that I believe many don't get. I surely didn't "get it" before Katrina, but surely do now. And, given the size of Ike, this will be even more evident at landfall than a much smaller major - say like Camille!!

IF ANYONE HAS QUESTIONS ABOUT SURGE/STORM SIZE/LANDFALL IMPACT, just ask any of us from the MS coast who were there on 08/29/05. We'll be happy to pass on our experiences....


Very good points, but I'll need a strong drink first...and that's not a joke. At Gulfport we had storm surge up to my first-floor window sill...I was living 6 miles off the coast at the time. Watch out for the creeks and bayous along coastal regions. Storm surge can and will flow into those smaller creeks.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8162 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:47 pm

I think they are waiting for a good reason. They dont want people in houston to go running to dallas as with Rita. They realize a mass evac is not possible at this point, even if it were appropriate. I heard Galveston Mayor say they will revaluate things as they go to decide on east end of the Island. They point is they dont need people 40 ft high in houston blocking highways for folks in places like Galveston and cities near the opening of galveston bay. Its seems crazy now but I think I see the reasoning. So far all reports i have seen houston area authrorities are really pushing shelter in place.
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Re: Re:

#8163 Postby Sabanic » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:47 pm

Weatherfreak14 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Looking at recon and satellite, it appears that it might be starting to move WNW.


I agree, it looks like it is starting to move to the WNW ever so slowly.... It maybe a wobble but i doubt it.


Definitely a jog, or wobble. Time will tell.
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Re:

#8164 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:Looking at recon and satellite, it appears that it might be starting to move WNW.


I haven't check the latest recon fix, but on Sat. the eye disappears on the 01:15 pic and so it is hard to tell exactly what motion it is on currently.
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#8165 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:49 pm

>>No kidding. No one on the northern GOM thinks this thing is headed anywhere but Texas (maybe SW LA). Let's hope the models are right and that high off the Texas coast does what it's supposed to do..... for the sake of SE LA.

Thought about that a few times today. I mean everyone's been paying attention to Ike, but it would be lights out. No way at this point for anyone to get out. Would be a disaster way beyond Katrina when well over a million people were gone (FWIW, Gustav estimates I heard were close to 1.9 million people gone). I don't think there's a remote possibility it would happen, not at all, but it would be insane if we got caught with our pants down. Not much people can do after having to be gone the better part of a week and then having to buy generators and stuff. And things are semi-messed up anyway. Would be epic - glad it's extremely unlikely.

For you Texans, hunker down and do what you gotta do. You're probably running on adrenaline now anyway. I know that feeling well.

Steve
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#8166 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:50 pm

Going solely on satellite, that inner eyewall looks less pronounced than earlier. Maybe a little consolidation taking place?
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#8167 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:50 pm

Yep, just updated and I do see the jog more WNW.
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#8168 Postby mattpetre » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:51 pm

Started a thread about Houston --- who does what or not... please go there to talk issues with evac, highway issues, etc. It'll be a bigger thread than here for a while. Things with Ike are pretty constant. Constantly getting bigger, constantly getting scarier, constantly getting closer.
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Re:

#8169 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:53 pm

mattpetre wrote:Started a thread about Houston --- who does what or not... please go there to talk issues with evac, highway issues, etc. It'll be a bigger thread than here for a while. Things with Ike are pretty constant. Constantly getting bigger, constantly getting scarier, constantly getting closer.

Thanks for starting a separate thread, as this one is clearly inappropriate for the "this person does/doesn't x/y" analyses.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8170 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:53 pm

940.5 mbs on last pass.
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Weatherfreak000

#8171 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:54 pm

The storm is on track...the eye unclearing on IR has you confused...remains generally NW.
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Re: Re:

#8172 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:55 pm

Sabanic wrote:
Weatherfreak14 wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Looking at recon and satellite, it appears that it might be starting to move WNW.


I agree, it looks like it is starting to move to the WNW ever so slowly.... It maybe a wobble but i doubt it.


Definitely a jog, or wobble. Time will tell.



I'm usually against "wobble watching" but I'll make an exception here and say yes
it does "look" like Ike is moving wnw now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
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#8173 Postby Annie Oakley » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:56 pm

Let's get back on point and ignore the anti-Texas bias...it is like water off a duck's back. We are used to it-doesn't phase us. Bottom line is NOW and what Ike is doing wherever he goes.
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Weatherfreak000

#8174 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:56 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html


I find Water Vapor is a tad clearer in seeing the storm. Bring up your forecast points....motion unchanged.
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Re:

#8175 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:57 pm

Steve wrote:>>No kidding. No one on the northern GOM thinks this thing is headed anywhere but Texas (maybe SW LA). Let's hope the models are right and that high off the Texas coast does what it's supposed to do..... for the sake of SE LA.

Thought about that a few times today. I mean everyone's been paying attention to Ike, but it would be lights out. No way at this point for anyone to get out. Would be a disaster way beyond Katrina when well over a million people were gone (FWIW, Gustav estimates I heard were close to 1.9 million people gone). I don't think there's a remote possibility it would happen, not at all, but it would be insane if we got caught with our pants down. Not much people can do after having to be gone the better part of a week and then having to buy generators and stuff. And things are semi-messed up anyway. Would be epic - glad it's extremely unlikely.

For you Texans, hunker down and do what you gotta do. You're probably running on adrenaline now anyway. I know that feeling well.

Steve


Extremely unlikely is still putting it mildly.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8176 Postby tallywx » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:57 pm

Why are you all looking at satellite images to surmise motion when we've been getting NOAA jet eye penetrations every 30 minutes?

002930 2443N 08622W 7185 02413 9425
010500 2444N 08626W 7231 02350 9416
013830 2446N 08628W 7187 02398 9405
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8177 Postby txag2005 » Wed Sep 10, 2008 8:59 pm

What is the average windspeed for a storm with 940 mb pressure?
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8178 Postby TexasSam » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:00 pm

Here in Baytown I just got one of them recorded calls form the mayor telling people in low lying areas, and trailers to evacuate. 77520
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#8179 Postby terrapintransit » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:00 pm

Pressure 940.5..........
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Re: Re:

#8180 Postby Sabanic » Wed Sep 10, 2008 9:02 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Steve wrote:>>No kidding. No one on the northern GOM thinks this thing is headed anywhere but Texas (maybe SW LA). Let's hope the models are right and that high off the Texas coast does what it's supposed to do..... for the sake of SE LA.

Thought about that a few times today. I mean everyone's been paying attention to Ike, but it would be lights out. No way at this point for anyone to get out. Would be a disaster way beyond Katrina when well over a million people were gone (FWIW, Gustav estimates I heard were close to 1.9 million people gone). I don't think there's a remote possibility it would happen, not at all, but it would be insane if we got caught with our pants down. Not much people can do after having to be gone the better part of a week and then having to buy generators and stuff. And things are semi-messed up anyway. Would be epic - glad it's extremely unlikely.

For you Texans, hunker down and do what you gotta do. You're probably running on adrenaline now anyway. I know that feeling well.

Steve


Extremely unlikely is still putting it mildly.


You're probably right SC, but if you lived here,and he was 430 miles SSE of you at the moment you might be a tad concerned. 450 or so from NOLA, and 715 or so from Houston.
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