ATL: IKE Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

I see very little chance of this weakening, even if the core collapses.

The strongest winds are in the outer eyewall. In fact, if that core collapses, it may even intensify quickly, as that means the outer eyewall should contract

What I was pointing out was what you had said yesterday at this time. So far you've been right (not surprising).

[cheezyWXguy]

I see very little chance of this weakening, even if the core collapses.

The strongest winds are in the outer eyewall. In fact, if that core collapses, it may even intensify quickly, as that means the outer eyewall should contract

How long do you think this process will take and how big do think the eye will be?

[Steve]

>>Kinda goes with my thinking on those who choose to live in hurricane prone areas that are already below sea level.

Look, this isn't the time or place to discuss this but your thinking could just as easily be applied to those who choose to live anywhere in Peninsular Florida. You're a death trap waiting to happen. Some of us are responsible for the bulk of the country's seafood, oil, natural gas, estuaries, etc. It's called home.

You may consider the majority of the Netherlands, portions of Boston, Miami, Wilmington, Washington DC, Long Island in that. I believe it was Bo Gritz who started a "settlement" subdivision in the 1980's in Idaho because of all survivalist issues (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, fires, earthquakes, etc.), Idaho was in the best shape overall.

/leaving it at that

Steve

[6SpeedTA95]

I'm off to bed guys, goodluck to those in the path of this storm, I will be back probably late tomorrow night, I've gotta go to OKC for work tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

that is a pretty big track adjustment from the naked eye...would put houston definitely in cat 1 winds if that verified

Not per their discusssion.

[gatorcane]

I see no evidence of a WNW movement...all NW so far. The NHC comments it "could" be starting a more WNW movement.

That's pretty much allaying fears of those north of Ike (like in LA) for the time being....as in "all model guidance suggests a WNW movement to commence at some point..."

but as Delta Dog points out there is a weakness still to the north of iKe.

[Cape Verde]

My little fishing hideoout cabin between Wharton and Bay City is toast.

I had some expensive solar panels on the roof. But it was a crummy cabin. If I find those solar panels, they'll be cracked.

[Sabanic]

I see no evidence of a WNW movement...all NW so far. The NHC comments it "could" be starting a more WNW movement.

That's pretty much allaying fears of those north of Ike (like in LA) for the time being....as in "all model guidance suggests a WNW movement to commence at some point..."

but as Delta Dog points out there is a weakness still to the north of iKe.

MS/AL & FL Panhandle too

[Stormcenter]

Discussion:

.BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING.

I hope others will note this statement from the NHC's discussion.

[bob rulz]

I see very little chance of this weakening, even if the core collapses.

The strongest winds are in the outer eyewall. In fact, if that core collapses, it may even intensify quickly, as that means the outer eyewall should contract

How long do you think this process will take and how big do think the eye will be?

I'm curious to know this as well. It seems we've been talking about the inner core collapsing for a day now.

[Derek Ortt]

I see very little chance of this weakening, even if the core collapses.

The strongest winds are in the outer eyewall. In fact, if that core collapses, it may even intensify quickly, as that means the outer eyewall should contract

How long do you think this process will take and how big do think the eye will be?

I'd think maybe 30-40NM wide for the eye

[Derek Ortt]

Discussion:

.BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING.

I hope others will note this statement from the NHC's discussion.

and it's still likely to pay you a personal visit

[Jessie]

I went back and wanted to see how that opening did today and it actually nearly closed, but now is about as apart as when we started the day.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________-_____
IF that weakness(opening) continues to not close, what type effect on track, if any? I guess that would be a million dollar question.[/quote]
IF and its a HUGE IF, the weakness doesn't close the storm takes the path of least resistence...it follows the weakness.[/quote]

What a terrible thought!

[Derek Ortt]

>>Kinda goes with my thinking on those who choose to live in hurricane prone areas that are already below sea level.

Look, this isn't the time or place to discuss this but your thinking could just as easily be applied to those who choose to live anywhere in Peninsular Florida. You're a death trap waiting to happen. Some of us are responsible for the bulk of the country's seafood, oil, natural gas, estuaries, etc. It's called home.

You may consider the majority of the Netherlands, portions of Boston, Miami, Wilmington, Washington DC, Long Island in that. I believe it was Bo Gritz who started a "settlement" subdivision in the 1980's in Idaho because of all survivalist issues (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, fires, earthquakes, etc.), Idaho was in the best shape overall.

/leaving it at that

Steve

big difference about the EC of Florida

It is not susceptible to high surges (except for Biscayne Bay)

[bob rulz]

Another question; if the inner core collapses won't that mean that the storm expands in size yet again? If so that would make it easily larger than Katrina and close to being one of the largest hurricanes on record.

[Sabanic]

Discussion:

.BUT VERY
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD
BE STARTING.

I hope others will note this statement from the NHC's discussion.

We all note it brother, but it does say could be, and there is still a rather large weakness above it so gotta watch it if ya live on the Northern GC.

I'm out for the evening. Hope everyone gets some shut eye, and will see yas tomorrow.

Peace Out & God Bless

[Derek Ortt]

that is a pretty big track adjustment from the naked eye...would put houston definitely in cat 1 winds if that verified

Not per their discusssion.

some advice,

end your denial. On their track, you'll be getting cat 2 winds, not cat 1

[PTPatrick]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ft.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/jsl-l.jpg

Look at the right side of the Eye...new higher colder cloud tops. First greys I have seen all day on the AVN...on the funktop they show as green or JSL purple. Eye looks pretty good to me, I wouldnt be surprised to see it clear out soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

I see very little chance of this weakening, even if the core collapses.

The strongest winds are in the outer eyewall. In fact, if that core collapses, it may even intensify quickly, as that means the outer eyewall should contract

I've got to give ya props Derek. Last night you mentioned that this wouldn't have rapid intensification with a lot of us thought it would. You were right....

[Stormcenter]

I see no evidence of a WNW movement...all NW so far. The NHC comments it "could" be starting a more WNW movement.

That's pretty much allaying fears of those north of Ike (like in LA) for the time being....as in "all model guidance suggests a WNW movement to commence at some point..."

but as Delta Dog points out there is a weakness still to the north of iKe.

MS/AL & FL Panhandle too

I'll remember your posts on Saturday when Ike is inland.

It's almost like some of you believe the NHC hasn't done their homework.
They are the "experts".