ATL: IKE Discussion

[bayoubebe]

>>Kinda goes with my thinking on those who choose to live in hurricane prone areas that are already below sea level.

Look, this isn't the time or place to discuss this but your thinking could just as easily be applied to those who choose to live anywhere in Peninsular Florida. You're a death trap waiting to happen. Some of us are responsible for the bulk of the country's seafood, oil, natural gas, estuaries, etc. It's called home.
You may consider the majority of the Netherlands, portions of Boston, Miami, Wilmington, Washington DC, Long Island in that. I believe it was Bo Gritz who started a "settlement" subdivision in the 1980's in Idaho because of all survivalist issues (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, fires, earthquakes, etc.), Idaho was in the best shape overall.

/leaving it at that

Steve

Thanks Steve for pointing that out. It gets tiring seeing the "you choose to live below sea level" so you get what you deserve,it's your fault type of posts. I consider those insulting. Louisiana contributes alot to this country IMHO.

[PTPatrick]

So are they saying cat 4 or 3...nhc forecast point offshore is still a 3 and the next is inland....so whats JB's guess.

[teal61]

Jb's latest out at 10. Is very ominous for the HOU/GLS but without the usual Bastardi hype. If fact he mentions that this is one time he hopes that he is wrong. Very interesting but sobering read.

[haml8]

Derek, Wxman57, AFM .. I am in Katy roughly 35 miles 40 miles WEST of Houston, from what I can tell if the storm comes up through Freeport heading North the proximity of the eye will be very close correct? Will I see significant hurricane force winds here inland do you think? I looked at the NHC wind field potential and all I can come up with is a 20% chance. If that is not accurate then what should I look at to give me a better idea. hopefully this will help others on the board and not just me.
Thanks in advance for all you do on here..

[Ed Mahmoud]

Exact day of the week, exact time... RITA. I'm SO OUTTA HERE TONIGHT.

Cameron is still in the cone, doesn't look good for Texas now, but it isn't impossible for a Louisiana hit, based on the cone.

[Sihara]

>>Kinda goes with my thinking on those who choose to live in hurricane prone areas that are already below sea level.

Look, this isn't the time or place to discuss this but your thinking could just as easily be applied to those who choose to live anywhere in Peninsular Florida. You're a death trap waiting to happen. Some of us are responsible for the bulk of the country's seafood, oil, natural gas, estuaries, etc. It's called home.
You may consider the majority of the Netherlands, portions of Boston, Miami, Wilmington, Washington DC, Long Island in that. I believe it was Bo Gritz who started a "settlement" subdivision in the 1980's in Idaho because of all survivalist issues (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, fires, earthquakes, etc.), Idaho was in the best shape overall.

/leaving it at that

Steve

Thanks Steve for pointing that out. It gets tiring seeing the "you choose to live below sea level" so you get what you deserve,it's your fault type of posts. I consider those insulting. Louisiana contributes alot to this country IMHO.

Those posts are a bit insulting. And I think it would be hard for anyone to question LA's contribution to the US. Or TX. Or FL.

I'm afraid of what we'll be seeing in TX by week's end. Unfortunately, it's like watching a train wreck in slo-mo.

[soonertwister]

All I know about Ike is that I'll likely want to throw up before he goes ashore. I sure don't like the tendencies. There are 6.5 million people in the Greater Houston area, and right now things look pretty rough for Galveston, the Bay, and most of that area.

Major evacuations are about to begin.

[PTPatrick]

Just got off phone with mom...she said water is already a little up in the Bayou behin the house near AL state line in MS. Not much but a little high than typical high tide. I suspect MS coast gets some TS gusts tomorrow in rainbands. Heck if the TS winds expand anymore they might get sustained.

[smw1981]

"For what it is worth, the 9/11 0z runs of the hurricane models (excluding the GFDL, which is not yet available) continued to feature a shift farther to the north. A number of models brings Ike onshore in north Texas, quite close to the border with Louisiana." - Don Sutherland's PM forecast tonight

I wasn't sure if everyone had seen this, but I think it is important. I hope LA peeps are getting ready too because apparently they could be the next target.

(This is in the Tropical Analysis thread under his forecasts...for some reason I can't link it.)

[PTPatrick]

How many are even out....GFS is just now getting to 42 hours and doesnt look any different

[lbvbl]

Question for Houston residents... I have family on the Harris/Montgomery County border (about 45 min NW of Houston), and I'm just wondering based on the current track what kind of conditions they will receive? I'm guessing ts force winds because they're so far inland, but is it possible that they get hurricane force winds? The reason I am asking is because they're taking this extremely lightly.

[teal61]

BAMS and LBAR are the only ones i see that are east of GLS. Well the CLIP is way east but it is what it is....

[Derek Ortt]

Derek, Wxman57, AFM .. I am in Katy roughly 35 miles 40 miles WEST of Houston, from what I can tell if the storm comes up through Freeport heading North the proximity of the eye will be very close correct? Will I see significant hurricane force winds here inland do you think? I looked at the NHC wind field potential and all I can come up with is a 20% chance. If that is not accurate then what should I look at to give me a better idea. hopefully this will help others on the board and not just me.
Thanks in advance for all you do on here..

a direct hit may bring you sustained cane winds with gusts over 100

however, more likely is hurricane force GUSTS.

[PTPatrick]

Gotta love NAM...landfall at the mouth of the Rio Grande...

[Tireman4]

From someone who lives close to them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

This should help.

[vbhoutex]

Derek, Wxman57, AFM .. I am in Katy roughly 35 miles 40 miles WEST of Houston, from what I can tell if the storm comes up through Freeport heading North the proximity of the eye will be very close correct? Will I see significant hurricane force winds here inland do you think? I looked at the NHC wind field potential and all I can come up with is a 20% chance. If that is not accurate then what should I look at to give me a better idea. hopefully this will help others on the board and not just me.
Thanks in advance for all you do on here..

Per Jeff Lindner with HDFCD and one of the pro mets at S2K we can probably expect 80-100 mph sustained in most of the Houston area if the current track holds. When Alicia came through and the eye went over West Houston we had around 70 mph sustained in the Spring Branch area. Alicia was weaker than Ike is expected to be.

[Kludge]

Exact day of the week, exact time... RITA. I'm SO OUTTA HERE TONIGHT.

Cameron is still in the cone, doesn't look good for Texas now, but it isn't impossible for a Louisiana hit, based on the cone.

Ed....

I'm not a big believer in karma/jinx/fate ...but the next time you post a "season over for Texas" thread, I'm sending jasons' body guards over to see you And if you see my house floating down the bayou, please rescue my pc, so that I can remind you of this request.

[smw1981]

How many are even out....GFS is just now getting to 42 hours and doesnt look any different

I have no idea...like I said, I got that from the Tropical Analysis forum.. I'm sorry I'm not much help!

[soonertwister]

Question for Houston residents... I have family on the Harris/Montgomery County border (about 45 min NW of Houston), and I'm just wondering based on the current track what kind of conditions they will receive? I'm guessing ts force winds because they're so far inland, but is it possible that they get hurricane force winds? The reason I am asking is because they're taking this extremely lightly.

My personal and unprofessional opinion is that TS winds are a very optimistic given the size of the wind fields for Ike, and the fact that the area is significantly closer to the projected "bullseye path" of Ike right now. If they are prepared to face category 2 winds, and possibly strong ones at that, then they will be ready. If they don't think they need to seal their windows with well-secured plywood, then they probably aren't nearly prepared for what they may be facing.

None of this is close to written in stone, but why would you even want to take the chance when you are so very close to the forecast track of this storm?

[lbvbl]

From someone who lives close to them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

This should help.

Thanks for that tool... it's really useful