ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Eclipse over, you can see that dry slot on the west side:

You can also see the outer eyewall taking over.

P.S. 94 kt FL

[Nederlander]

OK, I'll go to bed if someone answers this with atleast SOME confidence.

Since the models have converged again on Matagorda, do you expect the NHC track to shift back down the coast? Because only one model takes it near Galveston.

The 5AM track determines whether or not I leave.

I would leave. I think once the trof approaches the models will inch ever so slightly north with landfall near freeport or galv. GFDL is pretty reliable... thats just MHO... Get out of there.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[Wx_Warrior]

All about ratings...JOKE

[Duddy]

OK, I'll go to bed if someone answers this with atleast SOME confidence.

Since the models have converged again on Matagorda, do you expect the NHC track to shift back down the coast? Because only one model takes it near Galveston.

The 5AM track determines whether or not I leave.

I would leave. I think once the trof approaches the models will inch ever so slightly north with landfall near freeport or galv. GFDL is pretty reliable... thats just MHO... Get out of there.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[/quote]

Alright, I'm off to bed. Tomorrow is going to be the most stressful day of my entire 21 year life.

Atleast I'll have my iPhone with me. I call it my Mobile Command Center (MCC).

[commuter]

MIMIC shows the double eyewall quite clearly. Looks like its losing strength, but then hangs on...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_09L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

[Pebbles]

Do not look at the line. There is a cone for a reason.. it's there because there is a margin or error with these storms. Again, don't look at the line.. it almost always shifts... and as a pro met on these boards has pointed out, research has shown, it's often to the right.

DO NOT look at the line. If you are in the cone and your area is under evacuations.. then you should evacuate.

I hate that dang line...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon just found 97kt flight level wind!

[soney]

Went to Walmart and HEB tonight, only found water at HEB. Walmart was out of C & D batteries, water, bug spray, and most camping supplies. I didn't think to check the tuna. HEB did have a little bit of water left and had plenty of bug spray.

Both stores were fairly busy, but I'd say HEB was handling it much better, they even had a cop directing people at the gas pumps.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Recon just found 97kt flight level wind!

97 knots at 700 millibars=87.3 knots at the surface. But look how broad and messy that outter eye wall is; there is no way this won't have a short term weaking and pressure rise once the inner eye wall finally dies, and this thing takes over. It is to broad and snakey. This storm can't possibly reenforce that outter eye wall fast enough to make up for what the inner has at this time.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

In the Northeast quad the strongest winds are now being found in the outer eye-wall. 97kts in outer and 84kts in inner! also pressure should be about 945mb

[Brent]

944.8 extrap. Down maybe 1 or 2 mb's from earlier.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In the Northeast quad the strongest winds are now being found in the outer eye-wall. 97kts in outer and 84kts in inner! also pressure should be about 945mb

Wow, the 85h shown a very broken outter eye wall about 3-4 hours ago...I guest it can change fast.

[Nexus]

Ok looks like they have now encountered the double wind maxima. And it looks like the inner wind maxima is still the strongest.

The area of lower winds is that strange "handle" Ike has right now in the NW Quad, looking at the sat pics.

That may be so but looking at microwave data there is a weak disorganized outer eye-wall structure. However it does look like the inner eye-wall is weakening and the outer one is taking over.

You were right before, those lower winds were far too close to the center to be that handle-like slot of dry air. Just needed my Google Earth sat pic to update under the recon

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

In the Northeast quad the strongest winds are now being found in the outer eye-wall. 97kts in outer and 84kts in inner! also pressure should be about 945mb

Wow, the 85h shown a very broken outter eye wall about 3-4 hours ago...I guest it can change fast.

that 85h that I posted that showed the very disorganized outer eye-wall is now more then 6 hours old. The newest image is this one from 3:10z:

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

You were right before, those lower winds were far too close to the center to be that handle-like slot of dry air. Just needed my Google Earth sat pic to update under the recon

Yeah in that dry slot they were actually finding 60kts+ winds strange considering there was no convection there at the time.

[dwg71]

4 hour movement .23N .76W 285 or so based on recon vdm

Also pressure up from 4 hours ago 2mb

winds still at 100 low cat 2 atm

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Well recon still are not reporting concentric eye-walls. If Ike never finishes its eye wall replacement cycle then the strongest winds will not be felt where the center makes landfall but it will be felt 36miles to the north of where the center makes landfall or at least thats where they are finding the strongest flight level winds. Looks like the strongest surface winds are being found with in 5 miles of the center though.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

4 hour movement .23N .76W 285 or so based on recon vdm

Also pressure up from 4 hours ago 2mb

winds still at 100 low cat 2 atm

Pressure may be up 2mb with in the last 4 hours but its down 1 mb with in the last hour.

[dwg71]

good news would be no more intensifiction, better news would be some weakening.

intensity forecasts are soooo tough.

[superfly]

Yeah in that dry slot they were actually finding 60kts+ winds strange considering there was no convection there at the time.

At flight level, sure. Without convection, those winds do not mix down to the surface.