ATL: IKE Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Ike has not changed much, but it is still a large hurricane and that is really concerning for me. I would not be surprised if it gets stronger into Category 3+. I have heard on the radio, it could be a Category 3 or 4 at landfall.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think Ike has reached his peak. Conditions are favorable for strengthening in the GOM and he's been in the GOM for over 2 days. 100 mph is still pretty strong and the wind field is large so I'd still expect dangerous conditions.

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[jinftl]

Hopefully these people will at least go to designated shelters. It is frightening when you hear these things...we have read the potential surge implications for the texas and sw la coasts...people not drowning will be luck in where they are in relation to the eye...not due to any planning on their part.

The storm on land will be very survivable in a non-surge zone safe place....what is not survivable is being in a surge zone for a surge more-line with a cat 4. Water rising 5 or 6 feet in LA, AL, MS is a neon-bright clue of that.

No, I'm not talking about getting people in non-surge zones to evac.

As Rita proved, it is virtually impossible to effectively empty Harris and Galveston Counties in a short period of time without a lot of problems. If residents don't live in a storm surge zone, they are told to shelter in place.

But what I'm talking about are people in the surge zones who are choosing to stay.

I read on the Houston Chron site earlier that a spokesman for the Galveston mayor said:

"She said many Galveston residents were ignoring the evacuation order this time and taking their chances because of memories of grueling evacuation journeys that lasted 20 hours to 30 hours in 2005.

"A large percentage is not going to leave based on the fiasco last time," she said.

I sure hope that is changing or will change in the hours to come...

Hurricane fatiuge is really setting in bad - not just in Texas, but all along the gulf coast. The period of increased activity in the last decade is taking its toll on people in Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama and Florida. Several strikes from tropical depressions to major hurricanes, multiple evacuations, its causing problems.

I just hope people in low lying areas get out, otherwise they will be in grave danger even if Ike weakens to a TS or cat 1 because the ocean simply can't slow down as fast as the atmosphere, and the water will keep pushing into Galveston Bay until Ike is gone.

[Ptarmigan]

Personally, I think all of this discussion about "Ike is a 1, Ike is a 2" are moot and dangerous. People may hear "Cat 2" winds and think, well, that's not so bad, so I'll avoid the traffic and ride this out.

But what about Cat 5 like water? That's potentially what's coming.

Already, watching the TV feed on KTRK, water is covering beaches along the Texas coast, is to the bottom of the sea wall at Galveston (two hours before LOW tide), and Ike is still 30 or so hours from landfall.

Read Jeff Masters blog from this afternoon or Derek's forecast. The water from this storm is HUGE and potentially CATASTROPHIC and it is currently targeting one of the most populated areas in the United States.

Finally, Katrina was weakening steadily when it hit Mississippi but we all remember the obliterated Mississippi coastline.

A large Category 1 or 2 hurricane is a LOT MORE dangerous than a small major hurricane. I rather have Hurricane Charley over my area than some monsterous hurricane like Katrina or Ike. Well, I don't any hurricane over me.

[Sanibel]

I think Ike has reached his peak.

I'm not sure. It could be the sunset angle but Ike has better form in the last frames combined with a partly visible eye. It is definitely wrapped better on the west side.

If the eye blows clear it won't be a good sign. Right now the eye is becoming slightly more visible. Not a sign of peaking out nor is the better symmetry.

[Annie Oakley]

We have incoming surge, rainfall and lots of tree and powerline
damage...why people would want to stay is beyond me. Except maybe they don't think their animals will be okay? They really need to be in touch with the local emergency coordinators who have prepped for situations like these and who have the full financial and logistic support of the State and Federal governments. Call 211 and express your concern! The Texas Governor'sOffice of Emergency Management has stated that they will 'leave nobody behind'. If you don't let someone know what you need then they cannot be there for you. Call 211 or 311 Texans! We are down to 16 hours or so...

[Cape Verde]

I have a sinking feeling in my gut. Not just because the NHC draws the line over my house, although that's reason enough.

They were showing a shot of a young couple boarding up their house, from a helicopter live, in Surfside. The house was right on the beach and the waves were actually coming within a couple feet of the house right now.

There is no way in hell that house will be there on noon on Sunday. The couple should have been gathering the last things they could salvage from the house instead of screwing plywood on the windows.

There is going to be enormous destruction, and there surely will be at least several deaths by oldtimers who survived Alicia and figure they can certainly handle an Ike who doesn't want to seem to get above a 2 today.

I fear for the refineries. I fear for myself. I'll admit it. I'm scared.

[fasterdisaster]

I think Ike has reached his peak. Conditions are favorable for strengthening in the GOM and he's been in the GOM for over 2 days. 100 mph is still pretty strong and the wind field is large so I'd still expect dangerous conditions.

You have no reasoning for this.

[cheekygeek]

I think Ike has reached his peak.

It's possible. But the latest offical forecast discussion says:

The pressure has risen somewhat during the day to values similar to what they were 24 hours ago. I suspect that they will begin to fall again once we have a well-developed eyewall. This forecast assumes that the core will come together, though this process may take 24 hours to complete. Therefore, only slight intensification is expected in the short-term, followed by rapid intensification once the core comes together. If the core does not come back together, Ike will likely landfall as a category 1 or 2 hurricane.

[dixiebreeze]

Just heard from our grandson in Houston. He said it's chaos with people trying to figure out where to go. He's a mixed martial arts fighter (undefeated) and had a big fight cancelled in Miami last Wed. due to Ike. He's going to try and find a bus to Ft. Hood where his brother is stationed. Have another grandson in New Orleans with a standby crew.

Sooo, we have plenty to be concerned about with Ike.

[Brent]

I think Ike has reached his peak.

I'm not sure. It could be the sunset angle but Ike has better form in the last frames combined with a partly visible eye. It is definitely wrapped better on the west side.

If the eye blows clear it won't be a good sign. Right now the eye is becoming slightly more visible. Not a sign of peaking out nor is the better symmetry.

I agree, I was just looking at it and it does look better, though it could be temporary(would watch it though) I'm not saying it's going to RI or bomb or anything like that, but it's certainly not weakening either.

[KWT]

Ptarmigan, I think a lot of people underestimate just how strong cat-2's really, its like some sort of mind block where if its not a major...its not major!

But with such a huge wind field and a massive storm surge, more like a cat-4, this is going to be a big deal...

Think it as a hurricane Dolly on steriods!

[jinftl]

The key to saving lives is people getting out of the surge zone. Even staying inland in Houston in a place that is storm-ready will be fine....they tell people on the beaches here to go to a friend's house or stay with family who live inland and have storm shutters. It will be nasty when the power is out but it is better than drowning.

Of course people have every right and reason to leave the area altogether....but in a safe structure in an inland location...this storm will be survivable.

Just heard from our grandson in Houston. He said it's chaos with people trying to figure out where to go. He's a mixed martial arts fighter (undefeated) and had a big fight cancelled in Miami last Wed. due to Ike. He's going to try and find a bus to Ft. Hood where his brother is stationed. Have another grandson in New Orleans with a standby crew.

Sooo, we have plenty to be concerned about with Ike.

[fasterdisaster]

I think Ike has reached his peak.

It's possible. But the latest offical forecast discussion says:

The pressure has risen somewhat during the day to values similar to what they were 24 hours ago. I suspect that they will begin to fall again once we have a well-developed eyewall. This forecast assumes that the core will come together, though this process may take 24 hours to complete. Therefore, only slight intensification is expected in the short-term, followed by rapid intensification once the core comes together. If the core does not come back together, Ike will likely landfall as a category 1 or 2 hurricane.

While that statement is true, it is not from the NHC, it is from Derek Ortt.

[Ptarmigan]

Ptarmigan, I think a lot of people underestimate just how strong cat-2's really, its like some sort of mind block where if its not a major...its not major!

But with such a huge wind field and a massive storm surge, more like a cat-4, this is going to be a big deal...

Think it as a hurricane Dolly on steriods!

Sadly, you are right. When Hurricane Mitch made landfall on Central America, it was only a Category 1 hurricane. However, most of the death came from the flooding rains which claimed 18,000 lives. Hurricane Fifi of 1974 was also a Category 2 hurricane, which also caused massive flooding in Central America and this was before landfall, which claimed 8,000 lives.

[Derek Ortt]

I think Ike has reached his peak.

It's possible. But the latest offical forecast discussion says:

The pressure has risen somewhat during the day to values similar to what they were 24 hours ago. I suspect that they will begin to fall again once we have a well-developed eyewall. This forecast assumes that the core will come together, though this process may take 24 hours to complete. Therefore, only slight intensification is expected in the short-term, followed by rapid intensification once the core comes together. If the core does not come back together, Ike will likely landfall as a category 1 or 2 hurricane.

note: that is from the nwhhc forecast, not the NHC forecast

[Txdivermom]

Won't be hard at all for Ike to earn a place on this list...I believe Jeff Masters made an estimate earliert that this could be a $10 to $30 billion damage cost event...

Costliest known Atlantic hurricanes as of 2007
(2007 USD) Cost
(billions) Name Year
$81.2 Hurricane Katrina
$38.1 Hurricane Andrew
$30.4 Hurricane Wilma
$18.1 Hurricane Ivan
$16.2 Hurricane Charley
$15.23 Hurricane Agnes
$14.1 Hurricane Hugo
$10.5 Hurricane Rita
$10.4 Hurricane Frances
$9.35 Hurricane Betsy

This is adjusted for inflation just so everyone knows.

7 of those top 10 costliest systems made landfall in Florida with Katrina only as a CAT 1 though.

Andrew was so costly because it hit both FL and LA. It did some pretty major damage in LA in addition to FL. (and yes, I know FL was devasted, but this awful storm double dipped)

[baitism]

The visible is starting to look much better. The shear must be subsiding because the outflow is getting better. I think the IR will start looking better soon.

[BobHarlem]

See most all the local TV in Houston together at once here.

[cycloneye]