ATL: IKE Discussion

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PTPatrick
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10441 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:05 am

Sounds like Ike is fighting shear now...and as Derek has mentioned, that prolly let some more dry air in. In any case, if strongest winds a 60 miles away from center. Even if houston gets this rigth over it, it might be spared the strongest winds, as though would be more toward Jefferson and chambers.
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#10442 Postby funster » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:05 am

Some oil freighter is stuck out on in the path of the storm? Says KHOU live http://www.khou.com/video/?nvid=178826& ... s&noad=yes 22 ppl on it. Seems they should have been well out of the way by now - maybe they had mechanical trouble.
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Re:

#10443 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:06 am

HURAKAN wrote: .... pic ....

superfly, terrible is the damage it will do. It looks great and maybe poised to intensify.


OK, CNN mentioned that it could strenghten, but what makes you think so ?
Last edited by Bunkertor on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#10444 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:06 am

AZRainman wrote:
THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. HOWEVER...IKE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0841.shtml


I think the SHIPS model has been missing the shear from day 1 - since Ike left Cuba, the high pressure over south texas has provided a northerly flow over the western half of Ike, pumping dry air in as well.

That's a good thing, otherwise we'd have a 4/5 on our hands.
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Re:

#10445 Postby superfly » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:06 am

KWT wrote:superfly, it looks a little messy now but its still a pretty decent looking system, I doubt its weakening...still it really doesn't make a huge difference overall now, the main story will be the surge and that is set in stone now.

It's not weakening, it's just not strengthening either. It will probably be steady state until it starts feeling land interaction, which is when I think it will weaken a bit.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10446 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:06 am

boca wrote:What's the best tv channel feed in Houston to use for info?



Not showing bias, but http://www.khou.com. Live streaming. Also on XM Channel 247.


For all those in the path of this entity ( and that is a large amount of folk here), stay safe and ride it out.
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#10447 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:07 am

tolakram, its about 2 and a half foot, here is that slosh link which gives you an idea:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i45_gl2.gif
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10448 Postby ravyrn » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:10 am

What is Lake Charles looking to get from this storm? The Storm Surge map looked a bit scary. I was checking weather.com and it forecasted winds of 35-40 mph. But on TWC the local forecast called for 40-60mph winds with higher gusts. I'm not in a flood prone area in Lake Charles and decided to wait this one out. But what can I expect from this? Will the storm surge affect us here in Lake Charles? I'm probably 4 miles southeast of the lakes. We don't have a mandatory evacuation and I was plannig on fielding this one, but if a promet thinks it prudent to leave I shall do so asap.
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Re: Re:

#10449 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:11 am

Bunkertor wrote:OK, CNN mentioned that it could strenghten, but what makes you think so ?


Not only CNN but the NHC thinks it will be a major hurricane when it makes landfall and it will have to intensify if it wants to go from 105 mph to at least 111 mph. Furthermore, satellite images show very cold clouds around the center. I think the main inhibitor at this point is Ike itself, it's too big for its own good.
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Re: Re:

#10450 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:11 am

superfly wrote:It's not weakening, it's just not strengthening either. It will probably be steady state until it starts feeling land interaction, which is when I think it will weaken a bit.


Yeah seems to be in a steady state right now, still surge is the main issue and even if it weakens a touch before landfall its not going to matter all that much now...
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Re:

#10451 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:14 am

KWT wrote:tolakram, its about 2 and a half foot, here is that slosh link which gives you an idea:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i45_gl2.gif


Interesting, thanks.

Here is the height at the bay entrance

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_m ... =Tide+Data
Image

It looks like it's already above slosh predictions if I read that right.
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#10452 Postby PhillyWX » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:14 am

Waves coming up over the seawall at Galveston already.

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... h-ike.html
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#10453 Postby Solaris » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:14 am

Oil platform 42361 now clocking at 108 kt!!
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10454 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:14 am

BUOY 42361 1145 27.55 -92.49
Wind Speed (WSPD): 108.8 kts = 125.5552
Last edited by drezee on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#10455 Postby AZRainman » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:15 am

Last edited by AZRainman on Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10456 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:15 am

deltadog03 wrote:Oh, I agree....Spatial wise this is a monster. Lots of people are going to feel his wrath. I guess my only thing is, it could be worse as far as winds. Thankfully this won't be a 4 at landfall. Surge...well, thats gonna be the biggest story....



Agreed with regard to size. If the storm continues this ragged appearance I would be surprised if it were above a Cat 1 on LF. (Just a
guess with the looks of Ike)
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10457 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:17 am

Thanks for the links, azrainman. Hopefully, it won't be as bad as predicted... very scary to think about it.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#10458 Postby PTPatrick » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:17 am

how far is that oil platform away from center
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#10459 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:18 am

Water already past the beach at Kemah and still before high tide there...

As for the high tide, thats really worrying, high tide at 3.45 is pretty much when the highest surge comes along, what terrible timing, if the Galveston seawall is going to be topped, that will be when it occurs...
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#10460 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 12, 2008 7:18 am

Coastal Residents Warned about Dangerous Storm Surge

September 11, 2008 - 9:31PM
News Staff

It has become a dangerous situation along the Southeast Texas Coast. The National Weather Service is now predicting a 20 foot storm surge.

Such a surge would breach the levee system that protects Mid and South Jefferson County. Other coastal areas like Bridge City would also be impacted.

The situation is so serious, Groves Police and Firefighters are driving through neighborhoods using their public address systems to warn people to get out as soon as possible.

Chief Meterologist Greg Bostwick is urging people who live south of Interstate 10 to make plans to leave as soon as possisble.

KFDM
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