ATL: IKE Discussion

[Nexus]

125 mph at what elevation?

Whatever elevation the bouy is at. Since it is, I believe, a NBDC bouy I would presume 10M which is what they are all set at I believe. All that info is available on NDBC website

Is this the station you're referring to? http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

If so, it's at 122 m

edit - dang, too slow [/quote]

Yeah it's a giant Shell Oil platform, not a bouy as listed at some resources like Wunderground. Made this mistake last night.

[Weatherfreak000]

Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify. Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm.

[vbhoutex]

Obviously it is not a bouy. My bad. Elevation is as stated on the site I presume, which does make a difference.

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

Apparently not much different than saying a cat 2 with a killer surge if there are 30,000 left on galveston. funny, the 'killer' part you would think would get more attention.

I was referencing a post...not yours at all.. that stated we are not really seeing a cat 2...the nhc has held it that high artificially

Well, they'd be stupid not to. Sure, from a science point of view it's not 'correct' but what do you think how the public would react if they said Cat 1 but with a KILLER SURGE.

People would read Cat 1 and think it won't be worse than say Humberto (which was BAD ENOUGH).

[HurricaneHunter914]

May not be a traditional eye, but this eye-like feature has been persisting for several hours now. And yes, the tower popping on the SE side is the coldest top we've seen in the gulf so far with Ike (14:45z):

But the west side looks open.

[TCmet]

Buoy 42361: 125mph sustained

Buoy 42035: 20 miles E of Galveston: sustained at 33.5 g 55.

From Harris county emergency management.(Jeff Lindner)

We are now seeing 2-4 feet of surge even into the bay areas and the W end of Galveston Island is all but impassable except for really high ligt vehicles. Surge is also coming into the East end of the Island near UTMB. 61st street in Galveston under water in places as well as the Kemah Boardwalk on Galveston bay. Unfortunately this is not the "real" surge, just the beginnings.

42361 is an oil platform - anemometer is 400ft ASL, this ob (110kts) was referenced in the 11am discussion - with a reduction down to advisory level of 90kts at the surface.

[rtd2]

Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify. Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm.

thats not going to go over well

[DESTRUCTION5]

Apparently not much different than saying a cat 2 with a killer surge if there are 30,000 left on galveston. funny, the 'killer' part you would think would get more attention.

I was referencing a post...not yours at all.. that stated we are not really seeing a cat 2...the nhc has held it that high artificially

Well, they'd be stupid not to. Sure, from a science point of view it's not 'correct' but what do you think how the public would react if they said Cat 1 but with a KILLER SURGE.

People would read Cat 1 and think it won't be worse than say Humberto (which was BAD ENOUGH).

Yes i think its painfully obvious that wind is far from the focus...We have Major roadways flooded ith 15 hrs till landfall..Water is going to BURY the area and Wind no doubt will be an after thought...

[dhweather]

Obviously it is not a bouy. My bad. Elevation is as stated on the site I presume, which does make a difference.

Don't sweat it, we all believe that NDBC would only have NOAA equipment on its page. Luckily, the platforms are sharing their data, so we just have to be careful what we are reading.

[fci]

Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify. Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm.

Truly a mystifying statement

[vbhoutex]

Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify. Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm.

Maybe wind wise, but the surge is another matter. That is the HUGE problem that the entire SE TX/SW LA coastal area is going to have.

[dhweather]

What an explosion of convection on the east side.

Here's Ike's umpteenth chance to wrap around and spin up. If he doesn't this time, I think 100-110MPH will be the maximum winds.

[TCmet]

anyone have the slosh model for galveston and houston? the galveston ship channel goes right into the city of houton. anyone know if they have gates on the channel?

[Weatherfreak000]

Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify. Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm.

thats not going to go over well

Well...if people feel the need to argue...by all means. I'll take that as they want a Cat 3/4 compared to what we have now.

[Windy]

Amazing how pitiful Ike looks right now...



I am still speechless on Ike's inability to intensify. Quite a blessing for whoever gets this storm.

I know you mean well, but there is a significant probability tonight that the fatality range along the coast is going to be in the hundreds. In the low thousands if the Galveston seawall is overtopped. The wind intensity of this storm is, at this point, not as important as the surge it is going to generate.

[jinftl]

people who have stayed have made a conscious decision to do so. if the shelter option is still available and accessible, perhaps the news of the flooding taking place with the storm 200+ miles offshore and the wind yet to reach their worst will spur some last minute evacuation. preaching to the choir at this point i know...the nhc, media, govt officials have done their job....what it the proverb about 'helping those who help themselves'?

I was referencing a post...not yours at all.. that stated we are not really seeing a cat 2...the nhc has held it that high artificially

Well, they'd be stupid not to. Sure, from a science point of view it's not 'correct' but what do you think how the public would react if they said Cat 1 but with a KILLER SURGE.

People would read Cat 1 and think it won't be worse than say Humberto (which was BAD ENOUGH).

Yes i think its painfully obvious that wind is far from the focus...We have Major roadways flooded ith 15 hrs till landfall..Water is going to BURY the area and Wind no doubt will be an after thought...

[HURAKAN]

Members and guests, don't let Ike's current intensity fool you. This system is very large and even if the winds are at Category 2, which is intense in its own way, you will experience them for a long period of time if you're in its immediate path. Nonetheless, Ike's story is not its winds but the storm surge. Evacuate if you're at the coast, don't take the risk.

[TCmet]

What an explosion of convection on the east side.

Here's Ike's umpteenth chance to wrap around and spin up. If he doesn't this time, I think 100-110MPH will be the maximum winds.

If this wraps, we could finally see the long-awaited inner core, which would allow winds to finally match the pressure (cat 3).

[tolakram]

People like numbers and lines. Forecasters are going to have to learn to produce 'soft facts' if they want people to listen, unfortunately.

If you don't want people to focus on the line then don't draw the line. If you don't want people focusing on only the wind then don't use a scale that is primarily wind based.

Obviously there are people who see this as a cat 2 and are thinking they won't be in harms way and the whole thing is being over hyped. From their point of view Gustav was over-cast and Ike will be under-cast. We need better solutions that take into account normal (even if frustrating) human behavior.

Good luck to all in Ike's path!