ATL: IKE Discussion

[tallywx]

Latest VORTEX fix has it back west. Still setting up for the "worst case scenario."

[NEXRAD]

Latest tide gauges:

Sabine Pass ... 7.38 feet, forecast rise to 11.23 feet (Rita's surge here was 9.24 feet)
Calcasieu Pass ... 8.54 feet, forecast rise to 11.23 feet (Rita's surge here was 15 feet)

Surge is starting to back-up the rivers all the way inland to Lake Charles where major, record, flooding is forecast.

- Jay

[KWT]

Hurakan, yep the rainbands are coming right at LA right now, also eye really evident as well there with some ok rains on the western side as well.

[6SpeedTA95]

Guys, take it from a guy in the oil/gas industry, I'd stop what you're doing right now and go get gasoline. If the refineries get inundated with salt water it will not be a simple start up after the storm. IF they're affected by the surge then its an even bigger problem. Gasoline futures are way up right now, I filled up, my wife is today on the way home from work. This could pose some substantial problems over the next month with gasoline stockpiles.

The situation you describe is plausible. But your solution is dangerous. monst people do not have the knowledge or skill on how to stockpile gasoline. consequently, routine post-storm procedures might turn deadly when gasoline is stockpiled. deal with the storm now...the gasoline later.

What are you talking about? I never said for anyone to personally stockpile gasoline. I said this storm poses major problems to gasoline stockpiles...as in NATIONAL stock piles. We will deplete them is the point.

[bigjohn]

Air rescues on CNN with eye over 150 miles from shore...

Anyone know at what point the Coast Guard will ground the rescue choppers (wind speed) ?

I think I heard 80 knots.

You may be correct but my experience in most private aviation is more like 40-45 knots. Just don't see how you can effect rescue in helicopters in hurricane force winds without endangering the entire crew.

[KWT]

tallywx, well Ike is wobbling about, but given its pretty close to the expected track there seems to be a fair chance that its going to hit where the NHC forecast which is pretty much the worst case situation.

[bigjohn]

Guys, take it from a guy in the oil/gas industry, I'd stop what you're doing right now and go get gasoline. If the refineries get inundated with salt water it will not be a simple start up after the storm. IF they're affected by the surge then its an even bigger problem. Gasoline futures are way up right now, I filled up, my wife is today on the way home from work. This could pose some substantial problems over the next month with gasoline stockpiles.

The situation you describe is plausible. But your solution is dangerous. monst people do not have the knowledge or skill on how to stockpile gasoline. consequently, routine post-storm procedures might turn deadly when gasoline is stockpiled. deal with the storm now...the gasoline later.

What are you talking about? I never said for anyone to personally stockpile gasoline. I said this storm poses major problems to gasoline stockpiles...as in NATIONAL stock piles. We will deplete them is the point.

Well then we have clarified that for anyone who might have misinterpreted what you said as I did. Stay safe.

[tolakram]

Not a forecast, just extrapolating positions here...

[BigB0882]

Are we seeing the stair stepping of a strengthing storm?

[Stratusxpeye]

Anyone else have a SURGE in gas prices? Since this morning they changed up 25 cents a gallon!! Largest jump I've seen in a one day time frame. Another great effect of IKE.

[NEXRAD]

Per media reports, tidal flooding is occuring across Galveston Island with upwards of a foot of water up to 6 to 7 blocks in from the bay.

- Jay

[CrazyC83]

91L GFDL Run has the remnants of Ike coming off the coast of Labrador and intensifying into a Cat 1 LOL

It is quite laughable as it blows it back to a strong Cat 1 hurricane over the middle Great Lakes...

[6SpeedTA95]

Anyone else have a SURGE in gas prices? Since this morning they changed up 25 cents a gallon!! Largest jump I've seen in a one day time frame. Another great effect of IKE.

Yes and it could get much worse.

[KWT]

Strand in west Galveston under 2, sometimes 3 feet of water already, amazing given the storm is still a good 9hrs from landfall!

Also on fox news, a little roof of a shop has just fallen down and lots of stuff coming off the pier as well.

[Texas Snowman]

I think that it may be just about too late for landfall location to significantly affect the damaging and life threatening storm surge.

Obviously, there is a tremendous bubble of water being pushed by Ike through the WGOM as the live TV shots and internet information is showing.

And offshore, that dome of water is moving around the center of circulation, so there is high water to the left of the center too. I'm just not sure at this point if that will be able to be mitigated by the offshore flow.

IMO, the surge will certainly be less (on Galveston Island) if the eye goes east of there, but at this point, I'm not sure that will be enough to prevent a disaster from occurring.

Of course, that's unofficial and my .02 cents worth.

[jinftl]

Work at home so been able flip channels...i will say from what i have seen, all of the major news networks (CNN, MSNBC) and TWC have done an excellent job at describing the risk from ike....they have all basically described that we almost have 2 storms...a cat 2 for inland locations and a cat 4 for the coast. I don't think i have seen any news network underplay...or for that matter...overplay the risks.

I have heard this described by residents here....that when a storm is coming...i mean 'really coming'....you will see the tv mets talk and behave differently than if we are just 'in the cone'....not sure what it is, but i sense that from the mets on tv now regarding surge risk very clearly.

[HURAKAN]

[Praxus]

91L GFDL Run has the remnants of Ike coming off the coast of Labrador and intensifying into a Cat 1 LOL

It is quite laughable as it blows it back to a strong Cat 1 hurricane over the middle Great Lakes...

Wow I better buy plywood before everyone else in Toronto does

[thetruesms]

I think that it may be just about too late for landfall location to significantly affect the damaging and life threatening storm surge.

Obviously, there is a tremendous bubble of water being pushed by Ike through the WGOM as the live TV shots and internet information is showing.

And offshore, that dome of water is moving around the center of circulation, so there is high water to the left of the center too. I'm just not sure at this point if that will be able to be mitigated by the offshore flow.

IMO, the surge will certainly be less (on Galveston Island) if the eye goes east of there, but at this point, I'm not sure that will be enough to prevent a disaster from occurring.

Of course, that's unofficial and my .02 cents worth.

I think that's a pretty fair assessment. The exact location of landfall may change who in the area sees the worst effects, but they will be felt somewhere.

[CrazyC83]

91L GFDL Run has the remnants of Ike coming off the coast of Labrador and intensifying into a Cat 1 LOL

It is quite laughable as it blows it back to a strong Cat 1 hurricane over the middle Great Lakes...

I heard it will strengthen when it merges with a trouph up in the GL area...what would it be classified as if it does?

It would be a separate system if it merges with a trough, but if it keeps intact its circulation, it would be either a massive extratropical low or (if still tropical) a hurricane.