ATL: IKE Discussion

[Stormcenter]

If you have Direct TV satellite they broadcasting KHOU live on channel 361.

[Jason_B]

I'm afraid this storm is going to be another example of it NOT taking a category 3 or 4 to cause widespread devastation. This one reminds me a lot of Ivan, very large and lots of surge coming in.

[jaxfladude]

see above

[CronkPSU]

so at long last, do we have an eye? this is like the anti-katrina (not that katrina wasn't devastating) but a possible strengthening landfalling cat 3 hurricane and not veering away from a major US city...yikes

[Txdivermom]

Oh, I think the Galveston city manager's CYA speech is not going to go over well.

She looked about as bad as Nagin and Blanco after Katrina. Nagin and Jindal handled Gustav much better. Smaller 'cane, but they were still more prepared.

[CrazyC83]

Bad move. That could be a repeat of what happened at Lincoln High School in Hugo in 1989...

Ah yes i have friends who went through that night...

Thank God they all made it through OK! I fear a repeat is in store tonight...

[temujin]

Galveston Causeway will not be closed. People fleeing the storm are advised to cross it at their own risk. If they see water on it they should not cross it.

Is that a back-handed way of saying that you're safer trying to cross the bridge in a hurricane than you are staying on the island?

[MiamiensisWx]

2115Z GOES IR imagery:

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/5792/ikesep12081fy5.jpg

Structure has slightly improved with stronger convection and a defined eye (per radar and satellite data).

Latest satellite imagery suggests a slight jog (between WNW and N of due west) in latest frame...

Every jog is critical for Galveston (in terms of the highest surge values vs. slightly lower values).

[KWT]

Big fire in a ship depot right now, very impressive black smoke as well coming out of there looking at the video.

Won't be long before the TS force winds come in.

[terrapintransit]

so at long last, do we have an eye? this is like the anti-katrina (not that katrina wasn't devastating) but a possible strengthening landfalling cat 3 hurricane and not veering away from a major US city...yikes

OMG....and strengthening @ landfall

[Txdivermom]

Has rain started in Houston? If not, then I suspect the rise in the Bayou level (Buffalo Bayou) in Houston shown at this site is the result of Ike. This site is way inland of Galveston, near downtown Houston.

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?08074000

No rain yet on the NW side even as of 4:30.

[CronkPSU]

really bad looking loop...looks like that strong convection may wrap around at exactly the wrong time

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=AUS&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

[JenBayles]

Do slight jogs actually matter now? That eye looks big enough to engulf the entirety of Galveston Island. A job here and there at this point won't make a dam bit of difference IMO.

[CronkPSU]

Do slight jogs actually matter now? That eye looks big enough to engulf the entirety of Galveston Island. A job here and there at this point won't make a dam bit of difference IMO.

matters as far as where the largest surge goes

[Janie2006]

I think the big story with Ike inevitably will be the storm surge. I've no doubt that the flooding will cause widespread damage. The wind damage is going to be spread far inland as well, expect widespread loss of power...especially with this incoming rainband.

Unbelievable! TWC showing footage of a child rescued by helicopter from a truck stranded in flood waters. People will never learn.

[NEXRAD]

Unofficial wind gust to 71 mph recorded at Galveston.

- Jay

[Shoshana]

Galveston Causeway will not be closed. People fleeing the storm are advised to cross it at their own risk. If they see water on it they should not cross it.

Is that a back-handed way of saying that you're safer trying to cross the bridge in a hurricane than you are staying on the island?

Yeah really. That was from abc13 in Houston...they said there woudn't be any barricades or guards or anything keeping people off the bridge. Proceed at your own risk kinda deal.

That causeway is pretty high up... I'd be worried about being blown off once the winds pick up

[MiamiensisWx]

Do slight jogs actually matter now? That eye looks big enough to engulf the entirety of Galveston Island. A job here and there at this point won't make a dam bit of difference IMO.

The surge will be devastating... I was adding some factual information to the thread. The position of the RMW (relative to Galveston) will determine the surge values at that locale to a certain extent. It will be VERY high in any case...

[funster]

Do slight jogs actually matter now? That eye looks big enough to engulf the entirety of Galveston Island. A job here and there at this point won't make a dam bit of difference IMO.

matters as far as where the largest surge goes

It would have to start going NNW real quickly to help much. So much water is being pushed by Ike as it is that Galveston is going to get a very big surge regardless.

[jimguru]

Now I have seen it all.....

From ABC 13 Houston:



Captioned " Hurricane Car Safety"