ATL: IKE Discussion

[CrazyC83]

A bit old but:

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 755 PM
UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 898. WATCH NUMBER 898 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
755 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 899...

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE IKE WILL MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND MOVE INLAND NEAR THE I-45 CORRIDOR IN HOU-GLS
THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS LA/TX WITHIN THE LARGE STORM
ENVELOPE...AND A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE DESPITE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY. EXPECT
THE TORNADO THREAT TO SPREAD GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS IKE PROGRESSES NWWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 15045.


...THOMPSON

[jinftl]

wow...fox news is showing amazing video of water level pretty much level with top of seawall....partly could be perspective so looks a bit worse than really is mayb...but amazing video

[Yankeegirl]

Well so far here in west harris county the power is going on and off alot, alot of wind, but no rain here as of yet... I will get on as much as i can...

[jasons2k]

Sunset here

[HarlequinBoy]

>>Oh okay. I thought that was near New Orleans. It just seemed weird to have major effects that far away.

I was in town this morning and there were plenty of power outages. My exwife had even lost power in Old Metairie as did her whole neighborhood. They got a gust to 75 at the Lakefront in the 7:00 hour. I'm maybe 55 miles (driving) SW of the city and it's stil tropical storm conditions here - dry though. We expect to see some bands back through at some point. Thing is, there is some push from the east - high pressure? - that kind of moved the rest of the wrap around further to our west. The winds are rushing though - prety much sustained in the 20's gusting occasionally into the high 40's with an isolated 50ish. We're a long way from the storm and it's been like this for well over 24 hours.

I shot a video this afternoon back behind the tracks in a cane field when winds were sustained into the 30's. I'll offload and upload it.

Steve

Wow. This really is a huge storm, no joke.

I was pretty shocked to see inland tropical storm wind warnings for extreme southwest Mississippi.

[CajunMama]

cnn reported that the levees near New Orleans are failing

I don't think this is that serious, or else all of the cable news community would be on top of this by now. Possibly one levee NEAR the city but I doubt any of the major ones are in peril.

I'm listening to WWL 870AM in New Orleans and there's no reports of levee failures. Only the temporary one down in lower Jefferson Parish in Lafitte. Plaquemine parish also had a breach, but same levee failed for Gustav.

Gulfsouthla, one of our members, is down in lafitte. She was still there this afternoon with water surrounding her home which is built 8' off the ground. Let's hope she and her family made the decision to leave.

[Jessie]

Geraldo on seawall....'if people only knew to listen to the projections'....waves crashing over seawall...wall in tact though

When the media stays, but the public is required to go, it makes you wonder how dangerous it really is. I think that when they say "all will die who stays" and certain people "in the know " are not leaving it makes others feel they are not being told the entire story. Maybe that's why some people do stay -- they've seen this time and time again.

[jasons2k]

Well so far here in west harris county the power is going on and off alot, alot of wind, but no rain here as of yet... I will get on as much as i can...

I've been lucky, still no brownouts

Gotta be gusting close to 50 now though

[hiflyer]

Last advisory before landfall in the next half hour...last chance for it to get to a Cat 3. Not that it matters that much right now.

No, I'm pretty sure there will be at least 1 more advisory before landfall after this one.

Agreed...looks like about 30 more miles to go before the center reaches the shoreline....

[CronkPSU]

[gboudx]

Gulfsouthla, one of our members, is down in lafitte. She was still there this afternoon with water surrounding her home which is built 8' off the ground. Let's hope she and her family made the decision to leave.

At 8', she'll be fine if she stayed. The water won't get that high. My parents stayed in Barataria, which is across the bayou from Lafitte and they are 15' up. My father-in-law isn't as fortunate. He just got the money from FEMA to raise his house after flooding from Rita in 05. He was just getting estimates when he had to leave for Gustav.

[jlauderdal]

Anyone watching the blue loon on the seawall on KHOU?

yeah, he is the brother of the guy that was kiteusrfing on fort lauderdale beach during fay and bought it on a1a

[MetSul Weather Center]

Hurricane Ike surge breaches, overtops some levees, floods homes, roadways across state/quote]

That levee report is roughly 7 hours old. Not much use right now.

Try to write an e-mail complaining to the main newspaper in NOLA because this is the leading story in their website.

[tolakram]

This is not a forecast.

[Sanibel]

Eye will pass over Galveston. Moon will come out.

[jasons2k]

Geraldo on seawall....'if people only knew to listen to the projections'....waves crashing over seawall...wall in tact though

When the media stays, but the public is required to go, it makes you wonder how dangerous it really is. I think that when they say "all will die who stays" and certain people "in the know " are not leaving it makes others feel they are not being told the entire story. Maybe that's why some people do stay -- they've seen this time and time again.

What they don't realize is that the media is all at the San Luis Hotel built on the foundation of a WWII gunnery bunker, with a foundation ~25ft above sea level. It is where the city moves all essential personnell as well. Essentially, it is the only true safe fortress on the island.

[Windy]

FYI: Current SLOSH models can be accessed at this FTP site:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

Galveston SLOSH model is here:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/i48_gl2.gif

MAX SLOSH:

[Steve]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTRonpxcdTI

Here you go. I report, you decide.

Steve

[PTPatrick]

Well, just found out my cousins Apt in Seabrook underwater. Her husband is a doctor was supposed to be working at a hospital in Houston but the closed it because they felt it would flood. He almost had no place to go but another hospital said he could work there tonight so he is safe. My cousin is safe too thank god.

[jinftl]

pretty much worst case if that is track ultimately

This is not a forecast.