ATL: IKE Discussion

[kurtpage]

reporters on galveston seawall now in eye.

There aren't any reporters on the seawall, as was said they are all several feet above it.

Again...splitting hairs. I think that we all knew what capepoint was saying.

I hope that none of the reporters are injured while reporting for this storm....

[jimguru]

what about reverse surge, once the storm passes, the water would be coming out of the bay onto the unprotected backside of GI, I've heard it happened in a past hurricane, what are the chances of that happening? If that happens the seawall is useless.

I think Steve Lyons was talking about this happening? Does someone know exactly what he was talking about?

NHC just had someone on MSNBC; apparently everyone forgot that the backside of the storm will overflow the island from the other direction when it passes north of Houston and the wind changes direction. Add in the water that is in the bay has to go somewhere when the winds reverse direction and he made perfect sense. Wish I had caught his name.

So in theory when the surge reverses, it could suck alot of things / people out to sea? ( in theory?)

[cycloneye]

WTNT54 KNHC 130553
TCEAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 29.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
EYE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE GALVESTON AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

THE NATIONAL OCEAN SURFACE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 85 MPH...137 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[mtm4319]

0.1 N, 0.2 W in the past hour.

[soonertwister]

It looks like the Seawall is doing its job. Geraldo may be there all night. Water is over topping the wall but the surge is not over the wall. Of course it is in the Dead Center of the Eye Wall. So Who knows. When the southern part of the eye wall comes up maybe surge will be worse. I Don't know how that works?

There was definitely a time when the surge was over the seawall, and I'm not convinced it's done. I'm afraid of what we'll see when the first cameras are brought out in the morning.

[fasterdisaster]

The area from Bolivar Peninsula to Sabine Pass will likely have the strongest winds and highest surge from Ike. What's the highest elevation on B. Peninsula? I have to think that the entire peninsula is experiencing near max wind and max surge, and probability of surviving there if you aren't in a very, very sturdy, reinforced building, I fear, is going to be tough.

According to GE, only about 2 feet.

[jlauderdal]

[bighaben]

So in theory when the surge reverses, it could suck alot of things / people out to sea? ( in theory?)

Perhaps, I know a local met briefly covered it yesterday, but he didn't give any numbers at all! I'm seriously wondering if this is something Galveston really has to watch for and many people may have overlooked.

[jasons2k]

what about reverse surge, once the storm passes, the water would be coming out of the bay onto the unprotected backside of GI, I've heard it happened in a past hurricane, what are the chances of that happening? If that happens the seawall is useless.

I think Steve Lyons was talking about this happening? Does someone know exactly what he was talking about?

From what I understand...Galveston Bay will flood into the backside of Galveston when the winds change direction...

It's the other way around. Winds have been from the N & NE, almost parallel to the coast but bringing-in surge from the backside. Assuming this west wobble holds, after the eye passes, winds will switch from the south (onshore flow), and that's when the major surge will occur.

But if Ike takes another wobble east, that may not happen. It's very, very close.

[jinftl]

Dr, Lyons said worst winds and damage will be from east end of galveston and east of there. Also said if circulation stays just to the east of houston, they will not see the worst, esp west side. But still no picnic.

what about reverse surge, once the storm passes, the water would be coming out of the bay onto the unprotected backside of GI, I've heard it happened in a past hurricane, what are the chances of that happening? If that happens the seawall is useless.

I think Steve Lyons was talking about this happening? Does someone know exactly what he was talking about?

NHC just had someone on MSNBC; apparently everyone forgot that the backside of the storm will overflow the island from the other direction when it passes north of Houston and the wind changes direction. Add in the water that is in the bay has to go somewhere when the winds reverse direction and he made perfect sense. Wish I had caught his name.

[capepoint]

reporters on galveston seawall now in eye.

There aren't any reporters on the seawall, as was said they are all several feet above it.

excuse me. I should have said that the reporters standing on the base of the hill across the flooded roadway from the seawall are in the eye now. 70 or 80 feet IS a huge distance.....

[Aristotle]

reporters on galveston seawall now in eye.

There aren't any reporters on the seawall, as was said they are all several feet above it.

Dude take a chill pill NO ONE on this board actually thinks Geraldo and the rest of the reports are actually standing on the 17 precipice waiting to be sucked out to sea. WE all get that they are across the street from the Seawall. Please take anyone saying "Reporter at the Seawall" to mean someone referring to a reporter reporting at, near or generally close to the actual Seawall. Saavy?

[mtm4319]

The area from Bolivar Peninsula to Sabine Pass will likely have the strongest winds and highest surge from Ike. What's the highest elevation on B. Peninsula? I have to think that the entire peninsula is experiencing near max wind and max surge, and probability of surviving there if you aren't in a very, very sturdy, reinforced building, I fear, is going to be tough.

According to GE, only about 2 feet.

I'm not sure if Google Earth is foolproof in this case, but I did find some 6-foot spots.

[fci]

Watching Fox is like passing an accident.
You just have to look.
Even though you don't want to.
It is horrific but you feel compelled to see it.

He asked their on air Met if it was true what he heard that after the eye passed the winds would come from the other direction.

She DID NOT KNOW!!!

She said, I guess we will see since things are counterclockwise.

Quite the Met, I would say.

Like I said, the coverage on KHOU (DirecTV feed), CNN, TWC and MSNBC is so much better but it is like watching the circus when you watch the swath of miss-information from Geraldo and Friends.....

[jinftl]

There's the 137! km/hr that is

WTNT54 KNHC 130553
TCEAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 29.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
EYE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE GALVESTON AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO.

THE NATIONAL OCEAN SURFACE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 85 MPH...137 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

I'm sorry, but am I the only one amused there is a place off the Texas coast called "Pleasure Pier" and, especially, "Pleasure Island"?

[fasterdisaster]

It's the other way around. Winds have been from the N & NE, almost parallel to the coast but bringing-in surge from the backside. Assuming this west wobble holds, after the eye passes, winds will switch from the south (onshore flow), and that's when the major surge will occur.

But if Ike takes another wobble east, that may not happen. It's very, very close.

You might already know this, but you're about to get hit by the core winds and rain.

[Derek Ortt]

---

the strongest winds are to the east of the eye. They wont move onshore for a few more hours

[jimguru]

Stream on ABC13 showing the restaurant fire now....

[fasterdisaster]

Guys the water will be the highest around high tide, which is 2-3 hours from now. Also, I'm not sure they're completely into the eye yet based on the last radar imagery although it looks close.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Unfortunately, high tide is going to be right when the reverse surge could hit.

[johngaltfla]

KRIV-Houston just updated:

20 miles SSE of Galveston, moving NW at 12. So the wobble was just that.

Houston may not get the worst, but the winds when whipped between those buildings will not be a pretty sight.