ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Landfall or is the center south of what appears to be that eye?

[soonertwister]

The "wobbles" people seem to be jumping on are looking to me as contractions of the eyewall

The path of the storm of itself is not changing to a great deal... it's basically following the NHC track, if not a little SouthWest of it

Yes, this is what I see too. It's gone from an 80 mile wide eye to about 30 miles.

I don't think so, tolakram's actually been plotting the center given by the NHC each advisory and he has been alternating between almost due north and almost due west. Right now after a north jog he looks to again be turning towards the WNW to NW

Hurricane force winds have extended WAY out from the center of this storm. Even with a smaller eyewall there will be those winds well away from the eyewall, at least for some hours.

[fci]

2 am had pressure at 953.
Texas City (per weather underground) at 2:03 was at 950.1

[mtm4319]

Official discussion:

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's too late.



I'm going to sleep.

[fasterdisaster]

This image isn't radar so if someone can find a radar picture of Ike this comparison would be even more legitimate

Compare:

Ivan


Rita


Katrina


Wilma


This just HAS to be Category 3.

[Deathray]

The "wobbles" people seem to be jumping on are looking to me as contractions of the eyewall

The path of the storm of itself is not changing to a great deal... it's basically following the NHC track, if not a little SouthWest of it

Yes, this is what I see too. It's gone from an 80 mile wide eye to about 30 miles.

I don't think so, tolakram's actually been plotting the center given by the NHC each advisory and he has been alternating between almost due north and almost due west. Right now after a north jog he looks to again be turning towards the WNW to NW

Ermm... aren't you confirmind what I was saying? lol

We've seen the wobbles go NNW then next one go WNW and during that time the eyewall has contracted and also closed (remember, before it was also open)... I think they're connected together, changes to the eye and the wobbles...

[CowboyFan]

KFDM news just reported 6 feet of water in the downtown courthouse in galveston.


http://www.kfdm.com/

[Deathray]

1.3 million + 92,000 people without power already

Surge is also showing up in Galveson Bay

(As said on TV)

[soonertwister]

KFDM news just reported 6 feet of water in the downtown courthouse in galveston.


http://www.kfdm.com/

There was another report from "high ground" in Galveston that the cars on the street, inside Sea Wall Blvd., were all under water, and that the water was basically at the level of the seawall.

Just reporting what I heard on the tee-vee...

[SouthFloridawx]

[Jason_B]

At the Clear Lake footage on TWC.

[Category 5]

Compare:

Ivan


Rita


Katrina


Wilma


This just HAS to be Category 3.

And this proves what?

[WxGuy1]

1.3 million + 92,000 people without power already

Surge is also showing up in Galveson Bay

(As said on TV)

KHOU reported 4.5 million w/o power. Not sure how accurate that is, but they reported that (relayed from some power company I think) about 10 minutes ago.

[Category 5]

:eek: At the Clear Lake footage on TWC.

By the way that's heading in the general direction of downtown.

[fci]

That 4 radar shots take up a lot of space on the page?

[fasterdisaster]

Landfall about 10 minutes away, will be 2 miles east of downtown Galveston and it WILL be able to get the tip of Galv. Island and the eye likely will partially move through central Houston. The NE eyewall will not pass through Galveston however the SE eyewall WILL so the possibility of reverse surge DOES remain.

[CowboyFan]

This storm really got its act together before landfall.......Im shocked

[fasterdisaster]

That 4 radar shots take up a lot of space on the page?

Sorry.

[mathwhizz]

Another west wobble.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

[lost cause]

KPRC -- reporting 7 feet of water on Postoffice Street (E Street) in Strand District.

I wonder if this is the reverse surge from Galveston Bay coming in.