What is NOGAPS picking up on?

[Dean4Storms]

The 00z run depicts a TC developing in the western Carib. and heads for western Gulf over the weekend.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[rockyman]

Could this be the "spark" moving across the central Caribbean this morning?

[Dean4Storms]

Does look suspicious Rockyman.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nogaps has not been a good performer this season, although, in all fairness, while it's track predictions have been generally on crack, it has been the anti-CMC, missing developing cyclones instead of predicting many spurious developments.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Better 0Z NoGaps loop, the security issue thing (as if the US Navy wants to give you a virus) may cause some issues.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Better 0Z NoGaps loop, the security issue thing (as if the US Navy wants to give you a virus) may cause some issues.

6Z run semi-similar

[gatorcane]

For the the NGOM and WGOM sake, god I hope not:

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Canadian does develop a weak Caribbean system, along with two in the Atlantic, and a hybrid system off the East Coast, ie, the Canadian is being the Canadian.



I'd say no other model support, put it at under 20% in my unofficial and amateur opinion.

[Ivanhater]

If you look at the synoptics it is very plausible..Every model showing lower pressure in the West Caribbean and with a tropical wave approaching the area should spark off development..I feel this area needs watching...

[gatorcane]

If you look at the synoptics it is very plausible..Every model showing lower pressure in the West Caribbean and with a tropical wave approaching the area should spark off development..I feel this area needs watching...

Yep it certainly does....I think an official BEAR WATCH should be activated.

[otowntiger]

The 00z run depicts a TC developing in the western Carib. and heads for western Gulf over the weekend.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

I don't know, but given the looks of it and the set up of that monster high pressure, whatever it is would be heading for S. Texas/Mexico, right?

[Ivanhater]

The 00z run depicts a TC developing in the western Carib. and heads for western Gulf over the weekend.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

I don't know, but given the looks of it and the set up of that monster high pressure, whatever it is would be heading for S. Texas/Mexico, right?

Well according the the NOGAPS the steering shows NW with the HIGH migrating east

[Sanibel]

The current initialization takes it out of the area east of Nicaragua and up over Yucatan.

That would have to be that current central Caribbean blob.

Too much shear right now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

For those whose security settings will let them see this image- and for those whose setting won't, NoGaps through 96 hours seems consistent with 0Z and 6Z runs

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, it is the CMS, but Tampico storm in 6 days...





I'm still waiting on a real model to show this. Canadian and Nogaps just don't quite do it for me.

[Stormcenter]

OK, it is the CMS, but Tampico storm in 6 days...





I'm still waiting on a real model to show this. Canadian and Nogaps just don't quite do it for me.

Yep I know what you mean.

[ROCK]

I am waiting on the westerlies......ED thought you promised that a few weeks back.....

[ROCK]

CMC 12z says BOC storm....moving north...ugh...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am waiting on the westerlies......ED thought you promised that a few weeks back.....

We've had non-stop Westerlies for like 3 weeks, with one brief interruption Friday.

[Sanibel]