Perturbed Area over Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 93L)

[Blown Away]

I posted this in the models thread, but I was curious if the system the Canadian develops N of PR is coming from this area near the islands? I know it's the Canadian!

[Gustywind]

Seems that gusts are pretty strong since this morning in Antigua, another carib islander has an interresting report from stormcarib.com


THE EXPLODING BLOB
From: jan farara <janfarara at hotmail.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 18:12:21 +0000

WHERE did that come from? I had checked my stormcarib report which was nothing on the horizon for the present ,watched a movie which is very rare in Antigua at the moment due to a scarcity of POWER!! and went to bed. I was woken up with a crash as lamps were blown to the floor in the living room and and rain was in our bed upstairs. The power was out [normal] but the rain was coming from a strange direction and straight on to the veranda and into the house.The power is still out for a large part of the island and has been for up to 12 hours. The problem is that no-one knows if this was caused by lightening, downed trees or design.The storm or blob seemes to have come off the South American coast and has moved on, thank goodness. The winds were gusting to 30 or40 knots but it felt like more ,as we had to hold on to doors to bring patio funiture inside. My husband has been to town and apart from the fact that a lot of places are closed due to the lack of power he could see no damage. We have an untested wooden house as we moved in in November.so IF we have a hurricane I think Im going to find a concrete bunker!!!Jan

And others are all speaking about these strongs gustywinds....
:
clearing up after all
From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 07:17:15 -0700 (PDT)

no rain in over an hour and the winds have gone light again. According to the news the Met office here recorded a peak wind gust of just over 50 knots with sustained 40 several times through the night. Today at 8 am we had 40 knots once again. Now not more than about 15 knots. Radar and sat maps show the rain moved south.
eli


268 725 7263 Cell
The powerboats: http://www.adventureantigua.com
The sailing: http://www.antigua-sailing.com
The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
Barbuda: http://antiguaisland.blogspot.com/2007/ ... rbuda.html



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- Tropical Wave with Teeth
From: Steve Coghlan <steve at candw.ag>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 09:28:14 -0400

A dark and stormy night was experienced with the passing of a rather vigorous tropical wave through the Windward and Northern Leeward Islands. Distant thunderstorms were observed early in the evening followed by rain (heavy at times) and winds gusting to Tropical Storm force.


Local reports suggest that there was flooding in some areas and some damage to structures and vegetation.


This morning the sky is very overcast with light rain and gusty winds. Latest images suggest that there is more rain to the East, so it will probably be a day with only "liquid sunshine" here in Antigua.


Many of us were surprised at the intensity of this wave. This one may go on to cause problems further West.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- WOW...
From: Alan Scholl <scholla at candw.ag>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 08:19:50 -0400

Though there was no indication on any winds from this system on any of the main weather sites, we had quite a bit of activity last night.


There was up to 25 knots of wind according to http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html with occasional higher gusts. My satellite dish though a bit weakened with age and rust was blown blown completely off its mount. It started around 2AM and even up to 6AM was still a bit gusty though much lower. There was even a lull before a second session of wind and rain indicating some form of a central area. I hope the USAF plans to check this one out.

Alan B Scholl
http://www.digitalphoto.ag




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- action
From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 05:12:28 -0700 (PDT)

Wind still blowing hard somewhere around 25-30 knots with fairly consistant rain since my last post. Most of the island has been having power cuts recently as the public utilities has gotten it totally wrong. At the moment nobody is sure if their power is out due to load shedding or downed lines. It has been a pretty bad night and continues to blow very hard. The radar looks like the rain is moving south and we may have some ease soon, but to me it looks like this may be the first all day rain event of 08. Don't even think about going off shore in a boat. Some of the islands haven't gotten this bad weather yet, but you put the sat maps in motion and i think you will see that the Caribbean from PR to Aruba are having a strange weather event at the moment. Stay inshore even if it looks good where you are! September is such a slow month for business and today was going to be a busy one for my boats. We can't get upset about this too much.... it's out of our control. The old man (without power) says many tree branches down and way too much rain. My mom living a few miles from the airport had two windows self destruct in the night. There are pros and cons to not having storms hitting you that frequently, and i think this little one is giving people the heads up. I was totoally amazed how much my sloop was moving around inside Jolly Harbour last night. Can't imagine what it would be like in a hurricane. It's gotta come out the water if we get one! I was happy to see that there have only been 14 hurricanes in the northern Caribbean since 1852 during the month of September according to weathercarib.com. Images attached are of radar at this hour.


268 725 7263 Cell
The powerboats: http://www.adventureantigua.com
The sailing: http://www.antigua-sailing.com
The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
Barbuda: http://antiguaisland.blogspot.com/2007/ ... rbuda.html


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- it's 3 am do you know where your kids are?
From: eli fuller <elifuller at yahoo.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 01:06:42 -0700 (PDT)

well its now 4 am and for one hour i have been on and off my boats here in jolly harbour tightening up lines, dropping awnings, moving fenders and getting wet. WE have had some pretty solid wind gusts that must have been over 40 knots. radar shows rain over all these nearby islands and you can see the lightning..... I am sure there will be boats in trouble around antigua tonight as this was unexpected for many people.
268 725 7263 Cell
The powerboats: http://www.adventureantigua.com
The sailing: http://www.antigua-sailing.com
The Blog: http://www.antiguaisland.blogspot.com
Barbuda: http://antiguaisland.blogspot.com/2007/ ... rbuda.html

[expat2carib]

Hi Gustywind,

I don't really understand those reports from the other islands.

Here it has been gray with moderate winds in the last few hours even that it looks worse on satellite.

No rain just gray and cloudy.

How is it on Guadeloupe?

[cycloneye]

AFD from the San Juan NWS:

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
438 PM AST THU SEP 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THEN
MORE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PASSING ACROSS
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE...PER NCEP/PMDCA
MOST LIKELY A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION...AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...TO PRODUCE
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.
INITIALLY HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS (FOR DEVELOPMENT) MAY
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. IRRESPECTIVE OF ANY
DEVELOPMENT.... ...THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA.

IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVENTUALLY PRODUCE
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHICH
COULD IN TURN RESULT IN FLASH AND/OR RIVER FLOODING. THEREFORE...
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...PEOPLE ARE
REMINDED THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE RAINING IN YOUR EXACT
LOCATION FOR DANGEROUS WATER SURGES TO OCCUR IN LOCAL RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[abajan]

I suspect some of the islands are going to get heavy rain from this system tonight. Right now it's not raining here - just overcast. However, observing the pattern of weather in Barbados over the years leads me to conclude that those very clouds will produce lots of rain sometime tonight. The island has been under a flood warning since mid-morning and some parts, especially in the north, have already had quite a lot of rain.

[expat2carib]

In the middle of it and no mess at all. Mhhhhhm...

[Gustywind]

Hi Gustywind,

I don't really understand those reports from the other islands.

Here it has been gray with moderate winds in the last few hours even that it looks worse on satellite.

No rain just gray and cloudy.

How is it on Guadeloupe?

Absolutely the same here in Guadeloupe, i don't understand too those reports.???
Activity is on the decrease right now, overcast, grey, no rain winds, but things will change tonight given Meteo-France....in spite of the fact that the risk has been lowered ( yellow alert).!

[expat2carib]

Hi Gustywind,

I don't really understand those reports from the other islands.

Here it has been gray with moderate winds in the last few hours even that it looks worse on satellite.

No rain just gray and cloudy.

How is it on Guadeloupe?

Absolutely the same here in Guadeloupe, i don't understand too those reports.???
Activity is on the decrease right now, overcast, grey, no rain winds, but things will change tonight given Meteo-France....in spite of the fact that the risk has been lowered ( yellow alert).!

Thanks . At least I know I'm not getting insane or to insensitive for weather phenomenas

[HUC]

Hi Gusty,and all of you.......In the south part of the island,gray,but little rain:10,5mm!. However,fresh winds from the SEst,gusts of 35 Kts.
I know this type of weather:overcast,with intermittent and locally very heavy rain.
BUT, you have to bear watching these kind of disturbances,because there is a real possibility of developpement if the moist air from the south continues,if the system moves slowly , and if the upper air become favorable (ie Klaus in november 1984).
SO ?Wait and see

[expat2carib]

Hi Gusty,and all of you.......In the south part of the island,gray,but little rain:10,5mm!. However,fresh winds from the SEst,gusts of 35 Kts.
I know this type of weather:overcast,with intermittent and locally very heavy rain.
BUT, you have to bear watching these kind of disturbances,because there is a real possibility of developpement if the moist air from the south continues,if the system moves slowly , and if the upper air become favorable (ie Klaus in november 1984).
SO ?Wait and see

Thanks! Thats as well why I'm so focussed on this one. Klaus (1984) was the first hurricane in history to affect the Lesser Antilles from the west. Is this you are thinking about?

[HUC]

Yes,it's that klaus ( there was an other Klaus in october 1990 also close to the leeward ). But,it's track was not exactly from the west...kLAUSS DEVELOPPED IN THE SOUTHEAST CARRIBEAN SEA,THEN MOVES NE TOWARD P /RICO.
The only storm to come from the west was Lenny in 1999.
Someone can post the tracks? ( i cannot use the options )

[cycloneye]

[expat2carib]

Tropical Storm Klaus continued northeastward, and made landfall on extreme eastern Puerto Rico early on November 7. The storm passed a short distance north of the Lesser Antilles,[1] and became the first tropical cyclone in recorded history to affect the islands from the west.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Klaus_(1984)

Maybe I'm reading it wrong

[HUC]

Thank's,Luis; fine weather in your location,before the bad weather???

[cycloneye]

Thank's,Luis; fine weather in your location,before the bad weather???

Yes,nice night here.

[abajan]

Evidently, some areas in Barbados experienced significantly more rain than I did here. I was shocked to see the damage inflicted on people's homes and vehicles just shown on our evening newscast: roads transformed to rivers and their surfaces torn away, walls toppled, massive concrete slabs strewn hither and thither, vehicles carried several feet... Some elderly folk even stated that it was the heaviest rain they had ever witnessed!

[expat2carib]

Good Evening

Boy, what blew in early this morning . Woke up to howling winds and driving rain at about 4:00am, it was awful. I could hear the shingles on the roof flapping and things being blown around. I got back to sleep only to be woke up again by the wind howling louder and things crashing and breaking. It reminded me of when Dean pasted through the area last year (Come to think of it this was worse). It was very unexpected. The wind was blowing 20 to 30 knots, a lot higher gusts. Don't mind the rain but I can do without the winds blowing that hard it scared me and my dogs.
Went out to check for damage, thinks blown over, lots of tree branches broken, lots of shingles missing. It stayed cloudy all day and the wind let up around 10 or 11 am. Then no wind at all. Very strange.
I have attached a picture of our volcano, taken last evening. It was steaming with just enough ash to make it look like it was creating a rain cloud. I thought it looked cool.

Have a great evening.
Tina
Isles Bay
Montserrat



http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/montserrat.shtml

[Gustywind]

Hi Gusty,and all of you.......In the south part of the island,gray,but little rain:10,5mm!. However,fresh winds from the SEst,gusts of 35 Kts.
I know this type of weather:overcast,with intermittent and locally very heavy rain.
BUT, you have to bear watching these kind of disturbances,because there is a real possibility of developpement if the moist air from the south continues,if the system moves slowly , and if the upper air become favorable (ie Klaus in november 1984).
SO ?Wait and see

Hi Huc, glad to see to you tkanks, nice report, we should not let our guard down i'm agree with you , very suspicious things can happen at any time as shear tendency too shows that winds are abatting...

[cycloneye]

Getting a little more interesting the language from NHC:


ABNT20 KNHC 182348
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HUC]

astonished report from abajan....apparently your island had some damages from this system,and the TWO seems pointing the focus on the disturbance!! Although at this time,it loose activity (evening minima?