Development not likely since it's moving north but looks nice!
Subtropical Development in the NE Atlantic? New System
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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Subtropical Development in the NE Atlantic? New System
Link: http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observa ... te/visible
Development not likely since it's moving north but looks nice!
Development not likely since it's moving north but looks nice!
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FQNT50 LFPW 190854
A
SECURITE
Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
Toulouse, Friday 19 September 2008 at 09 UTC.
- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.
Part 1 : WARNING : nr 425.
Part 2 : General synopsis, Friday 19 at 00 UTC
Thundery low 1011 over MADEIRA, moving northwest and deepening,
expected 1010 35N18W by 19/12UTC, then 1007 36N19W by 20/12UTC.
Disturbance crossing FARADAY and Northwest ALTAIR later.
High 1026 just south Ireland moving northeast and building,
expected 1033 just east Netherland by 20/12UTC.
New high expected 1035 46N49W by 20/12UTC.
Tropical wave along 25W/26W south of 18N, moving west 10 kt.
ITCZ along 11N15W 10N18W 12N25W 10N35W.
Part 3 : Area forecasts to Saturday 20 at 12 UTC
FARADAY :
In far southeast, Southerly 3 to 5. Elsewhere, Southerly 3 or 4
gradually veering Northerly 5 or 6. Gusts. Moderate, becoming rough
in northwest. Rain. Fog patches.
ROMEO :
In Northwest: Southerly 3 to 5. In southeast: Easterly 3 to 5.
Moderate.
ALTAIR :
In far southeast, East or Northeast 3 to 5 increasing 4 to 6 later.
Elsewhere, Variable 2 to 4 becoming North or Northeast 4 to 6
later. Gusts. Moderate. Rain or showers.
CHARCOT :
East or Northeast 3 to 5, increasing 5 to 7 in south soon.
Moderate or rough. Showers, locally thundersqualls with severe
gusts from south.
ACORES :
In west: Variable 2 to 4. In east: North or Northeast 4 or 5,
increasing 6 in northeast at end. Moderate, locally rough in east.
Rain and showers, locally thundersqualls with severe gusts.
JOSEPHINE :
In southwest: Cyclonic 6 to 8 decreasing 5 to 7 later. In
northeast, East or Southeast 5 to 7 veering South or Southeast 3
to 5 from south. Moderate or rough. Showers, locally
thundersqualls with severe gusts.
IRVING :
Northerly 3 to 5. Moderate. Rain and showers in east, locally
thundersqualls with severe gust.
MADEIRA :
Cyclonic 6 to 8, but South or Southwest in east and West or
Southwest in south, veering West or Southwest 4 to 6 everywhere
later. Moderate or rough. Showers, locally thundersqualls with
severe gusts.
PAZENN :
East or Northeast 3 to 5, veering East 4 or 5 later. Moderate or
rough in Northwest swell.
IROISE, YEU, ROCHEBONNE :
Northeasterly 3 or 4, veering Easterly 4 or 5 later. Slight or
moderate in Northwest swell. Thundery rain in south.
CANTABRICO :
In west: East or Northeast 3 or 4 veering Easterly 4 or 5 soon. In
east: Northerly 2 to 4 veering East or Northeast overnight. Slight
or moderate in Northwest swell. Thundery rain or showers.
FINISTERRE :
East or Northeast 4 to 6 decreasing 2 to 4 in south later. Moderate
or rough in Northwest swell.
PORTO :
Northeasterly 3 or 4, locally Northerly in far northeast, veering
Easterly soon, and becoming variable 3 to 5 later, Southeasterly
prevailing. Slight increasing moderate. Showers or thundersqualls
with severe gusts.
SAO VICENTE :
East or Southeast 3 to 5, veering Southeasterly soon, occasionally
6 in far southeast, but becoming variable 3 or 4 in east. Slight
or moderate. Showers or thundersqualls with severe gusts.
CADIZ, GIBRALTAR STRAIT :
In and leeward strait, Easterly 3 to 5 increasing 4 to 6 later.
Elsewhere, variable 2 to 4. Smooth to slight, becoming locally
moderate. Showers.
CASABLANCA :
In west, South or Southeast 3 to 5, increasing 4 to 6 soon, and
veering South or Southwest 3 or 4 later. In east, variable 2 to 4.
Slight or moderate. Showers or thundersqualls with severe gusts.
AGADIR :
Variable 3 or 4, mainly Southerly 5 in far northwest. Slight or
moderate. Showers or thundersqualls with severe gusts.
METEOR :
North or Northeast 3 or 4, locally Northwest far northeast.
Moderate in N or NE swell.
Some showers.
CANARIAS :
Mainly Westerly 2 to 4, but South 3 to 5 in northeast until 20/03
UTC, becoming later Northerly in southeast. Slight or moderate in N
swell. Some showers in north, locally thundery in northeast at
first.
TARFAYA :
Becoming North 2 to 4, veering East later, becoming Variable at
end.
Moderate in N swell, abating. Thunderstorms, decerasing later.
CAPE VERDE, CAP BLANC :
North or Northeast 3 or 4, locally Variable 2 or 3 in north of CAP
BLANC at first.
Moderate in N or NE swell. Some showers in CAPE VERDE.
CAP TIMIRIS :
North 3 or 4, increasing later 4 or 5. Moderate. N swell.
SIERRA LEONE :
Variable 2 to 4, but Northeast in northwest. Moderate in S or SE
swell.
Thundersqualls with severe gusts, mainly in southeast.
GULF OF GUINEA :
Southerly 3 to 5, locally 6. Moderate in S swell. Thundersqualls
with severe gusts.
POINTE NOIRE :
South or Southeast 3 to 5, but Variable 1 to 3 far east. Moderate
in S swell.
Part 4 : outlook for next 24 hours :
Persistence of thundery low southwest of JOSEPHINE with threat of
near gale or gale in CHARCOT, JOSEPHINE and MADEIRA. Elsewhere, ni
gale expected.
A
SECURITE
Weather bulletin for METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
Toulouse, Friday 19 September 2008 at 09 UTC.
- Wind speed in BEAUFORT SCALE - Sea : Total significant -
- Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger
than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice
the significant height.
Part 1 : WARNING : nr 425.
Part 2 : General synopsis, Friday 19 at 00 UTC
Thundery low 1011 over MADEIRA, moving northwest and deepening,
expected 1010 35N18W by 19/12UTC, then 1007 36N19W by 20/12UTC.
Disturbance crossing FARADAY and Northwest ALTAIR later.
High 1026 just south Ireland moving northeast and building,
expected 1033 just east Netherland by 20/12UTC.
New high expected 1035 46N49W by 20/12UTC.
Tropical wave along 25W/26W south of 18N, moving west 10 kt.
ITCZ along 11N15W 10N18W 12N25W 10N35W.
Part 3 : Area forecasts to Saturday 20 at 12 UTC
FARADAY :
In far southeast, Southerly 3 to 5. Elsewhere, Southerly 3 or 4
gradually veering Northerly 5 or 6. Gusts. Moderate, becoming rough
in northwest. Rain. Fog patches.
ROMEO :
In Northwest: Southerly 3 to 5. In southeast: Easterly 3 to 5.
Moderate.
ALTAIR :
In far southeast, East or Northeast 3 to 5 increasing 4 to 6 later.
Elsewhere, Variable 2 to 4 becoming North or Northeast 4 to 6
later. Gusts. Moderate. Rain or showers.
CHARCOT :
East or Northeast 3 to 5, increasing 5 to 7 in south soon.
Moderate or rough. Showers, locally thundersqualls with severe
gusts from south.
ACORES :
In west: Variable 2 to 4. In east: North or Northeast 4 or 5,
increasing 6 in northeast at end. Moderate, locally rough in east.
Rain and showers, locally thundersqualls with severe gusts.
JOSEPHINE :
In southwest: Cyclonic 6 to 8 decreasing 5 to 7 later. In
northeast, East or Southeast 5 to 7 veering South or Southeast 3
to 5 from south. Moderate or rough. Showers, locally
thundersqualls with severe gusts.
IRVING :
Northerly 3 to 5. Moderate. Rain and showers in east, locally
thundersqualls with severe gust.
MADEIRA :
Cyclonic 6 to 8, but South or Southwest in east and West or
Southwest in south, veering West or Southwest 4 to 6 everywhere
later. Moderate or rough. Showers, locally thundersqualls with
severe gusts.
PAZENN :
East or Northeast 3 to 5, veering East 4 or 5 later. Moderate or
rough in Northwest swell.
IROISE, YEU, ROCHEBONNE :
Northeasterly 3 or 4, veering Easterly 4 or 5 later. Slight or
moderate in Northwest swell. Thundery rain in south.
CANTABRICO :
In west: East or Northeast 3 or 4 veering Easterly 4 or 5 soon. In
east: Northerly 2 to 4 veering East or Northeast overnight. Slight
or moderate in Northwest swell. Thundery rain or showers.
FINISTERRE :
East or Northeast 4 to 6 decreasing 2 to 4 in south later. Moderate
or rough in Northwest swell.
PORTO :
Northeasterly 3 or 4, locally Northerly in far northeast, veering
Easterly soon, and becoming variable 3 to 5 later, Southeasterly
prevailing. Slight increasing moderate. Showers or thundersqualls
with severe gusts.
SAO VICENTE :
East or Southeast 3 to 5, veering Southeasterly soon, occasionally
6 in far southeast, but becoming variable 3 or 4 in east. Slight
or moderate. Showers or thundersqualls with severe gusts.
CADIZ, GIBRALTAR STRAIT :
In and leeward strait, Easterly 3 to 5 increasing 4 to 6 later.
Elsewhere, variable 2 to 4. Smooth to slight, becoming locally
moderate. Showers.
CASABLANCA :
In west, South or Southeast 3 to 5, increasing 4 to 6 soon, and
veering South or Southwest 3 or 4 later. In east, variable 2 to 4.
Slight or moderate. Showers or thundersqualls with severe gusts.
AGADIR :
Variable 3 or 4, mainly Southerly 5 in far northwest. Slight or
moderate. Showers or thundersqualls with severe gusts.
METEOR :
North or Northeast 3 or 4, locally Northwest far northeast.
Moderate in N or NE swell.
Some showers.
CANARIAS :
Mainly Westerly 2 to 4, but South 3 to 5 in northeast until 20/03
UTC, becoming later Northerly in southeast. Slight or moderate in N
swell. Some showers in north, locally thundery in northeast at
first.
TARFAYA :
Becoming North 2 to 4, veering East later, becoming Variable at
end.
Moderate in N swell, abating. Thunderstorms, decerasing later.
CAPE VERDE, CAP BLANC :
North or Northeast 3 or 4, locally Variable 2 or 3 in north of CAP
BLANC at first.
Moderate in N or NE swell. Some showers in CAPE VERDE.
CAP TIMIRIS :
North 3 or 4, increasing later 4 or 5. Moderate. N swell.
SIERRA LEONE :
Variable 2 to 4, but Northeast in northwest. Moderate in S or SE
swell.
Thundersqualls with severe gusts, mainly in southeast.
GULF OF GUINEA :
Southerly 3 to 5, locally 6. Moderate in S swell. Thundersqualls
with severe gusts.
POINTE NOIRE :
South or Southeast 3 to 5, but Variable 1 to 3 far east. Moderate
in S swell.
Part 4 : outlook for next 24 hours :
Persistence of thundery low southwest of JOSEPHINE with threat of
near gale or gale in CHARCOT, JOSEPHINE and MADEIRA. Elsewhere, ni
gale expected.
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
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Category 5
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- Posts: 10074
- Age: 35
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- Location: New Brunswick, NJ
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Re: Subtropical Development in the NE Atlantic?
You never know, you just never know. It surely is interesting.
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Re:
HURAKAN wrote:
Sun coming down but the disturbance is looking a little better.
Saw this being persistant on GFS and thought we may see at least some attention paid..
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
This season we have not seen any subtropical development in the Atlantic Ocean itself (Edouard was in the GOM). I have been thinking on doing a thread talking about it but didn't think it would attract much public! This system is interesting but I don't expect any real development. I have been surprised before and it's September! Lets see what happens.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Subtropical Development in the NE Atlantic?
This don't have much chance. I'm not going to fly the freak flag after a "invest" last year that looked better having not being upgraded. I'm sorry, but it won't happen. If it does then I will say I'm wrong.
It does look pretty good, it has to loose that frontal thing, but other wise looks good.
It does look pretty good, it has to loose that frontal thing, but other wise looks good.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Subtropical Development in the NE Atlantic?
This needs to be Invest 94L...That is all I'm going to say.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re: Subtropical Development in the NE Atlantic?
I think its borderline...If it can develop convection over the center, then it could become one. I believe the nhc needs to put it under a yellow or maybe a orange.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Re:
HURAKAN wrote:
LAIP5 - MARITIME-ship
Saturday Sep. 20 - 0:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 68°F
Dewpoint: 66°F
Wind: E at 34 mph
Pressure: 1012.6 mb
Weather: Thunderstorms
Wave Height: 5 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 69.8°F
Strong winds being reported near the LLC. A plus for subtropical-ization!
Very borderline sst's for subtropical development. I believe if it can develop that burst of convection near its center, it will be a subtropical system. But I don't think this has a chance of becoming more.
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