ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye what's the weather like in PR?
Seems that deep convection is on your area or just in periphery?!

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS ERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W
THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W TO EAST OF BONAIRE INTO
NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N68W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 63W-67W...INCLUDING THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion as usual from the San Juan PR,...
Cycloneye it's a BEAR WATCHING for you !
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 210923
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AFFECTED
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND FOR THAT REASON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING VERY SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW...MAINTAINING
A WET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FA. LATEST PROJECTIONS OF THE GFS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE FA UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY.

ACCORDINGLY TO THE LATEST TWO ISSUED BY NHC...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL COVER THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA TODAY AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN AXIS OF ACTIVITY
EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. A MODERATE
NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT RAPIDLY MOVING MVFR SHRA/TSRA
WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...AND PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LATER IN THE DAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
NORTHWEST. WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS NEAR SCATTERED SQUALLS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SQUALLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND PASSAGES THIS MORNING...REACHING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 60 60 60 40
STT 86 78 87 78 / 80 60 70 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL INTERIOR-
CULEBRA-EASTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-PONCE AND VICINITY-SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-VIEQUES-WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

$$

09/72/

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 210926
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING...
AS A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR DETECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS SO FAR NOTED IN AND
AROUND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX...AND JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF
SAINT THOMAS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH...BUT GUSTY AT TIMES AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING. THIS DISTURBED WEATHER AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TODAY...AND BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS DURING THE DAY.

THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE LOCAL AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. UNTIL THEN PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MARINERS ARE ALSO URGED TO
REMAIN ALERT FOR OCCASIONAL SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
WINDS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER.

$$
Hope and sure that you're reading it carefully Bvigal, keep watching it...

[caribepr]

I don't know what is going on where Luis is in San Juan but here we just had a lessening of what has been a steady downpour for what seems like hours now. Still raining but not nearly as hard. Ok, it's starting to rain harder again, never mind.

[Gustywind]

I don't know what is going on where Luis is in San Juan but here we just had a lessening of what has been a steady downpour for what seems like hours now. Still raining but not nearly as hard. Ok, it's starting to rain harder again, never mind.

LOL , you're speaking about it and it just have heard you Tkanks for the info, stay safe...

[Rincon]

I am here is Rincon on the West Coast and will have my eyes peeled for the start of the fun. Have my weather station (Davis VP2) and a webcam if anyone is interested in keeping tabs.

http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php

[gerrit]

It's dry, here in the mountains in Eastern Puerto Rico, but not for long. Lightning and thunder and lots of clouds.

[Gustywind]

Latest from 93L

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W TO CURACAO AND THEN INTO NERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-68W...INCLUDING THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMEMENT.

21/0645 UTC 16.5N 66.9W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Gustywind]

It's dry, here in the mountains in Eastern Puerto Rico, but not for long. Lightning and thunder and lots of clouds.

Ok so weather is deteriorating in PR as usual keep us informed on the situation in your island Gerrit, hope nothing too bad just water and no more....

[jlauderdal]

[cycloneye]

Gerrit and Mj,watch out for this line of thunderstorms.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
640 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

PRZ002-003-012-013-211200-
ARROYO PR-PATILLAS PR-MAUNABO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-GUAYAMA PR-
FAJARDO PR-CULEBRA PR-HUMACAO PR-SALINAS PR-YABUCOA PR-VIEQUES PR-
640 AM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

...SOLID LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY APPROACHING THESE
AREAS FROM THE SOUTH...

AT 635 AM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
INDICATED INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA... AND MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AS THEY PASS BY.
IF OUTDOORS... STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES.
MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO
UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

$$
RAM

[cycloneye]

Where I am in San Juan is very dark,but so far no rain.I know that is going to change shortly by looking at radar.

[Gustywind]

Where I am in San Juan is very dark,but so far no rain.I know that is going to change shortly by looking at radar.

Ok tkanks Cycloneye, keep us informed as 93L is definitely bringing a change ...

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Convection is surely more compact expanding everywhere and , trying to be more circular...

[caribepr]

A new twist...with all the rain, there hasn't been wind. But that is changing as I type; the wind is picking up now, in waves. Not radically, but from the earlier stillness, it's significant.

Luis, stay dry, it's definitely moving your way.

[gerrit]

Gerrit and Mj,watch out for this line of thunderstorms.

Thanks Luis. I'm just hearing a lot of thunder..

[Jagno]

I am here is Rincon on the West Coast and will have my eyes peeled for the start of the fun. Have my weather station (Davis VP2) and a webcam if anyone is interested in keeping tabs.

http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php

Thank you Rincon; Your view is beautiful from your deck.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 211144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

Now Red:

[Lowpressure]

Radar loop above sure looks like a closed circulation to me.