Area Of Disturbed Weather In NW Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

There is definitely come cyclonic turning just east of Belize and north of Honduras. I'd expect an invest here over the next 24-48 hours. Steering currents are going to remain weak in this area so if anything forms I wouldn't expect it to move much over the next several days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

You really, really want something to form dont you?

I'm stating an observation and an opinion that is all.

[kpost]

There is definitely come cyclonic turning just east of Belize and north of Honduras. I'd expect an invest here over the next 24-48 hours. Steering currents are going to remain weak in this area so if anything forms I wouldn't expect it to move much over the next several days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

You really, really want something to form dont you?

I do Not know Gatorcane and i am newer here, but these comments are completely useless. i read this forum daily and gatorcane has most always been informative. If you need to trash someone go elsewhere, start with the Gfs since the model seems to "really, really want something to form" too. I checked your post log and you seem to only post to pass criticism on others.

[smw1981]

At least the storms have clustered a little bit more this morning (from yesterday morning) - comparing the 2 sat pictures on page 2... maybe something will get going once the area passes over the Yucatan (if they don't die out).

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's is why we are here KUEFC. I want something to form to. Because it's exciting to watch. I don't want anyone to get flooded or hurt. I've always had a facination for storms. Since I was a kid. Thanks to the internet we all can talk about possible storms forming.

[KUEFC]

There is definitely come cyclonic turning just east of Belize and north of Honduras. I'd expect an invest here over the next 24-48 hours. Steering currents are going to remain weak in this area so if anything forms I wouldn't expect it to move much over the next several days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

You really, really want something to form dont you?

I do Not know Gatorcane and i am newer here, but these comments are completely useless. i read this forum daily and gatorcane has most always been informative. If you need to trash someone go elsewhere, start with the Gfs since the model seems to "really, really want something to form" too. I checked your post log and you seem to only post to pass criticism on others.

So i guess Dr Masters is lying when he said " However, the models are showing nothing forming over the next week,"?

[HURAKAN]

12Z: LPS develops in the Gulf of Honduras

[Ed Mahmoud]

Someone has had urinated cranky flakes for breakfast...

So i guess Dr Masters is lying when he said " However, the models are showing nothing forming over the next week,"?

Looks like the GFS sees lowering pressure and low level vorticity drifting into the Southernmost Bay of Campeche. Doesn't mean anything will actually form, but it isn't like there is absolutely no model support.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of Dr. Masters...

Far fewer Cape Verdes-type hurricanes form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands during October, compared to September (Figure 2). Many of those that do form recurve out to sea, and the odds are that hurricane season is over for the Lesser Antilles Islands. Only four October hurricanes have affected these islands since 1851. Hurricane season is also probably over for Texas, which which has only seen three October hurricanes since 1851. Hurricane season is definitely not over for Central America, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the U.S. coast from Louisiana to New England, plus Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the islands of the central and western Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

Starting to see a little rotation in the Gulf of Honduras. Convection has been persistent for a couple of days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[El Nino]

Would not be surprised to see code yellow later today or tomorrow ...

[gatorcane]

Starting to see a little rotation in the Gulf of Honduras. Convection has been persistent for a couple of days.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Here is another good view of the cyclonic turning, I would be surprised if this does not become an invest

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Evil Jeremy]

So i guess Dr Masters is lying when he said " However, the models are showing nothing forming over the next week,"?

No, but Dr. Masters is not the god of weather. Anything can happen in the tropics. You cant always trust your eyes with this kind of science.

Anyways, I do believe this might become our next invest.

[gatorcane]

Let's just say that earlier this season, the NHC was putting code yellow on areas with far less convection and UL support than this area.

I think the NHC may be just as burnt out as we all are with this season

Anyway, this area continues to impress me although expect gradual and slow organization over the next several days...may not be until later this weekend that it has a shot of becoming a depression, if it does.

[wxman57]

Right now, it's just a bit of a frontal wave down there. But it is a prime region for late-season development. Wind shear is a bit high now, and convection is very disorganized. It's one of two possible areas of formation over the next week or two. The key will be the development of persistent deep convection, as always.

Any development down there would most likely track north or northeast, either across Cuba and the Bahamas or perhaps across the southern FL peninsula. Typical October track.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't see any models pulling up anything except some moisture and lower pressures. As models go. It could change. It's the season for the Carribean.

[fci]

Yes, this is the time for us to watch every little cyclonic turn and burned out old fronts down in the Carib.

KUEFC:
Gatorcane is NOT out of line in his observation and either is Lonny.

If you are interpreting Dr. Masters to be calling "season over", believe me, he is not.

We are only a few weeks to a month away from not worrying but now is the time to be very watchful if you live in South Florida. But, Ed can almost safely make his claim that it IS season over for Texas. However, the last time he did..........

[cycloneye]

Well,NHC says something about it.

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING IN THE REGION...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[Blown Away]

Yep, the NHC is starting to think about it a little. If the convection persists I expect "Code Yellow" at the next update.

[Rainband]

Yes, this is the time for us to watch every little cyclonic turn and burned out old fronts down in the Carib.

KUEFC:
Gatorcane is NOT out of line in his observation and either is Lonny.

If you are interpreting Dr. Masters to be calling "season over", believe me, he is not.

We are only a few weeks to a month away from not worrying but now is the time to be very watchful if you live in South Florida. But, Ed can almost safely make his claim that it IS season over for Texas. However, the last time he did..........

anywhere in florida this time of year

[Blown Away]

Definitely a little rotation near 17N/86W. Compared to 24 hours ago this area is slowly getting organized.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html