OMAR: Aftermath=PR / VI / N.Leewards

[cycloneye]

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
653 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHERN COASTS OF ST CROIX
LATER TONIGHT...

VIZ002-160700-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.CF.W.0002.081016T0000Z-081016T1200Z/
ST CROIX-
653 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM AST THURSDAY...

A STORM SURGE OF 3-4 FEET ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OMAR IS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS OR NEAR ST
CROIX. HIGH SEAS GENERATED ON THE RIGHT...OR EASTERN SIDE OF
OMAR...WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH POUNDING SURF ALONG THE REEF LINES
AND BEACHES OF SOUTHERN ST CROIX. THE COMBINATION OF ELEVATED
TIDES...THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE...AND THE RUNUP OF THESE VERY
LARGE WAVES ALONG THE BEACHES AND SHORE LINES...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ST
CROIX. WATER LEVELS MAY RISE 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THESE
COAST LINES JUST AHEAD...AND THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER...THE
PASSAGE OF OMAR OVERNIGHT. WESTERN COASTAL SECTIONS ALSO MAY SEE
SIGNIFICANT BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER WATER LEVEL RISES WITH THE PASSAGE
OF OMAR...AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING...IS
IMMINENT...OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

$$

SS

[caribepr]

I was listening to the local Spanish station when they did the report in English for the "American tourists" that might be worried in their hotels. It was like a typical Tourism Board report, "everything is going to be fine, which I hope is true, but then she added, Tomorrow the sun will be out and you can go to the beach...the waves will be a little high though.
I couldn't believe it! Next headlines...tourists die in rip currents.

[MiamiensisWx]

I was listening to the local Spanish station when they did the report in English for the "American tourists" that might be worried in their hotels. It was like a typical Tourism Board report, "everything is going to be fine, which I hope is true, but then she added, Tomorrow the sun will be out and you can go to the beach...the waves will be a little high though.
I couldn't believe it! Next headlines...tourists die in rip currents.

Ugh... that is (sadly) reminescent of some "local mets" and reporters here on the mainland as well.

I've briefly traversed the contributions and reports here, and I'm surprised that msbee did not hoist shutters on Sint Maarten, especially as a Luis veteran... I truly hope that person will fare nicely and (if truly necessary) place the shutters in effect on another occasion. I certainly do not utilize my shutters for all threats/strikes, but this is one situation where it was likely necessary to err on the side of caution... based on latest trends, a portion of the eastern eyewall likely pass over a narrow portion of western Sint Maarten.

[caribepr]

Best story of the storm so far...background...someone wrote to me asking about the curfew and I told them what little I knew and said I hoped anyone who broke it was taken in. Starting out my island life on St. Croix and knowing the insanity that has happened there in the aftermath of hurricanes, I thought, hey, there's not much to tempt anyone here but you never know. So I got this reply, which I am still lauging about (and don't ask me who what when or where, doesn't matter, except that it's true)

[edited by me]

actually we did have a "break in" of sorts next door as some folks were busting into the building used as a church to put thier horse inside...the pastor didn't think much of their methods when he showed up(saw, etc. breakin down the door), but felt bad for the horse, i guess, as it's now inside the church.

The horse is safe for the night. Gotta love Culebra.

[BatzVI]

Heavier rain has started from the drizzle we had almost all day and the wind is gustier....but not too bad yet.....gonna be a long night.....take care everyone in the islands, stay safe......check in as soon as you can after this is over.....

[Gustywind]

Purple alert for St Marteen meaning that things should deteriorate quickly right now as Omar is approaching dangerously... given the latest weather forecast of our Prom Met of Meteo- France: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_in.pdf
Swell with 5 meters and higher from Soutwhest and South higher is expected tonight and tommorow.
Whereas sustained winds near 55 kts are anticipated with gustywinds up to 65/82kts...
Intense rainshowers are expected too with amount near 100 to 200 millimeters and more during all the episode...
Hope the best for all Leewards , be prepared for the worst and be safe, prudent during Omar's travel...

[Sanibel]

The previous Virgin Island track was a mistake and this StormCarib poster from Anguilla thinks it will miss him well west. I hope he knows a much stronger storm is coming right at him:

Omar has finally turned to the NE – good for Anguilla. Winds have increased some, but still a small storm – hurricane winds out only 15 miles. Will come a little closer to AXA than the last projected path (about 72 miles), but tropical force winds extend only 115 miles.



I think the biggest concern continues to be rain and sea swells. Rain has been light to moderate (0.80 in. all day), but think we’ll catch the eastern edge of the “blob” on the satellite a little later. I just returned from a walk of Maundays Bay (Cap Juluca Hotel – south facing beach), and could not believe the size of the seas already – and there is basically no wind. The seas are building quickly! Below are a few pictures – waves already crashing in the restaurant and the western end of the beach is pretty much covered. They should do fine because of their sea wall – I’m concerned about some of the other beaches.



Make sure to check the 11:00 NWS forecast for any changes, but should pass to our west about 10:00 AM in the morning.

[MiamiensisWx]

The previous Virgin Island track was a mistake and this StormCarib poster from Anguilla thinks it will miss him well west. I hope he knows a much stronger storm is coming right at him:

Omar has finally turned to the NE – good for Anguilla. Winds have increased some, but still a small storm – hurricane winds out only 15 miles. Will come a little closer to AXA than the last projected path (about 72 miles), but tropical force winds extend only 115 miles.



I think the biggest concern continues to be rain and sea swells. Rain has been light to moderate (0.80 in. all day), but think we’ll catch the eastern edge of the “blob” on the satellite a little later. I just returned from a walk of Maundays Bay (Cap Juluca Hotel – south facing beach), and could not believe the size of the seas already – and there is basically no wind. The seas are building quickly! Below are a few pictures – waves already crashing in the restaurant and the western end of the beach is pretty much covered. They should do fine because of their sea wall – I’m concerned about some of the other beaches.



Make sure to check the 11:00 NWS forecast for any changes, but should pass to our west about 10:00 AM in the morning.

Why would anyone let their guard down if they are situated in the cone?

Argh... Anguilla is slightly NW of Sint Maarten.

[caribepr]

This is just a calculation projected based on the 11 o'clock update but...

Results for Anguilla (18.2N, 63.08W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.6N, 63.7W or about 46.9 miles (75.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 7.1 hours (Thursday, Octover 16 at 6:06AM EDT).

So that is not coming *right at him* though with the hurricane force winds now projected at a 35 mile radius, he's close to the zone. St. Maarten is at 50 miles, at this point. All things being subject to change and that this is an extropolation of the current track and the location of the islands.

I'll add...and this is my personal opinion, I don't think anyone around here is "letting their guard down". It has been a confusing day, but he seems to be aware of the updates and changes that can come. That report was written around 7 o'clock, our time.

[Sanibel]

Extrapolated track should be west of Anguilla, yes, and near the island-less Anegada Passage. How increased intensity affects nearby islands should be academic.

[caribepr]

Extrapolated track should be west of Anguilla, yes, and near the island-less Anegada Passage. How increased intensity affects nearby islands should be academic.

Academic? I don't understand what you mean by that. Explain please? Going through the passage is the best hoped for scenario, but it still leaves St. Croix in the hurricane force wind zone...

[bvigal]

[Crostorm]

News Release



Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;



For Immediate Release: Wednesday, October 15, 2008/N171



HURRICANE OMAR NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE



GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) – Hurricane Omar is now a dangerous category three hurricane. Earlier this evening it was a category two but based on the 11.00pm advisory, this has now changed. Omar at 11.00pm was located 30 miles South East of St. Croix and 105 miles West South West of St. Maarten.



Hurricane Omar wind speeds are now 115 miles per hour with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane is moving faster at 20 miles per hour which is good for our islands as the system will move quickly away.



Chairman of the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Governor Franklyn Richards, says weather conditions will continue to further deteriorate tonight.



The island will experience tropical storm conditions as the night progresses.



Islands in the path of a category three hurricane will experience wind speed between 111 to 130 miles per hour; a storm surge of 9 to 12 feet above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Low lying areas would be flooded. Flooding near the coast would destroy smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris.



Governor Richards would like to reassure the nation that all necessary pre-hurricane preparations are in place and all resources are on standby to respond to any emergencies.



Additional advisories will be issued and the public is advised to monitor radio broadcasts.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

St. Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)

[caribepr]

This is NOT the Omar discussion thread. YOU GUYS GO SPECULATE AND ARGUE OVER THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry...but it is what's happening now...observations. And it made me a little testy. Yep, an excuse, mea culpa!

edit to say: oops! I misinterpreted this comment, thinking it was about what I wrote........bvigal and I are fine with each other, she was referring to something else

[Sanibel]

StormCarib

Allan D, Antigua:

Station 9751364 at Christiansted Harbour, St. Croix just reported sustained winds(NNE) of 51 mph with a gust to 67 mph at 12:06 am EST. There's also an unconfirmed report from Cruz Bay, St. John of sustained wind at 38 mph with gusts to 56 mph. HR composite radar shows that the strongest hurricane winds(at least 90 mph) remains just offshore of St. Croix to the east. From this point on, the eye of CAT3 Omar will begin to move away from St. Croix but strong winds(possibly the highest is yet to blow onshore) will continue to affect the island for another 3 hours or so. Meanwhile, conditions across Anguilla, St. Martin/St. Maarten and the rest of the Northern Leeward Islands will continue to deteriorate. The eye of Omar is expected to pass just west of Anguilla at around 3:30 am EST. It should be noted that the strongest sustained hurricane force winds of Omar(100-120 mph) is located on the east and southeast side of the eye which means islands such as Anguilla and St. Maarten will take the full brunt of this storm.

[bvigal]

Try this a third time - keeps losing my post: MEGA Apologies to MJ, my statement was a quick reminder this is for local reports from residents of the area, and it sounded like an argument developing to me, those kind that result in nested nested nested nested replies to replies, between two people who don't even live here. My bad, sorry to be rude.

I'm a little stressed right now, was only going to spend 10 minutes reading... the generator is having wild voltage fluctuations and surge protector doesn't protect my computer against that.

[caribepr]

Try this a third time - keeps losing my post: MEGA Apologies to MJ, my statement was a quick reminder this is for local reports from residents of the area, and it sounded like an argument developing to me, those kind that result in nested nested nested nested replies to replies, between two people who don't even live here. My bad, sorry to be rude.

I'm a little stressed right now, was only going to spend 10 minutes reading... the generator is having wild voltage fluctuations and surge protector doesn't protect my computer against that.

Sucky foo!!!! Hang in, chica, it's almost over. Sorta.

[bvigal]

We've been getting some blasts of wind now, but still hard to judge winds out in the open from this protected location. They shut off the island's power about 10:45. One shelter had to close and relocate due to flooding. One road is closed due to flood debris. We have certainly dodged a bullet (as far as winds) with the track shift east. The real hazard, as we've been expecting for days, is the rain. Best wishes to those still upwind!

[KealaSxm]

It's really pouring with rain now here in SXM with strong gusts - the storm is here. We still have power.

Thanks to everyone on this forum for keeping us so well informed. And best of luck to everyone in the path of Omar.

Keala

[caribepr]

Uh oh...I was ready to go to bed. Signed off on my forum saying...nada. It's dead calm here now, no rain, no wind, nothing! So...it's coming...? I've been waiting.