Arabian Sea: Invest 99A - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[salmon123]

LOOKS GREAT TO B ANOTHER HEALTHY SYSTEM

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking really really good with nice convection, nice curving to. Likely a tropical cyclone soon!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _id_1.html

Northly and westly wind on quickscat, with 35-40 knot wind flags. Tropical storm if it has a closed LLC. In which it very well have.

[CrazyC83]

It's moving west so it has plenty of warm water ahead.

[HURAKAN]

[salmon123]

It's moving west so it has plenty of warm water ahead.

sorry CrazyC83 but if it moves westward it will found dry air and low sea temperature but nortward area has plenty of warm water .

[badkhan]

It looks to be moving a bit northwestward.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.0N 74.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF COCHIN, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT
IN A 221256Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH THE AXIS OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC HAS
BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[badkhan]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23- 10- 2008.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS issued at 0600 utc OF 23 oCTOBER, 2008 based on 0300 UTC of 23 OCTOBER 2008(.)

(2) THE FEEBLE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF KERALA-KARNATAKA COAST NOW LIES AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KERALA AND KARNATAKA COAST. IT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE MARKED. BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN 9.00N TO 15.00N AND LONG. 66.00E TO 73.00E IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

99A on 21st : http://modis-atmos.gsfc.nasa.gov/IMAGES ... rgb143.jpg

[salmon123]

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSE STRENGTH .

[HURAKAN]

24/1430 UTC 12.3N 73.5E T1.5/1.5 99A -- Arabian Sea

[wyq614]

Downgraded to poor

[HURAKAN]

Downgraded to poor

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
73.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 73.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEAL THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED.
THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC, BUT
OUTFLOW FROM BAY OF BENGAL IS LIMITING OUTFLOW FOR THIS AREA
CREATING MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[wyq614]

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSE STRENGTH .

Good prediction! If SALMON123 were in my forum, I would add 5 scores for him.

[badkhan]

Make that 2.

Minus 3 for shouting it out.