ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
11N82W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE LOW IS
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 75W.
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...IT WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTING N TO NE SURFACE
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
11N-15N W OF 75W. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER RIDGE PRESENT
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM N COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W TO 18N82W TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N85W.

$$
COHEN

[HURAKAN]

302
TCCA23 KNHC 251326
STDWCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE NOV 25 2008


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...CARIBBEAN LOW

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
25/1215 UTC 10.3N 82.4W 290/05 25.8 IN 24.2 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.9 IN 0.0 TO 2.2 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 1.0 TO 5.5 IN 0.5 TO 5.6 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.6 TO 6.1 IN 6.2 TO 24.2 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.5 IN 5.4 TO 23.7 IN


...LEGEND...

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)

DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT

LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE

MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS

MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART

LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Best track:

AL, 96, 2008112512, , BEST, 0, 110N, 823W, 25, 1007, DB

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

curious why this area is getting very little attention. Now if it were August....I guess since its almost December the perception is that hurricane season is over.

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 251430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST TUE 25 NOVEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z NOVEMBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-178

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

III. NOTE: WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
JWP

[wxman57]

curious why this area is getting very little attention. Now if it were August....I guess since its almost December the perception is that hurricane season is over.

I think it's more than a perception - hurricane season IS over. The chances of this thing developing remain quite low. Wind shear is still a problem, and there's no evidence of rotation at the surface or aloft. Typically there's at least SOME rotation with invests, but not this one. That's why I say it's one of the weaker invests of the season. And pressures are now rising across the western Caribbean. It's quite common for convection to persist in this region late in the season, but development is rare.

[jinftl]

I guess if people are not interested in 96L, just don't post about it. Thread after thread about why this is even an invest only serves to bring attention to the invest. This is an invest....not a td, not a named storm. S2K members didn't give it an invest #. Chances for devlopment are low...under 20%...but if people are interested in discussing it, the 'probability' of development shouldn't be a criteria for 'overall discussion worthiness'. Similarly, there is under a 20% chance of snow in the deep south for the next few weeks, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be and won't be discussed.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Obviously blown open by shear. Broad Low drifting WNW towards Nicaragua.

Wouldn't write it off, but we are nearly to December so common sense says low chance. You can see shear taking the N top off as soon as the convection moves north away from the center.

[Frank2]

True - the '85 season was the last one that really featured a November summer-like pattern across the southeast (per Hurricane Kate, 23 years ago today) - not even 2005 could say that...

I guess lake-effect snow tends to mean it's end of the hurricane season (save for thundersnow)...

LOL

Frank

[HURAKAN]

647
ABNT20 KNHC 251723
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cyclenall]

convective parameterization is well known in the community. I even went over a basic parameterization when giving a lecture to the undergrads in their dynamics class a couple of weeks ago. See chapter 11 of the Holton text book

I meant the online weather community. I wish I had this so called "Holton" textbook I keep reading about .

[jinftl]

Given that we have a potential flooding event unfolding from 96L.....whether or not it develops at all any further...i hope we don't lose sight of the potential impacts it could cause to areas of Central & South America.... while debating the merit of the system (and the merits of even discussing it).

HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[wxman57]

Here's a current surface analysis and satellite. Still nothing there - not even a broad surface low. Just scattered storms.

[Ivanhater]

curious why this area is getting very little attention. Now if it were August....I guess since its almost December the perception is that hurricane season is over.

I think it's more than a perception - hurricane season IS over. The chances of this thing developing remain quite low. Wind shear is still a problem, and there's no evidence of rotation at the surface or aloft. Typically there's at least SOME rotation with invests, but not this one. That's why I say it's one of the weaker invests of the season. And pressures are now rising across the western Caribbean. It's quite common for convection to persist in this region late in the season, but development is rare.

This is exactly what I am talking about. I can't understand why you use absolutes like this, especially in the field of meteorology. So your telling me that you know for a certainty that there will be no development in the entire Atlantic like that of epsilon or Vince? Most likely it wont, but you like to use absolutes a lot and I think your track record especially this year would be better if you were more cautious..jmo

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF is a bit more bullish on development. I think its got about a 40% chance still. There is major ridging that is forecasted to develop across most of the Caribbean and Florida by the weekend. This pattern is going to reverse the last couple of weeks of major troughiness.

[Brent]

curious why this area is getting very little attention. Now if it were August....I guess since its almost December the perception is that hurricane season is over.

I think it's more than a perception - hurricane season IS over. The chances of this thing developing remain quite low. Wind shear is still a problem, and there's no evidence of rotation at the surface or aloft. Typically there's at least SOME rotation with invests, but not this one. That's why I say it's one of the weaker invests of the season. And pressures are now rising across the western Caribbean. It's quite common for convection to persist in this region late in the season, but development is rare.

Actually it's not til Sunday, and of course there's the string of December storms lately, but that being said I don't see this doing much either.

[Derek Ortt]

I do see a low with this system... in the EPAC

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 252331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2331.shtml