Enhanced wording on winter storm warnings?

[CrazyC83]

I've just been thinking that some high-end winter storm warnings might warrant some enhanced wording, like the Particularly Dangerous Situation wording used by the Storm Prediction Center. Would it work for high-end and dangerous events that can be especially life-threatening, such as 1 inch or more ice, a mega-blizzard like in the Dakotas last weekend, or 12-24 inches or more snow?

[Lowpressure]

I think you would need to be careful as to not create complacency once these would be established. Like a high end Cat2 hurricane can be very nasty as we saw last season, but it was not a major by classification- yet anyway. I hear your thought process, but I would rather see them adjust the parameters that qualify as a warning ect. Example would be DC Winter Storm Warning snowfall is 4.5 inches- maybe raise it to 6, with 4.5 being winter weather adv. The other option might be Categories of Winter Storms, but I think winter has too many facets such as ice or extreme cold- it would become too confusing.

I just say raise parameters a bit. I think the term blizzard by the NWS is still used in rather rae cases, it does not seem to throw the term around loosely.

[Dionne]

After having lived all of my life in the far north before moving to the sunbelt.....I am of the opinion that the term "ice" and "freezing rain" is enough warning. All of us that have experienced those conditions know what to expect.

On a side note.....I recall the ominous warning by NWS the day before Katrina made landfall. I kept thinking.....is this really happening?

[Lowpressure]

Very good point Dionne regarding Katrina. When needed the NWS or NHC can word things very strongly over and above the normal warnings. That Katrina reading still will send a chill down your spine.

[CrazyC83]

Here is what I think the criteria should be:

Winter Storm Warning - Colder areas (average temperature <32F for coldest month) - ONE of the following:
a) 6" snow within 12 hours
b) 9" snow within 24 hours
c) 6" snow + at least 1/10" (but under 5/8") freezing rain within 24 hours
d) 6" snow within 24 hours + 40 mph wind gusts producing blowing snow

Winter Storm Warning - Warmer areas (average temperature >32F for coldest month) - ONE of the following:
a) 4" snow within 12 hours
b) 6" snow within 24 hours
c) 4" snow + at least 1/10" (but under 5/8") freezing rain within 24 hours
d) 4" snow within 24 hours + 40 mph wind gusts producing blowing snow

Anything less than those would be a Winter Weather Advisory. If those snow amounts are met thanks to a lake effect, a Lake Effect Snow Warning would be issued.

Ice Storm Warning - ONE of the following
a) 1/2" freezing rain within 24 hours, unless qualifying as a Winter Storm Warning
b) 5/8" freezing rain within 24 hours, regardless of snow amounts (superseding the Winter Storm Warning)
c) 1" freezing rain, regardless of length of the event

Measurable amounts (at least 1/10") but under 1/2" would be a Freezing Rain Advisory.

Blizzard Warning - ALL of the following
a) 40 mph sustained winds or 58 mph gusts in blowing snow
b) Visibility reduced under 1/2 mile in blowing snow
c) Wind chills at least meeting Wind Chill Advisory criteria (depending on location). A High Wind Warning would be issued and a Blowing Snow Warning should be created and issued for ground blizzards with lower wind chills. If the criteria is not met, a Blowing Snow Advisory would be issued.

Watches should be the same criteria as warnings, just with 36 to 48 hour notice. (A new advisory, an Ice Storm Watch, should also be created).

[RL3AO]

Considering a lot of people call meteorologists "weather terrorists" here in Minnesota for their incredible over-coverage of a six-inch snowfall, I imagine if they started adding more warnings like a PDS, people would scream at their TV telling the mets to go f...well, you can figure that out.

[Brent]

Winter Storm Warning - Warmer areas (average temperature >32F for coldest month) - ONE of the following:
a) 4" snow within 12 hours

LOL 2" in 12 hours is WSW criteria here.

[CrazyC83]

Considering a lot of people call meteorologists "weather terrorists" here in Minnesota for their incredible over-coverage of a six-inch snowfall, I imagine if they started adding more warnings like a PDS, people would scream at their TV telling the mets to go f...well, you can figure that out.

Those would be for the real historic events, i.e. a 48-hour blizzard, 1-2" of ice (similar to the 1998 ice storm), 12-24" of snow or more, etc.

[Dave]

My company has a server outage this afternoon and I was curious to see what the weather conditions around Seattle WA. Checked the NWS and found this, it's an 18+ minute discussion of today & sunday's storm coming onshore right now. Major snowstorm from what I'm listening to.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/Dec20-21WinterStorm/player.html

And a lot of explanations on why, where, what, and how long, wish we had that type of presentation from our local nws office.

We might get power back to our servers by christmas, well I wanted a few days off anyway.

[tomboudreau]

NWS already has very strict guidelines that they follow for winter storm warnings I feel. I dont believe they need to use anymore enhanced wording then they do. If they (NWS) feels that they need to use stronger wording, the use it in the actual statement. Most offices use the following for Winter Storm Warnings up in the north - An average of 6 or more inches of snow in a 12 hour period, or 8 or more inches of snow in a 24 hour period. A blizzard warning when visibility is under a quarter mile visibility for longer the 3 hours in blowing or falling snow and sustained winds or frequent gusts over 35 miles per hour. An an ice storm warning is usually issued when greater then a quarter of an inch of ice or more is forecasted to fall.

[wall_cloud]

We tend to get a lot of blowing snow here in the TX Panhandle so we tend to enhance the wording of our advisories when we are not expecting to meet the Winter Storm Warning criteria (6 in in 24 hr). There is a caveat in the directives that will allow you to use forecaster discretion when issuing a Warning for events not meeting locally set criteria, but its still a blurry line and we are still feeling things out since this is our first year at a 6 in threshhold. We may also enhance a Warning if "near blizzard" conditions are expected (say 1/2-3/4 SM vsbys).

Such wording may say something like...strong north winds will result in areas of blowing snow which may reduce visibilities to 1/2 mile at times...

[CrazyC83]

I guess NWS Norman caught the idea?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2009

.UPDATE...
REMAINING LOW POPS ACROSS N OK AND SE OK HAVE BEEN REMOVED. SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM CO/NM LATER TONIGHT BUT STILL THINK
MOSTLY CLEAR WILL WORK.

WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS EVENING TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH. 00Z NAM IS JUST ARRIVING. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS POTENTIAL
TO BE A PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT AND DISRUPTIVE HEAVY SNOW EVENT
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA... ESPECIALLY FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. NAM
AND GFS HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR GUNS WITH RUN-TOTAL SNOWFALL
IN THE RANGE OF 20+ INCHES IN PARTS OF NW OK AND ADJACENT KS/TX -
WHICH IS HARD TO BELIEVE AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR MUCH LESS THE
FIRST WEEK OF SPRING. 00Z NAM HAS DOUBLE-DIGIT TOTALS INTO EXTREME
NW OK BY MID-EVENING FRIDAY... 15-20 INCHES INTO HARPER COUNTY BY
09Z SAT... AND AGAIN DUMPS AN EXTRAORDINARY 30+ INCHES IN SW KS.
THIS RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LEADING TO
INCREASING CONCERN THAT THIS SNOW EVENT WILL BE ONE FOR THE
AGES... AND THAT WE NEED TO RAMP IT UP FURTHER WITH WHAT AMOUNTS
TO A "PDS" WINTER STORM WATCH. UPDATED WSW WILL TREND THAT WAY
AND SHOULD BE OUT BY 10 PM. STRONG WINDS AND RELATED BLOWING/DRIFTING
EASILY COULD MAKE THIS ONE OF THE MOST CRIPPLING S-PLAINS
SNOWSTORMS IN RECENT HISTORY... ALTHOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO ATTAIN BLIZZARD CRITERIA. ALL
USERS ARE URGED TO TAKE THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION SERIOUSLY AND
PREPARE AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FOR WHAT MAY END UP BEING ESSENTIALLY
AN UNPRECEDENTED LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN NW OK. 24