Florida Weather

[boca]

Laurel Hill Florida's forecast low is 9°F on Friday night.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

[frankthetank]

Just got an email from my brother in Playa Del Carmen, Mexico. Said they better get some sun soon! I told him not to hold his breath.

Dewpoint in Cancun is down to 63F and temp only 72F under clouds. N winds.

-25F here tonite boys See how big i can get this gas bill.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Laurel Hill Florida's forecast low is 9°F on Friday night.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... it=0&lg=en

Wow. 9F would be considered cold for almost anywhere in the United States. It is hard to believe that a place in FLORIDA might fall that low with this event.

[jdray]

NWS Jax only puts out forecast for their designated forecast area...not the state of florida...since that NWS office encompasses areas in GA & FL, the only areas of FL they are speaking of is the area under their watch. NWS offices wouldn't outstep their bounds like that and possibly put contradictory info on another area's domain. NWS Jax can't put out a freeze watch for Miami.

I think it was more of them mentioning the cold penetrating farther south than what one might normally assume.

[jinftl]

Believe it or not, the 'average' annual minimum temp in parts of the interior panhandle is between 10-15 deg. A temp of 9 deg would not be so unusual in that location. The panhandle has a very different climate than further down the peninsula...possibly due in part that polar airmasses don't have to traverse water before reaching the panhandle and the interior 'valley' locations are prone to radiational cooling.

Map below shows USDA Climate Regions across the Sunshine State....7 in total.....with the average annual minimum temps expected within those regions. Region 8a has actually had readings below 0 deg. Region 11 in Key West has never been below 41 deg.

That the average annual min temps may be reached in north and central (parts anyways) florida with this cold snap....but not in south florida (esp se coast)...tells me that this cold airmass isn't penetrating as far as south with as much vigor as others clearly have in years past. No doubt in my mind that Miami and Fort Lauderdale would be forecasting lows of 35-40 in the urban and beach locations with this level of cold to the north if it was making it all the way down (not 48-53 deg that is forecast in the metro and coastal locations).

[jinftl]

Temps range from the mid-40s in Pensacola to nearing 70 in south florida in the keys at noon....the dewpoints statewide range from the 10s and 20s north to 30s and 40s central to around 50 south....the dewpoints will be a good indicator of where temps are heading tonight...or at least a 'not lower than' threshhold.

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1200 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

PENSACOLA 46
APALACHICOLA 51
TALLAHASSEE 48
GAINESVILLE 53
JACKSONVILLE 50
ORLANDO INTL 60
DAYTONA BEACH 60
MELBOURNE 63.
VERO BEACH 62
TAMPA 62
SARASOTA 64
FT MYERS 60
KEY WEST INTL 69
W PALM BEACH 68
FT LAUDERDALE 68
MIAMI 66

[frankthetank]

Hmmm... Looking good

[gatorcane]

Yes, I just took a drive through the Boca Raton area in Palm Beach County, its gorgeous out here. The first cold front that moved through is providing a very nice airmass for Southern Florida with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the mid 50s.....the extended outlook for SE Florida shows highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s to around 50 as the brunt of the arctic air pounds the rest of SW, Central FL, and northern FL, leaving SE Florida under nearly perfect weather conditions for at least 5 days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 141918 CCA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

...HARD FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...

...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND WE
MAY SEE OUR COLDEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OVER A DECADE...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO DIG. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS SEASON AND POSSIBLY THE COLDEST IN OVER
A DECADE TO SPILL DOWN INTO THE LOCAL REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN OUR CWA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY. WE EXPECT A SCATTERING OF CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT OTHERWISE
NO SENSIBLE WEATHER. LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
OVER ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND
OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT A HARD FREEZE. TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY`S WITH MID TO UPPER 50S COMMON. A HARD FREEZE IS
LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WE WILL KEEP THE
HARD FREEZE WATCH UP FOR NOW. ALSO...FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE BORDERLINE FOR OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHICH WOULD
INCLUDE THE DOTHAN REGION. THIS WILL BE REVISITED TOMORROW AND WE
MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. THE COLDEST MAX
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE FRIDAY WITH
READINGS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT INSOLATION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS WILL
COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD
OR JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. SEE THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILED DISCUSSION. ALSO...LISTED BELOW IS SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL
INFORMATION CONCERNING EXTREME MIN TEMPS AT TALLAHASSEE.

..........JANUARY TLH CLIMATE 1892-2008 (116 YRS)..........

RECORD LOW = 6F 1985
# DAYS BELOW 15 F = 11
# DAYS BELOW 20 F = 70

............................................................

LAST OCCURRENCE OF THE FOLLOWING MIN TEMPS AT TALLAHASSEE:

18 DEGREES ...... FEB 17 2007
16 DEGREES ...... FEB 5 1996
13 DEGREES ...... DEC 24 1989

Amazing to think that if 13F is reached in Tallahassee, it will tie the December 1989 event!

[jinftl]

Locals have even taken their sweaters and jackets off….actually a gorgeous, pleasant afternoon….high temps so far…

West Palm Beach - 70 (forecast was 69)
Fort Lauderdale – 74 (forecast was 70)
Miami – 73 (forecast was 71)

What is interesting is that winds have veered to ne in both Miami and Fort Lauderdale and dewpts are rising through the 50s. Might not be until next push of cold air later in week that this cold snap ‘peaks” (probably Friday night) that Miami & FLL Airport may drop below 50 deg.

[JonathanBelles]

Low 60's here now, nice day, I got too warm with pants and a tshirt on. Also, local NWS has predicted 37 for HERE. Tampa is now predicted for 30...and dropping.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is going to be frigid. Saint Petersburg will be down in the 30s. I will likely see
some frost by Saturday morning, and lows very close with freezing with wind chills
in the 20s.

[jinftl]

Current dewpoints...not a bad indicator of tonight's forecast lows...i know another push of cold, dryer air is coming later in the week, but not sure how much lower dewpoints will go as the night goes on...be interesting to see

[jinftl]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1220 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009

A SECONDARY SURGE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 7 AND 15 MPH, EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE VICINITY OF LAKES, WHICH WILL BRING IN MORE COLD DRY AIR. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIAL ADVECTIVE FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST SOUTH INTO EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES.

FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS CHARLOTTE AND EASTERN LEE COUNTIES. ALSO, WITH THE WINDS REMAINING BETWEEN 7 AND 15 MPH THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE NEXT NIGHT, FRIDAY NIGHT, LOOKS EVEN COLDER WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. IF THESE TEMPERATURES OCCUR THEY WILL BE SIMILAR TO JANUARY 3, 2008.

THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORD VALUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY MORNING, BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORDS WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Laurel Hill, FL is now forecast to get down to only 7 degrees on Friday night:

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 6.4568&e=0

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 7. Calm wind.

That is only 9 degrees warmer than the all-time record low for the state of Florida set way back in 1899 (-2F)!

[Scorpion]

That's just crazy how they're getting down to 7 and Orlando is only getting down to 35 or so. Hopefully the trend continues to get colder

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

You would think that with 6*F in north florida it would be 18-20*F in Tampa
and Orlando...and 28*-32*F in Miami, and 39*F at Key West...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well so much for those cold panhandle forecasts. Tallahassee has warmed their prediction of 13F up to 21F and Laurel Hill has had its prediction of 7F warmed to 16F. Still cold numbers, but definitely not as amazing as they were yesterday.

[jinftl]

So far the forecasted cold has been a bust for most of florida....temps stayed at least several degrees warmer than even forecast as late as 10pm last night...the next shot of cold air may very well be colder.....but let's recap last night:

Orlando - actual low -45, forecasted - 37

Tampa - actual low - 43, forecasted - 39

West Palm - actual low - 53, forecasted - 49

Fort Lauderdale - actual low - 58, forecasted - 51

Miami - actual low - 59 (1 deg below normal), forecasted - 51

Even Crestivew only got down into the mid 20's from what I can see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So far the forecasted cold has been a bust for most of florida....temps stayed at least several degrees warmer than even forecast as late as 10pm last night...the next shot of cold air may very well be colder.....but let's recap last night:

Orlando - actual low -45, forecasted - 37

Tampa - actual low - 43, forecasted - 39

West Palm - actual low - 53, forecasted - 49

Fort Lauderdale - actual low - 58, forecasted - 51

Miami - actual low - 59 (1 deg below normal), forecasted - 51

Even Crestivew only got down into the mid 20's from what I can see.

Where did you get 45F for Orlando? From the records I am looking at, the Orlando International Airport fell to 41F last night: http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMCO.html