Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST SAT FEB 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY
EAST NORTHEAST AND BUILD THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE
INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AT 4 AM AST. NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THOUGH TODAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME LOCALLY ROUGH SURF AND ABOVE NORMAL BREAKERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...10 FOOT OR
GREATER BREAKING WAVES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA. IN ADDITION...SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL STILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS...TO MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH LATE TODAY. THEREAFTER...LONG
PERIOD SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INCREASES THE LOCAL
WIND FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST SUN FEB 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THAT HEIGHTS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY
AND BROAD TROUGHINESS BECOMES LOCATED FIRST JUST TO THE WEST
OF...AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND PROBABLY CONTINUING FOR
FRIDAY ALSO.

THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME AND WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FA FROM THE EAST AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AT THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXPECT LIMITED MOISTURE IN PATCHES AND BANDS AGAIN...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS CAPPING AND MUCH BEATER VENTILATION...SHOULD BE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PASSING SHRA. IN ADDITION...SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY HIGHEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST...NORTHWEST AND NORTH WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

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[cycloneye]

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 231941
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON FEB 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER LAND IN THE PAST
FEW HOURS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY.

THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SHOWER AND CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING
SHRA MAINLY ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA...BUT IN GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FLYING
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...UP TO 30 KNOTS...
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335 PM AST TUE FEB 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER AND SATELLITES IMAGES SHOWED ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO CU LINES DEVELOPED OVER THE ADJACENT ISLAND BUT NONE OF THESE
SHOWERS PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE FEW SHOWERS THE
LIMITING FACTOR ONCE AGAIN WAS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.

THE NAM MODEL IS SUGGESTING A SLIGHT SHIFT ON THE WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHEAST COMPONENT. THIS WILL HELP MOISTURE TO MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BEGAN TO SHIFT TO A MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING
SHRA MAINLY ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 252019 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED FEB 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...FEW SHOWERS STARTED TO
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
LATEST MIMIC TPW SHOWED AN AREA OF MOISTURE APPROACHING THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z NAM12 COMPUTER
MODEL SHOWS THIS AREA MOVING NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO AROUND 06Z
TOMORROW MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS AM710.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST THU FEB 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS STARTED TO DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. MEANWHILE...THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WAS RAIN FREE
DURING MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED WINDS
BETWEEN 60-70KT BETWEEN 350-200MB LEVELS. FOR LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR NEXT WEEK...GFS360 COMPUTER MODEL
IS SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT CONVECTION TO LINGER OVER THE TJMZ/TJPS AREA
UNTIL AROUND 2300Z THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE OVER THE WATERS OF THE MONA
PASSAGE. SOME TOPS TO AROUND 30KFT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS
ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO MVFR VSBYS...AND TS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT TJMZ. AFTERWARD...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN
BY 00Z LEAVING VFR FOR NEXT 12 HOURS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER TJMZ/TJBQ AND CENTRAL INTERIOR PR WITH MVFR
CIGS...AND PASSING LIGHTER SHOWERS OVER THE VI/EASTERN PR AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS AM710.

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 272021
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 PM AST FRI FEB 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC FROM JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC EMBEDDED IN LARGE SCALE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. UPR
LVL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW AXIS OF BROAD TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE CWA WITH STRONG UPR LVL SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
OVER THE WEEKEND...SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO THE LAST TWO DAYS
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
MAINTAINING THE AREA UNDER A LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND REGIME.
HOWEVER...POTENT UPR LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH THE U.S.
EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN AN AMPLIFYING
LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT WILL STRENGTHEN A MID TO UPR LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POPS TRENDING DOWN TOWARDS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRAILING END OF COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY LATE TUESDAY AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING PERHAPS IN A SLIGHT INCREASE AGAIN OF
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A SLIGHT COOLING TOWARDS THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT TRENDING DOWN. THIS IS MOSTLY
DUE TO NELY SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH. RECENT
READINGS FROM BUOY 41043 REPORT 7 FEET SEAS IN LIGHT WINDS. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH WW3 FORECAST AS WELL AS CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE SWELLS WILL NOT COMPLETELY SUBSIDE UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY SO WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
BEYOND THAT...SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET ACROSS ALL OF THE
WATERS UNTIL INCREASING BACK AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS AS NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND COLD FRONT.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 AM AST SAT FEB 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
VI AND SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THIS PASSING
AREA OF MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO A VARIABLY CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WILL TRY TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONTINUED
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...TO RESULT IN A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TO ADVECT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY...
HELPING TO CREATE A MOIST MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS LINGERED
JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN DORADO AND HATILLO
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ALSO BEGAN TO MOVE ACROSS THE VI THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
APART FROM BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE PASSING
SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH 16Z. HOWEVER AFTER 28/16Z...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH COASTAL
AREAS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
ENROUTE BTWN TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 28/18Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN
BE THEREFORE BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO
RICO AFTER 28/18Z.

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010856
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED
ABUNDANT RAIN FREE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST
RADAR OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST SOUTHWEST UNDER A PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS BRUSHED THE NORTHERN COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTED THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BUT IN GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE DETECTED.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL
EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST...LIMITING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
BE SHORT LIVED BECAUSE BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM MODELS SUGGEST
THAT FOR LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OR SHEAR LINE WILL BE NEAR OR JUST ACROSS
THE FA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH EXPECTED GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
BY THAT TIME...THE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 01/16Z. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT MVFR AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
DURING THE AFTERNOON BTWN 01/18-01/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD BY WEDNESDAY PUSHING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERATE
SEAS OF AT LEAST 7 FEET BEGINNING THURSDAY AND INCREASING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

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[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON MAR 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INDUCED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A DEEP LAYERED LONG
WAVE TROUGH BECOMES AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWARDS ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TODAY AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAILING THE COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE PUSHING
THE FRONTAL REMNANTS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD
TODAY AND RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
WILL CREATE A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT LESS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THE SCENARIO QUICKLY CHANGES AS THE SHARP LONG
WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND
THE STRONG TRAILING SURFACE HIGH PUSHES THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT AND CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FRONTAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AND VERY UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL HOWEVER MIGHT BE A LITTLE OFF ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT KEPT HIGH POPS WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER IN THE WEEK...AND WILL MAKE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. UNDER A
PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW...SOME SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER
02/1700Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WEST NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY
OF TJMZ AND TJBQ...WHERE A TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-23Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 10-15K FEET...AND THEN
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF LESS THAN 17 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 FEET OR LESS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY BUILDING AREA
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST MON MAR 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVR THE EXTREME ERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EXTENDING NE INTO THE N ATLC WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROF OVR THE ERN US MOVES INTO
THE WRN ATLC TOMORROW. ASSOCIATED CDFNT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WED
NIGHT AND THU BRINGING NMRS SHRAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN FCST BY
MODELS AS CONVECTION HAS BEEN KEPT ON CHECK. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SAN SEBASTIAN AND ISABELA
WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE NW COAST BY EARLY EVENING. QUIET WX IS
EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING HRS.

OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING A
RAPID INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLES REACHING
THE USVI/VIEQUES/CULEBRA AND ERN PR BY DAYBREAK. SCT POPS WARRANTED
FOR ERN PR/USVI AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

FCST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON REMAINS DIFFICULT AS AM NOT SURE HOW
MUCH OF THAT CAP WOULD BE ERODED. ALSO COMPLICATING FACTOR IS HOW
MUCH HEATING WOULD BE ABLE TO GET AS GFS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WITH A HIGH DENSE OVC AND LOTS OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE. IT APPEARS WE
WILL STILL BE TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT/TROF TO
PROVIDE SYNOPTIC FORCING. SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IN POPS.

.DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN TAKING
SHAPE TUE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MONA
CHANNEL...RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING THE MID LAYERS. PROG SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED DEEP LAYER PROFILE AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS
MID LEVEL FORCING COURTESY OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER NWRN
PORTION OF CWA. AT THIS SAME TIME...STRONG 120 KNOT U/L JET MOVES
OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL PLACE FAVORABLE
RIGHT REAR QUAD REGION OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW
LEVEL FORCING IN CONVERGENT BAND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAKES FOR A
DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILE. CURRENT SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING OVER WESTERN PR
WEDNESDAY AFT...OVERSPREADING MOST OR ALL OF CWA WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT...WITH MOST AREAS TO
RECEIVE RAINFALL...AND AREA OF GREATEST FLOODING THREAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE WESTERN/W INTERIOR PR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
THURSDAY...U/L MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST
OF THE LEEWARDS...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS OVER PR AND THEN USVI FRIDAY. CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES
BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT JBQ THRU 00Z IN MDT SHRA.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.


&&

.MARINE...NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SYSTEM...BUT SOME WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH NORTHERN
ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY. NOT GOING TO BE LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FOR HIGH SURF CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BE 7 TO 9 FOOT SEAS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CHOPPY SHORTER PERIOD NORTH TO NE WIND WAVES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST TUE MAR 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING MID TO UPR LVL L/WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND INTO THE WESTER CARIBBEAN BASIN...WHILE A SHARP
RIDGE REMAINED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE L/W TROUGH AND
SEVERAL MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SURFACE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SOUTH ACROSS THE WINWARD PASSAGE INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MONA PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRES TRAILING THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
BUILD OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC...AS A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES
ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES TO DO SO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AS A MIXTURE OF LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING A WEAK EASTERLY PERTURBATION...MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL HOWEVER BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALSO
AFFECT THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...WILL BRING VERY UNSTABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS (DIVERGENCE/VENTILATION) TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THOSE DAYS.

BY FRIDAY...WE SHOULD BE IN THE COOL SECTOR WHERE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG PREVAILING NORTHERLIES WILL ADVERT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TO MAINLY ALONG THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS
LOCAL AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE BAND OF FRONTAL MOISTURE
WHICH SHOULD PUSH FURTHER SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL CLEARING AND A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX UNTIL AT LEAST 03/1500Z...AS AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE REGION...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST TJSJ 00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY FROM 10-20K
FEET...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2009

PRZ001>011-040415-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0001.090304T1200Z-090305T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...LAJAS
301 PM AST TUE MAR 3 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH AREA.

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT

* MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS THIS FRONT GETS CLOSER
TO THE AREA...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ISLAND. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST WED MAR 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
INCREASING THE LOCAL WINDS AND BRINGING A RETURN TO A MORE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED
ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA. AT THE SAME TIME...LATEST RADAR
OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH MAXIMUM ECHO TOPS OF
AROUND 20K FEET.

THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE...WILL BRING UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY AND
THURSDAY...AND BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO PRODUCE GOOD SHOWERS
ACTIVITY DURING THOSE DAYS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE HEAVY MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND ONLY MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMIC...NO SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. AT THIS MOMENT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY AND THE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS COULD BE HANDLE WITH SOME SPECIAL PRODUCTS LIKE NOWCAST
AND FLS AND FOR THOSE REASONS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED
EARLY THIS MORNING.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG
PREVAILING NORTHERLIES WILL TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...ALONG THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS LOCAL AREA
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
CLEARING AND A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOOKING WELL AHEAD...THE GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST APPROACHING TO THE REGION
BY THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...INCREASING THE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM...
TKPK...TJMZ AND TJBQ DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TISX...TIST...TJSJ
AND TJPS UNTIL AT LEAST 04/1500Z AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS STREAM ACROSS THESE TAF SITES. EXPECT WETTER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN A PASSING SHRA OR TSRA ACROSS ALL THE PR
TAF SITES AFTER 04/1900Z...AND SPREADING ACROSS THE VI LATER IN
THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES SEABOARD BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL SOUTHERN WATERS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GENERATE SEAS OF AT LEAST 7 FEET
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

[cycloneye]

EA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST THU MAR 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONT OVR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION WHILE DISSIPATING. STRONG HIGH PRES OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL BUILD EWD OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. OVER THE
WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS.


&&

.DISCUSSION....SHORT TERM...AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 15Z CLEARLY SHOWS FRONTAL BDRY
OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN VIEQUES/CULEBRA AND THE USVI. FRONT APPEARS
TO HAVE RUN OUT OF GAS AS WINDS AT ST. THOMAS ARPT HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE SE AFTER BEING FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
NNE WINDS BLOWING AGAINST THE NRN SLOPES ACT TO ENHANCE PRECIP
ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF PR. BRIEF DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NUISANCE FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST BUT
THINK THAT BY AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR TO PREVENT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE CLOUDY MOST OF THE
DAY WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE SOUTH AND
WEST COAST SHOULD SEE MORE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WITH ONLY A SLIM
CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF SHRA OR SPRINKLE.

LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED)...MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG
TERM WILL BE MARINE ISSUES...AS DECENT FETCH DEVELOPS FROM A STRONG
CUTOFF LOW NEAR 50W 30N. WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE STRONG AS A GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN IT AND A STRENGTHENING HIGH
OVER THE SERN US. 25 TO 30 KNOTS IS LIKELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FROM THE NNE...TO CREATE 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL AND VERY
LIKELY HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA AS NEARLY 4 METER ENERGY AT 12
SECONDS REACHES THE LOCAL WATERS SAT-SUN. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY WILL BE DAY OF GREATEST THREAT...WITH VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT
POTENTIAL AND BREAKING WAVES UP TO 20 FEET LIKELY IF SITUATION
REMAINS CONSISTENT. COORDINATED WITH TAFB ON THIS EVENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION. MARINE USERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE 10 TO
15 FOOT SEAS OVER THE ATLC WATERS...SLIGHTLY LESS THRU THE
PASSAGES...AND VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

ATMOSPHERICALLY SPEAKING...NOTHING OF MAJOR CONCERN IN THE LONG
TERM. VERY DRY AIRMASS TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE
WEEKEND..BRINGING POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED TO NO WEATHER RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 50`S IN THIS POST FRONTAL...BONE
DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME FRIGID TEMPS OVER THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S LOW 50S NEAR ADJUNTAS
AND AIBONITO TYPE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...NNE WINDS NEXT 24 HRS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NRN COASTAL SITES. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH ANY +SHRA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 PM AST FRI MAR 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE SLOWLY DISSIPATING REMNANTS
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN JUST
BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF
THE UNITED STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARDS ACROSS THE
WEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL REGION A DEVELOPING GALE CENTER ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARDS
TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...AS THE FRONTAL REMNANTS NOW SOUTHEAST
OF THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUED TO SINK FURTHER SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WHILE DISSIPATING. OVERALL DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE U.S
VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLIER IN THE DAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE THE REGION WERE MINIMAL.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION...AND
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOME EARLY
MORNING PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOWEVER BE TRANSPORTED IN
FROM THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT OVERALL LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYTIME... WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY GUSTY WINDS GOING ON AT MOST SITES. EXPECT 30 TO 40 KNOT GUSTS
AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 20 KT RANGES AT ALL NORTHERN SITES
(TJBQ/TJSJ/TISX) AND ANY SMALLER AIRPORTS ON THE NORTH COASTS. MOST
OF THE MVFR CIGS ARE SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS BY NOW...WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF MVFR AT TISX...TNCM AND TKPK. EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ALSO WENT WITH LLWS AT TIST...SITE IS PREDISPOSED
TO RECEIVING SHEAR FROM STRONG NORTHERLY GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS AND CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACROSS ALL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED
TO REMAIN IN PROTECTED WATERS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND OR
NOT VENTURE OUT. SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FEET ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
OVER THE NON PROTECTED ATLANTIC WATERS. IN ADDITION...LONGER
PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
IN THE SURF ZONE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS BREAKING WAVES OVER 15
FEET ARE POSSIBLE OVER REEFS AND SHOALS OF THE NORTHERN COASTLINES.
THEREFORE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN
FACING COASTLINES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 AM AST SAT MAR 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1000 MILES
NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WILL SAG SOUTH AND THEN
SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AN ACCOMPANYING JET CURRENTLY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX WILL BE CARRIED WITH IT BUT REMNANTS OF
THE JET WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA AND PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK
CAUSING THE JET TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. FLOW AT
UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY OVER FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST TO THE LOCAL
AREA BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. A CUT-OFF LOW BELOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS
ELONGATED TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...WILL SPIN SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. AFTER WHICH FLOW IS
CHARACTERIZED BY THE MIGRATING RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE.

AT LOWER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
SPLIT APART BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THE WEST HALF OF THIS HIGH MOVES BACK TOWARD
FLORIDA AND WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL HOLD STRONGER
THAN USUAL GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. THE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING AWAY ON
MONDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEHIND IT.
THIS KEEPS GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND
ENHANCES THE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK. MOISTURE SPUN
OFF OF BOTH THESE LOWS WILL PASS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRENGTHENS NORTH OF US DURING THAT TIME
WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE YIELDED A RELATIVELY DRY END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN DIVES IN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE PACE OF MIGRATING SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGHS AND LOWS
PICKS UP AND FLOW CONTINUES TO BE EASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FORMING LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST QUITE WELL AND AS AN ADDED BONUS IT ALSO SHOWS A
STRONG VORTICITY CENTER TRAVELING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
WHICH IS FORMING THE ELONGATION OF THE LOW TOWARD US MENTIONED
ABOVE. THIS WILL CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS WHEN THE WAKE OF THE RAPIDLY
MOVING VORTICITY CENTER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TODAY
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT ON EXAMINATION OF THE WINDS YESTERDAY...THIS
WILL NOT LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PUT UP A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 MPH. NEVERTHELESS...WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION LIKELY
EARLY IN THE MORNING...GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE A FEW TIMES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS WITH GOOD CHANNELING
OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...SUCH AS SAINT THOMAS AND MAYAGUEZ. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WINDY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO HOW
LITTLE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH MOVES DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SHOWERS...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AFTER THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK...IT THEN MOVES QUICKLY NORTH AND STRENGTHENS FROM
1002 MB AT 10/18Z TO 968 MB AT 12/06Z ACCORDING TO THE GFS. NORTH
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF THE WEST SIDE OF THIS LOW SENDS MOISTURE
BACK TOWARD PUERTO RICO AROUND A HIGH INVADING FROM THE WEST AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL NOT CARRY MORE THAN LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN DUE TO THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND HOW DRY THE AIR IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS FROM ABOUT 820 MB UP TO THE TOP OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE COMING WEEK DRY AIR ONLY
BEGRUDGINGLY GIVES WAY AT LOWER MID-LEVELS AND SHOWERS PEAK ON
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER STRONGER SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO MOSTLY DRY. THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES WILL SEE A LITTLE OF
THIS MOISTURE AS WILL NORTHEAST COASTAL PUERTO RICO...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS OF THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...AND TJSJ DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20
TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS IN SOME AIRPORTS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS STRONG ACROSS TJPS...WHERE WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KTS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY
AND DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL NOT LIKELY
SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEFORE WEDNESDAY.
CARIBBEAN SEAS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE PROTECTED FROM WINDS AND
SEAS...AND MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO
WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER ENOUGH
ENERGY FROM WINDS AND SEAS WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE PASSAGES
...TO SPREAD 7 FOOT PLUS SEAS ALONG WEST EDGES OF OF AMZ735 AND
AMZ732 THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE EASTERN SIXTH OF AMZ732 THROUGH
TUESDAY...HENCE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THOSE AREAS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST SUN MAR 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TAIL OF THE TROPICAL JET WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK A RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE JET
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE MONDAY AFTER NEXT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT
EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT PASSING ABOUT 370 MILES NORTH OF SAINT
THOMAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WEAKLY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MID LAYERS WILL REMAIN DRY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE 10 DAY PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE LOW ALMOST 1000 MILES NORTHEAST OF
GUADELOUPE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN NORTH AS A
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OF OHIO AND NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND INTO A POSITION A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY THAN THE FIRST LOW CURRENTLY IS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE LATTER LOW AND KEEP NORTHEAST FLOW TOWARD THE AREA
STRONG. HIGHER PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEYOND
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CLOUD LAYER HAS THICKENED DRAMATICALLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED SOUTH BETWEEN THE HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE LOW PRESSURE NOW ABOUT 1000
MILES NORTHEAST OF GUADELOUPE. THIS MAY NOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED
FOR BY THE FORECAST MODELS BUT FOLLOWS WHAT THE GFS AND NAM
INDICATED WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO FROM
ABOUT 09-15Z. SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY AS WELL. SHOWERS
HOWEVER ARE NOT PRESENT AT THIS TIME AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND MAY
MAKE ONLY A NOMINAL APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...YIELDING
CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAN APPEARED SATURDAY
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW PASSING OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
DESPITE THE LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS...IN THE 50S. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...NEVERTHELESS...WILL BE QUITE LIGHT ANYWHERE RAIN FALLS
TODAY AND SKIES SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY FAIR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE FROM TIME TO TIME ESPECIALLY IN MAYAGUEZ AND SAINT THOMAS.
WINDS AND SHOWERS TAPER OFF A BIT MONDAY.

BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE
MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER AIR
MOISTENS SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SLACKENS TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL TO A
MODEST EXTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
15 TO 25 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS IN SOME LOCAL
AIRPORTS MOST PARTICULARLY TJMZ AND TIST. NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO BE 7 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
IN ALL BUT THE MOST PROTECTED AREAS BEHIND LARGE LAND MASSES AND
WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG AND GUSTY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE
BEGINNING TODAY. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK FROM SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY TO MIDDAY THURSDAY UNTIL
THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT REPLACES THE CURRENT
LOW...CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTHEAST...ON THURSDAY AND A NEW SET OF
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL BEGIN ARRIVING ON NORTHERN SHORES LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SEAS IN THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OF 7 FEET THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS EVERYWHERE THAT ATLANTIC
SWELL CANNOT REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH...MAINLY SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND CHAIN AWAY FROM THE PASSAGES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 PM AST MON MAR 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...SKIES BECAME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH
VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW LEVELS. EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO SWING BY NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PIECE
OF MOISTURE BREAKS OFF A PASSING LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. BASED ON BUOY DATA...DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...STRESSING THE
LARGEST WAVES WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EXPOSED COASTLINES DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THIS SWELL GROUP. IMPROVING MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL REACHES THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCT-BKN CEILINGS NEAR 4-6KFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE VI...TNCM...TKPK
AND TJSJ BETWEEN 04-14Z...ALONG VERY LIGHT AND LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO HAVE NO AVIATIONAL IMPACTS.

&&

.MARINE...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES EXCLUDING AMZ 735 AND AMZ 742.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 PM AST TUE MAR 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE PATTERN TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
REGION AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES INTO NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT RESULTING IN
A NEW EPISODE OF LARGE MODERATE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH TO TALK WEATHERWISE AS HIGH PRES AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SHRA CVRG WILL
BE VERY ISOLD AND BRIEF WITH A LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT PROB. CDFNT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES NEAR 35N 57W NOW SOUTH OF 30 WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED NIGHT.
ONLY CONCERNS ARE MARINE ISSUES AS ATMS IS FCST TO REMAIN DRY AND STABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRES NEAR 35N AND 57W WILL DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. WAVEWATCH III ENSEMBLE INDICATE ANOTHER
SWELL EVENT ARRIVING INTO OUR ATLC WATERS LATE THU AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH 3+METER SEAS AT 11+SECS. SCA WILL BE AGAIN
NEEDED IN ADDITION TO HIGH SURF ADVISORY.