Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 PM AST WED MAR 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ARRIVING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND FAST MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS...THEREFORE...SHOWERS WILL BE
RANGING FROM LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE OF
MOISTURE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.


MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS ON
FRIDAY DUE TO A NEW NNE SWELL EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. WWIII IS SUGGESTING A LONG PERIOD NNE SWELL TO PEAK ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH 7 TO 10 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.
DUE TO THESE EXPECTED MARINE CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN FACING COASTS OF THE
ISLANDS IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST THU MAR 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE DISSIPATING REMNANTS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY BY AN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS FRONT...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES EXPECTED...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER. OVERALL...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING IS FOR SEEN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
INCREASING ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR ALL THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 7 PM AST THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SEAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER
THIS MORNING...BRINGING A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST FRI MAR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN TYPICAL TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS THE ROUGH AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. DUE TO LARGE
BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND
REEFS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN
ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A RELATIVELY DRY
AND FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN INCREASE
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL PEAK
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 PM AST SAT MAR 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A MODEST JET WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE
AREA AFTER SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GROWS IN THE FLOW AND
PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICKLY DISSIPATING RIDGE.
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FROM MID WEEK ON...GRADUALLY
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSES
THROUGH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NEXT AND APPROACHES HISPANIOLA EARLY
IN THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK EAST-WEST TROUGH WILL HOLD JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL RETREAT TO CENTRAL AMERICA BY MID WEEK. A LONG WAVE TROUGH
THEN DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK
AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE AND A
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASS BY TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
REMAINS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE IN THE COOL FLOW OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC
THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING FREQUENT BUT SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
PUERTO RICO. FOR THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
REMAINED NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...BUT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
MODELS BRING A DRY AREA OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER PATCH OF MOISTURE DROPS IN
ON THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW AND WILL PROVIDE NUMEROUS BUT LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE ISLAND. THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD SEE A LOT MORE OF THE SHOWERS THAN SAINT
CROIX HOWEVER. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO FORM A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND THE MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY LEAVING THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DRYER THAN THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DRYER THAN TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EVEN THOUGH
IT WEAKENS IT WILL PREVENT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SECOND FRONT...THOUGH
WEAK...COULD MAKE IT THIS FAR AROUND 24 MARCH. IN THE MEANTIME
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF UNTIL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY AND
MOISTURE RECOUPS. WINDS HOWEVER WILL FALL OFF CONSIDERABLY DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
WE LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IT WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST OVERNIGHT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH ISOLATED SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 18 KTS STILL POSSIBLE
IN SOME LOCAL AIRPORTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE REACHED A SECOND PEAK AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...NEVERTHELESS EXPECT BREAKING WAVES TO BE AT
LEAST MINIMALLY WITHIN HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. STILL SEVERAL DAYS TO GO BEFORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CAN BE SHED...BUT WINDS AND SEAS DO SUBSIDE DURING THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST SUN MAR 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VI FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN
ADDITION...PATCHY MOISTURE STREAMING BY THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
BRING MAINLY ISOLATED...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS...ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

FOR TODAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEASTERN EXPOSED COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VI THROUGH 2 PM AST. WHILE BUOY DATA
HAS BEEN CONTINUING TO SHOW A GENERAL DECREASE IN SWELLS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS...BREAKING WAVES NEAR 10 FEET REMAIN PROBABLE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COASTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY. HOWEVER...ONCE THE LONG PERIOD
SWELLS SUBSIDE...AND WINDS RELAX BY LATE TUESDAY...MUCH MORE
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS TIST...TISX...TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ
TODAY...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS NEAR A PASSING -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...THE LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS THAT
HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LARGE
SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 PM AST MON MAR 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. FLOW BECOMES ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK AND
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL RE-BUILD OVER OR JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A BROAD TROUGH
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL PULL
AWAY TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO
CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND STRENGTHENS RAPIDLY WITH
LITTLE EFFECT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT GRADIENTS
WILL WEAKEN AS A TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO GENERATE A LOW AND AN
ACCOMPANYING FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY WITH ATTENDANT HUMIDITY...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BROUGHT MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO SAN JUAN AND VICINITY EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND LATER...MUCH OF THE THE NORTH COAST. A DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE COULD BE SEEN AS AN ARCH OF CLOUDS WITH AN AXIS OVER
ABOUT 61 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WHOSE KEY-STONE HAD DEVELOPED AT
ABOUT 18.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF
WHERE MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS DISTURBANCE. SINCE
THEY HAVE BEEN DRIVING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS RE-ADJUSTMENT WOULD PLACE MUCH OF THE SHOWERS THAT WOULD
HAVE OCCURRED IN THE CARIBBEAN TO OUR SOUTH OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM TSJU HAS ALSO
INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE
FORM OF VEERING WINDS ABOVE 6000 FEET. THEREFORE HAVE RAISED POPS
CONSIDERABLY...FROM 20 TO 60 PERCENT FOR NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
INCLUDING VIEQUES...AND TO 40 PERCENT FOR SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT
JOHN. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF EAST PUERTO RICO.
SURPRISINGLY THE GFS SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A
THETA-E HIGH WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E TO THE NORTH AND IT
PLACES IT QUITE WELL WITH RESPECT TO LONGITUDE. THEREFORE AM GOING
TO GO WITH THE FORECAST CLEARING OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY NOT HAVE CLEARED OUT
OF EL YUNQUE BY 8 AM...THEY SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF SAINT
THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN BY 10Z. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND. TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER. BUT SHARDS OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE SCATTERED
SHOWERS INEVITABLE WEDNESDAY AND SUCCEEDING DAYS. THE MODELS NOW
DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MAY BRING A FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY...THIS WILL
DEPEND GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND WHETHER THE JET WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS NOW CURRENT SOLUTIONS INDICATE. FOR
NOW WILL TREND TOWARD MORE MOISTURE MONDAY WITHOUT GREAT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ AS AREAS
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THESE TAF
SITES FROM THE EAST...PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
SHOWERS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW...UP TO 20 KNOTS...FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K
FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY BY
TUESDAY AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE DOWN BY 8 AM.
SEAS WILL RETURN WHEN THE SWELL FROM A STRONG LOW MIGRATES NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO LATER THIS WEEK...BUT RESULTING SEAS SHOULD BE ONLY
MARGINALLY ABOVE 7 FEET.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 PM AST TUE MAR 17 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...PUERTO RICO IS FOUND BETWEEN TWO
JETS...ONE THE DEPARTING SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND THE
OTHER A BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET AROUND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A
SUBSEQUENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SECOND LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES LATE IN THE
WEEK AND STRENGTHEN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVER PUERTO RICO FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TO AS MUCH AS 110 KNOTS. THIS JET WILL HOLD JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC.

AT MID LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AT MID LATITUDES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING WELL BEHIND THE TROUGH AT MID LATITUDES TO
THE EAST AND WILL PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL FOLLOW AND GRADUALLY BECOME ZONAL
LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TRADE WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO DRIVEN BY HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WHILE A
TROUGH OVER THE MID WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES RAPIDLY EAST AND
JOINS WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE
WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AND WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
ACROSS PUERTO RICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. COOL MOIST AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND COVERS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL MESO VORTEX THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS NOW CLEARLY
EVIDENT BOTH IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE OVER
MUCH OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. A STREAMER OFF OF EL YUNQUE WAS
NOTED...BUT LITTLE RAIN WAS SEEN UNDERNEATH IT. THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WERE GROWING OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND IN THE MID
MONA CHANNEL...OTHERWISE RADAR INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS. DRYER
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
NOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE AFTERNOONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HOWEVER. ON
SATURDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSES IN ON THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WE RETURN TO COOL SHOWERY
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH COAST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. ALSO NEXT WEEK WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO LEVELS NOT UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE...WILL EXPECT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS THE AREA OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT AFFECTED THE REGION DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS
MOVES TO THE WEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL TAF SITES. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS BUT IN
GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW...UP TO 20 KNOTS...FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 7K
FEET...WITH A BACKING WIND PROFILE AFTER THAT LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION IN MOST UNPROTECTED WATERS DUE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS. SEAS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST WED MAR 18 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TREND WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER DOMINATING THROUGH AT LEAST 24 HOURS. NEXT ROUND OF
WEATHER OUTSIDE OF ANY DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE THE SHEARLINE AND
PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT SHOULD PASS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AIR WILL BE PUSHED DOWN NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS NORTHEASTERLY BRINGS A COOLER AIRMASS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS A DRY AIR MASS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL AIRPORTS BUT IN GENERAL NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LATEST TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW...UP TO 15 KNOTS...FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 7K FEET...
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY FROM 7-15K FEET AND THEN WESTERLY ALOFT.

[cycloneye]

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 190800
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST THU MAR 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

AREAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND SEAS TO INCREASE BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK.

THE 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MIMIC SSMI/AMSRE TPW PRODUCTS
ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTING LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW EJECTING DEEPER
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SETTLES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS MODERATE TRADES PERSIST.
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A DRY AND STABLE PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN/SEABREEZE-
INDUCED AND SHOULD BE SHORT IN DURATION...WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR MAYAGUEZ. EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM.

GFS/NAM TIME HEIGHT INITIAL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE THIS PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY WHEN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
DEEPEST MOISTURE POOL DEPICTED TO ARRIVE BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL THEN SUBMIT TO A MORE MERIDIONAL
FLOW AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED POLAR JET DYNAMICS INVADE
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUBTROPICAL JET EXPECTED TO DEEPEN WITH A
JET STREAK /GREATER THAN 110 KNOTS/ OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY 23/0000Z. THIS AVAILABLE ENERGY MAY SUSTAIN THE
SHEARLINE AND THE BAROCLINICITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT...ALLOWING IT
TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THEREFORE...THE CURRENT THINKING WILL KEEP THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. EXACT TIMING OF SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED QPFS ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE...HOWEVER EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.

ONCE THE DISTURBED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EJECTS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD...DRIER...STABLE AIR WITH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN...HOWEVER SEAS WILL BE ROUGH AS THESE
SAME NORTHERLY WINDS DISTURB THE ATLANTIC WATERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN-FACING SHORELINES. AS SUCH...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE
HOISTED FOR THE NORTHERN FACING SHORELINES BY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NEW WEEK. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TJBQ AND
TJMZ LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ROUGH AND DANGEROUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AS A
DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY
MONDAY. THESE ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN...ATLANTIC-FACING SHORES AND ASSOCIATED NEAR AND OFF
SHORE ZONES. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE HOISTED ACROSS
THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND ADVISORIES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 PM AST FRI MAR 20 2009

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT LIMITED SHOWERS ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL CONDITIONS WITH ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE FA. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND AND DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
BOTH MODELS...GFS AND NAM...SUGGESTS A MORE WET WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPENDS OF SEVERAL FACTORS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT
BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY A JET STREAM ORIENTED WEST TO
EAST...WILL BECOME STRONGER JUST NORTH OF THE FA WITH WINDS UP TO
110 KNOTS. IF THIS SITUATION MATERIALIZES...THE ENERGY PROVIDED BY
THE JET STREAM WILL PUSH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OR SHEAR
LINE MORE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES AS A DRY AIR MASS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FLYING HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST TJSJ
12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A SOUTHEATERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...OF 15KNOTS
OR LESS...FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE
WEST AND MUCH STRONGER ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT SEAS TO BECOME ROUGH AND DANGEROUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATIONS AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE WEEKEND. THESE ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10
FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC-FACING SHORES AND
ASSOCIATED NEAR AND OFF SHORE ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
IN EFFECTS FOR MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE WEEKEND. STAY
TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND
ADVISORIES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST SAT MAR 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OVR THE WRN ATLC WILL DRAG A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE. SEVERAL DAYS OF WET WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
INDICATED BY SEVERAL MICROWAVE SENSORS WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.35 TO 1.6 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 90 TO 130% OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVR THE
WRN HALF OF PR IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

SUN LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS A SHEARLINE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE IS NOT THAT ALL IMPRESSIVE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK STEERING FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

BY SUN NIGHT...WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS
SHRAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PR. ACTUAL CDFNT LOOKS TO
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE...SO UNTIL THEN EXPECT SCT TO
NMRS SHRAS MAINLY OVR THE NORTHERN SLOPES AND NORTHEAST PR. DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED SO AM ANTICIPATING A
MARKED DECREASE IN SHRA CVRG.

HIGH PRES BUILDS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP DRY AIR TAKING
HOLD OVR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
TAF SITES AND THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TODAY.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL AFFECT THE
COASTAL AREAS BTWN 14-22Z...WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTION AND NORTH CENTRAL
COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THIS MORNING...BUT AFTERWARD...EXPECT A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT ACROSS THE ATLC TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND THEN DECREASE A BIT SUN AND SUN NIGHT BUT ONLY TO
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 10 FEET TUE AND REMAIN LIKE THAT THROUGH
THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST SUN MAR 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
HELP TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THE RISK OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUE
FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING ONE ON THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE TODAY AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH
DECENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD CVRG. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TOO. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IS NOT AS HIGH AS WITH LAST FROPA ON MARCH 6 WITH PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.5 AS OPPOSED TO 2.0 INCHES ON THAT DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEPTH OF MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO 600 MB.
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN EXPECTED
WEAK STEERING FLOW DONT THINK SITUATION WARRANTS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SHIFT AREAL
PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST COAST AND NORTHERN SLOPES. SEVERAL DAYS OF
WET WEATHER ARE EXPECTED PROBABLY THROUGH WED AS COLD FRONT WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
DEPART. BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.


&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF DAY...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VI...AND
TNCM AND TKPK. HOWEVER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
AFFECTING TJBQ AS A LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHES FROM THE MONA CHANNEL
WATERS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND. THIS AREA OF
PR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
AFTERWARD...BUT MAINLY FROM 16-22Z...EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR LIKELY TO RESULT IN A FEW TSRA`S...WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY AFFECT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME NNW AND THEN SHIFTING TO NNE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT TODAY BUT ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN
LATE MONDAY WITH 8-10 FT SEAS LIKELY BY TUESDAY. GLOBAL WAVE WATCH
ENSEMBLE INDICATING A SIG SWELL EVENT FOR NEXT FRI WITH 3.5+ METER
WAVES AT 13+ SECS AND A 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 4.0 METERS AND 50%
OF SWELL PERIOD OF GREATER THAN 15 SECS. THIS TO COINCIDE WITH A
NEW MOON WHICH IS ON MARCH 27 WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
656 AM AST MON MAR 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE FAVORING
DYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. A SUB-
TROPICAL JET MAX WITH 80 TO 90 KNOTS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF PR. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST
TODAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY JUST EAST OF
PUERTO RICO AT LEAST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...DRIER AIR
COMES IN FROM THE NORTH AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE
WEEK. HOWEVER...A SECOND AND WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECT TO
BE PUSHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY...BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR MASS AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND COOL TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WILL RESULT ON MODERATE TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH WILL
RESULT ON REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY COME FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL SET THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN CENTRAL SLOPES AND CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT FORECASTED TO SHIFT FROM THE SW TO NE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...WET DAYS AHEAD AT LEAST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS RURAL AS WELL AS URBAN
AREAS. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION...FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS STEEP TERRAINS
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AS RECENTLY SHOWERS HAVE LOOSEN THE SOIL
AND IN SOME AREAS...SOIL IS ALREADY SATURATED.

ATTENTION...LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS...ARE URGED TO STAY AWAY
FROM RIVERS OR SMALL STREAMS TODAY AND TOMORROW...WHILE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. SURGES OF WATERS COME FROM MILES
AWAY AND NO NECESSARILY NEEDS TO BE RAINING BELOW THE HEADWATER
FOR PEOPLE NOT TO BE AT DANGER.


&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. A FEW
PASSING SHOWER WILL HOWEVER BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
IN AND AROUND TJSJ...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z. LATER IN THE DAY...EXPECT INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 12 TO 16 KTS...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH A FEW TSTMS
BETWEEN 16-22Z. WHILE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PR AND TJPS...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ AS THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD OUTWARD LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL FOR LITTLE
WHILE...BEFORE THEY GO DOWN HILL ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROBABLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCA ARE IN EFFECT OR WILL BE IN
EFFECT LATER TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE THURSDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN SWELL EVENT FORECASTED FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY COULD LEAD US TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND EVEN A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO
AND LOCAL ISLANDS INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS OF NOW...WE
WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY NEW MODEL GUIDANCE PACKAGES AND CHECK
FOR THE CONSISTENCY OF THIS ANTICIPATED SWELL EVENT. STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST TUE MAR 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PREVIOUS FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA WITH FRAGMENTS ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF SAN JAN. THOSE
WILL PUSH SOUTH AND CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH EVEN MORE
DRYING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING OF THE
MID TO UPPER LAYERS AS BASE OF U/L TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY DRAMATIC CHANGE IN PATTERN
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...MAINLY DRY WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTERNOONS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST.

MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN ARE SWELLS COMING IN THIS FRIDAY. SEE
MARINE SECTION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON NOT
MATERIALIZING.


&&

.MARINE...STRONG GALE OVER THE NW ATLC IS CREATING STRONG FETCH
PROGGED TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH LOCAL COASTLINES FRIDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
PULSES SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10 FOOT SWELL AT AROUND 15 SECONDS.
SWELL OF THIS VERY LONG PERIOD NATURE AND DUE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE AREAS OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTLINES. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED WED OR THU
IF CONDITIONS PERSIST.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
930 AM AST WED MAR 25 2009

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS AND WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AND
ATLC WATERS TODAY AS SHEAR LINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IS
STRONGER THAN MODELS HAVE FORECAST. IN FACT...MAY EVEN BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE NERN CORNER OF LOCAL ATLC WATERS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY...PRIMARILY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO...AND PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO OVER SWRN PR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

BUOY 41403 ALSO SHOWING 20 KNOTS OF WIND NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...THESE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN ISLANDS AND
NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY 14Z
THROUGH 18Z OVER TIST...TJSJ AND MAYBE EVEN TJBQ. BY LATE
AFTERNOON MAY SEE SAME CONDITIONS WITH A SHOWER NEAR TJPS...BY
ABOUT 20Z.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 PM AST THU MAR 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES NEAR 31N AND 72W WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER CNTRL AMERICA WILL ALSO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE
TWO WX FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH BASE
REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY DATA SHOW FRONT IS BECOMING DIFFUSE JUST
SOUTH OF PR. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAS WORKED INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES NOW DOWN TO 0.87 INCHES PER LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FURTHER DRYING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH PWATS COMING DOWN TO 0.75 INCHES BY
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
QUICKLY OVR THE INTERIOR VALLEYS ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT
MORNING WITH MINT LIKELY IN THE 40S OVR NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS
LIKE ADJUNTAS AND AIBONITO.

BY SUN MORNING...GFS/NAM MODELS AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT TRADE SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
OTHER THAN THESE EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVR THE EAST...WX PATTERN
NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TAKING FULL
CONTROL OF THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER THE EXTREME SWRN CORNER OF
PR THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN NEXT 6 HOURS. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS...PROBABLY IN THE WESTERN VC ONLY. EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO BE DONE BY 21Z. OTHERWISE...VFR EVERYWHERE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS FCST TO PEAK TOMORROW MORNING AT 3.0 METERS AT
AROUND 15 SECS. STILL SOME CONCERN FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG IMMEDIATE LOW-LYING COASTLINES AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
TOMORROW MORNING WHICH IS AT 9:11 AM. WHETHER THERE IS COASTAL
FLOODING OR NOT...LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF NEARLY 20 FEET ARE
LIKELY ALONG LOCAL REEFS AND BEACHES. GIVEN THAT ONLY MINOR ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED AT BEST...NO COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST FRI MAR 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING HIGH SURF EVENT. FOR MORE
DETAILS PLEASE SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

ATMOSPHERICALLY SPEAKING...NOT MUCH GOING ON NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN/SW ATLC KEEPING
STABLE...BEAUTIFUL WEATHER OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
CHILLY OVERNIGHT...THROUGHOUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ESPECIALLY AS
DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE LOWS IN THE LOW 50S OVER THE HIGHEST VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41403 HAS BEEN SHOWING 15 SECOND SWELL AT 12 OR SO
FEET FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS COUPLED WITH LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH
COAST THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY. THE NATURE OF SWELL ENERGY AT THIS VERY
LONG WAVE LENGTH WILL PRODUCE EXTREME RIP CURRENT DANGER AND
BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEEDING THE NORMAL WINTER SWELL EVENTS FOR
PR AND THE USVI. BOATERS AND SWIMMERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO STAY
AWAY FROM THE SURF ZONE...ESPECIALLY OVER ROCKY BEACHES OR BEACHES
WITH STEEP FEATURES AT LEAST UNTIL LATE DAY TOMORROW.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
144 PM AST SAT MAR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE WILL BE THE RULE NEXT 7 DAYS.
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND DOMINATES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS
MORNING. BUOY DATA SHOWS SWELL HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DROPPING
THE LAST 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SWELL PERIOD REMAINS HIGH AT 14
SECONDS. WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO DISCONTINUE THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY EARLY TOMORROW...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFTS MONITOR DATA IN
ORDER TO MAKE THAT DECISION. UNTIL THEN...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST IN THE SURF ZONE. BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET ARE
STILL POSSIBLE...WITH VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT DANGER.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN MAR 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE GENERAL PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DOES NOT GIVE WAY UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY. THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE LIES NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL
AMERICA TO JAMAICA TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. LATE THIS WEEK IT
SHIFTS WEST AND ALLOWS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND MOVES LITTLE UNTIL A TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THERE. THE HIGH THAT FOLLOWS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ALONG
40 NORTH LATITUDE...WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA...AND WILL NOT
ENHANCE THE GRADIENTS AS MUCH AS PRIOR HIGHS HAVE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWERS FELL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FELL OVER THE ATLANTIC...JUST BRUSHING
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL AGAIN
GIVE WAY TO SUNNY OR AT LEAST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY.
WE GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE OF VARYING
STRENGTHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. STILL THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MIGRATING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS ABOVE ZERO...BUT
WILL NOT YIELD MUCH APPRECIABLE RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED
ABOVE 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS
AND THE NAM SHOW SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ON TUESDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST GROWS DURING THE WEEK AND IS ENHANCED BY
AN AREA OF MOISTURE THAT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER ON THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER THE NAM SEEMS
TO BASE ITS HIGH POPS ON A WESTWARD-MOVING WAVE THAT IT SHOWS
MOVING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE WAVES APPEARS TO BE SPURIOUS AND WILL DISCOUNT IT.

HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. BUOY 41043 SHOWS ONLY 6 FOOT
SWELL AND 7 FOOT SEAS...BOTH OF WHICH ARE DIMINISHING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH MARCH 31.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ
DURING THE DAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISH IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH APRIL 2...AND SHOW A
GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CARIBBEAN AFTER TODAY. WINDS
DIMINISH A LITTLE EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN HOLD STEADY AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS. A NEW LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN FROM THE NORTH WILL
ENTER THE AREA THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH BUT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
AND SO WILL NOT AFFECT SEAS VERY MUCH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST MON MAR 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. A COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA..NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
IS CURRENTLY DOMINATE BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT LOCATED THIS MORNING EAST
OF THE U.S...WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...AND WILL DISSIPATED WELL
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MID WEEK. DUE TO THIS SCENARIO...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX EVEN MORE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AN
AREA OF MOISTURE NEAR 55W THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVES WESTWARD
AND AFFECTS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERWARD...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. NAM12 AND GFS360 COMPUTER MODELS AGREE IN THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...NAM12 MODEL IS FORECASTING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN
THE WINDS...WHICH...IF IS VERIFY...WILL PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY.
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ
DURING THE DAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY UP THROUGH 12 THOUSAND
FEET AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST FROM 12 TO 30 THOUSAND FEET. AFTER
30/16Z SHOWERS AT TJMZ ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 30/22Z. TONIGHT
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL
BUT TJMZ AND TJPS BEFORE 31/12Z. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THIS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE COMMON IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER 31/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...ALL COASTAL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED SINCE EARLIER
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD USE CAUTION ACROSS
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS 18 KNOT WINDS AND 6 FOOT SEAS OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THESE
AREAS.