Florida Weather

[jinftl]

Yesterday's front is heading north as a warm front....dewpts have jumped far south already.

Dewpoint at 8am this morning in Miami was 55 deg...as of 6pm it is up to 68 deg!

Per latest NWS Miami Discussion

DISCUSSION...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED IN RECENT DAYS.
HOWEVER...THIS RELIEF FROM WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
SOON...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...INDICATIVE
OF WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS OCCURRING JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND SUGGESTIVE OF FACT THAT SUNDAY EVENING`S
COLD FRONT WILL SOON BE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT.

[gatorcane]

Another great discussion from our friends at NWS Miami:

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
[Printable]

Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXUS62 KMFL 310109
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
909 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2009

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS, OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE ON A LINE FROM THE
NORTHERN TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND TO KEY LARGO AND EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS ALL A
RESULT FROM FRONT HAVING BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
THEN SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH RETURN
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
INDICATE THIS TO BE HAPPENING JUST YET. HENCE, ANOTHER REASON TO
PLACE THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND NOT QUITE TO THE PENINSULA. AT
ANY RATE, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUESTION OF THE EVENING IS
JUST HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE GENERATED BY THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MARCH NORTHWARD, BUT WHERE THEY DIFFER IS THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING BY 06Z WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT AFT 06Z WITH EVEN ISOLATED TSRA. THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE ONLY SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONSEQUENTLY
LESSER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WRF 21Z RUN ONLY SHOWS CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF AND REMAINS OVER THE WATER WITH
ONLY A FEW SHRA MAYBE TOUCHING THE SW CST IN THE VICINITY OF
NAPLES. AT ANY RATE, GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGY OF LATE NIGHT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE MAINLAND IN THE WINTER/EARLY SPRING
MONTHS WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CURRENT
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS, WILL GO MORE IN LINE WITH THE WRF/NAM
SOLUTIONS AND TAKE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER BUT LEAVE SCATTERED SHRA
IN THE FORECAST AND MAYBE ISOLATE THUNDER OVER THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THAT BOTH THE 00Z MFL AND EYW
SOUNDINGS SHOW SMALL SUBSIDENCE CAPS STILL AT AROUND 2-3K FEET AND
ANOTHER AT AROUND 15K FEET. THERE IS SOME CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA, BUT THIS NO DOUBT SOMEWHAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING OF THEIR LANDMASS AND JUST HOW
FAR THIS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE WATER IS DEBATABLE. AFTER THIS
MOUTHFUL, ALL OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

[jinftl]

Not sure if a new met is writing recent discussions from the NWS Miami, but the level of technical analysis and detail they have been putting out in these discussions really seems to have been 'taken up a notch' as of late....it is very interesting and informative to get even a glimpse into the level of detail and analysis that goes into every forecast we get. Also been a challenge to get a handle of all the terms and concepts ...definitely taken a few re-reads for amateurs like myself...but that is how we learn, even if only bits and pieces!

Got a chuckle on how the last discussion was closed...."AFTER THIS
MOUTHFUL, ALL OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE."

Another great discussion from our friends at NWS Miami:

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
[Printable]

Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXUS62 KMFL 310109
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
909 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2009

.UPDATE...ALTHOUGH VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS, OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE ON A LINE FROM THE
NORTHERN TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND TO KEY LARGO AND EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS ALL A
RESULT FROM FRONT HAVING BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
THEN SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH RETURN
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT
INDICATE THIS TO BE HAPPENING JUST YET. HENCE, ANOTHER REASON TO
PLACE THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND NOT QUITE TO THE PENINSULA. AT
ANY RATE, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE QUESTION OF THE EVENING IS
JUST HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE GENERATED BY THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MARCH NORTHWARD, BUT WHERE THEY DIFFER IS THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING BY 06Z WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT AFT 06Z WITH EVEN ISOLATED TSRA. THE NAM IS NOT NEARLY AS
AGGRESSIVE ONLY SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CONSEQUENTLY
LESSER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WRF 21Z RUN ONLY SHOWS CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SE GULF AND REMAINS OVER THE WATER WITH
ONLY A FEW SHRA MAYBE TOUCHING THE SW CST IN THE VICINITY OF
NAPLES. AT ANY RATE, GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGY OF LATE NIGHT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE MAINLAND IN THE WINTER/EARLY SPRING
MONTHS WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CURRENT
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS, WILL GO MORE IN LINE WITH THE WRF/NAM
SOLUTIONS AND TAKE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER BUT LEAVE SCATTERED SHRA
IN THE FORECAST AND MAYBE ISOLATE THUNDER OVER THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THAT BOTH THE 00Z MFL AND EYW
SOUNDINGS SHOW SMALL SUBSIDENCE CAPS STILL AT AROUND 2-3K FEET AND
ANOTHER AT AROUND 15K FEET. THERE IS SOME CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA, BUT THIS NO DOUBT SOMEWHAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING OF THEIR LANDMASS AND JUST HOW
FAR THIS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE WATER IS DEBATABLE. AFTER THIS
MOUTHFUL, ALL OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.

[gatorcane]

Got a chuckle on how the last discussion was closed...."AFTER THIS
MOUTHFUL, ALL OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE."

Yes I got a chuckle out of that line also. But as a weather enthusiast, I am loving these technical explanations.

I'm watching the front slowly making its move northward. I'm curious how much rain results from it.

[jinftl]

Sounds like some areas could end with more rain on this pass of the front...this time as a warm front...than when it passed through on Sunday as cold front. Not getting a clear sense on how widespread or scatterd such rain may be though.


THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH TUESDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY

Got a chuckle on how the last discussion was closed...."AFTER THIS
MOUTHFUL, ALL OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE."

Yes I got a chuckle out of that line also. But as a weather enthusiast, I am loving these technical explanations.

I'm watching the front slowly makings it move northward. I'm curious how much rain results from it.

[boca]

The front is quite diffused and I don't really antisipate much out of it as it moves north. The 90 degree days will be a reality this week.

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

Toasty day...heat indices around 90 in se fl metro areas at noon!

[HURAKAN]

HOT ... HOT ... HOT

[Evil Jeremy]

Intense but concentrated cells forming on the east coast of Palm Beach county and up:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[Evil Jeremy]

Very intense cells now along the south east coast and interior Broward. Flood warning already out for Palm Beach. Should be an interesting afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

FLOOD ADVISORY...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IN...
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 202 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR
TWO INCHES IN ONE HOUR. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION WAS ALONG STATE
ROAD 706 NORTHWEST OF JUPITER FARMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

[Evil Jeremy]

That small cell on the Broward/Palm Beach border is creating some very bad rain, and it does not look like it is moving.

[Evil Jeremy]

Not good.


TORNADO WARNING
FLC099-311945-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0001.090331T1912Z-090331T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
312 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PALM BEACH
GARDENS...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST.

THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PALM BEACH GARDENS...
NORTH PALM BEACH...
RIVIERA BEACH...
PORT OF PALM BEACH...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

SOUTH FLORIDA TORNADOES MAY AT TIMES BE SMALL AND NARROW BUT THEY ARE
STILL DANGEROUS. THEY CAN EASILY FLIP A VEHICLE OR TRAILER OR CAUSE
LARGE TREES TO FALL. TAKE COVER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 2677 8004 2678 8005 2676 8005 2672 8008
2683 8019 2689 8013 2683 8004 2683 8003
2683 8004 2681 8002 2679 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 321DEG 7KT 2683 8010

$$

GR

[Dave]

Here is the storm total doppler radar estimate on rainfall for this area...

[Dave]

This is the 1 hour doppler estimate (the one above is the storm total est..got them crossed so waited for the next 1 hr update as shown below).

[DESTRUCTION5]

I believe that im sitting just north of the Red in Tequesta and we got hammered..

[Dave]

West to the panhandle of Florida...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
302 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 256 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 16 MILES WEST OF
BLACKMAN...OR ABOUT 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BREWTON...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLACKMAN AND ESCAMBIA FARMS BY 325 PM CDT...

[Dave]

Date: Mar 31 153000 EDT
Type: HEAVY RAIN
City: PALM BEACH GARDENS
County: PALM BEACH
State: FL
Source: Trained Spotter
Details: ROADS FLOODED BETWEEN BEELINE AND 595. HAIL REPORTED NEAR PALM BEACH GARDENS. POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN BETWEEN LILAC AND MILITARY TRAIL. TREES DOWN IN INTERSECTION.