Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1132 AM AST TUE MAR 31 2009

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE
LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 700MB. PW VALUES WERE 1.26. MINOR
CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE MADE TO INCREASE POP AND SKY
COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND
VIEQUES. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TISX...TIST
WITH PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWED
MAINLY EAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 10K FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM AST TUE MAR 31 2009/

SYNOPSIS...LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MARINE
CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THE LAST 12 TO
24 HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE AND DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR SHOWS A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE EAST. THIS AREA...IS BRINGING WITH IT...CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. NAM12 MODEL AND SJU-GFS
COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING RH VALUES AS HIGH AS 100 PERCENT
BETWEEN 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...NAM12 06Z RUN CAME MORE
MOIST THAN THE 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS ALSO AGREE
IN THIS WET SCENARIO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. 06Z RUN NAM12
FORECAST PW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.80 IN...MEANWHILE 00Z SJU-GFS
RUN...1.67 IN. NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND LITTLE
CHANCES OF POP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED EARLY THIS
MORNING NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST
TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA AFTER FRIDAY. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME.

A NOTE OF INTEREST...THE MONTH OF MARCH...WHICH END TODAY...HAS
BEEN WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR SAN JUAN. THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE MONTH OF MARCH IS 2.05 INCHES...COMPARE TO 2.90 INCHES FOR MARCH
2009...AND THIS IS WITHOUT COUNTING THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR TODAY.

AVIATION...A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR AT
MOST TAF SITES TODAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATED...BETWEEN TIST AND
VIEQUES AT 31/10Z...THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO
AND TJBQ BY 01/04Z WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS LOWER CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. CLEARING AND DRYING WILL FOLLOW...APPROXIMATE TIMING...AFT
31/14Z TKPK...TNCM...AFT 31/21Z TIST...TISX...AFT 01/03Z TJSJ...TJPS
AND AFT 01/08Z TJBQ...TJMZ. IMPROVEMENT WILL ACCELERATE HOWEVER
AFTER SUNSET AS SOLAR DRIVEN CONVECTION FADES.

MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. NOAA WW III MODEL DOESN`T FORECAST ANY SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS EVENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 21
KNOTS OR LESS AND OVERALL SEAS OF LESS THAN 7 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN MANY AREAS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST WED APR 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ON THURSDAY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
BROAD RIDGE NOW IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH LITTLE EFFECT. A
SIMILAR SITUATION OCCURS ON THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT THE
TROUGH GROWS ONCE IT IS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAK TROUGH TRAVELS THROUGH AND DEVELOPS
INTO A REX BLOCK NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK PERTURBATION IS LEAVING THE AREA AND
MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND A HIGH
BUILDS BACK OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC KEEPING THE COLD FRONT WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SCENARIO REPEATS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND A HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE ENTIRE OCEAN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEARING AND DRYING HAVE BEGUN BEHIND THE LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION NOW ENTERING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ONLY RAIN SHOWERS
OVER LAND WERE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS WERE ALL WEST OF PATILLAS AND MANATI. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS DRY ABOVE 8900 FEET AND THIS WILL KEEP MOST CONVECTION CAPPED
AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. A
SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST BAND OF MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO 20 N 53.5 W MOVES WEST SLOWLY...BUT THE GFS SHOWS IT
SLOWING DOWN AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE GETTING THROUGH...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL HAVE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOST DAYS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHES A MINIMUM TONIGHT
AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES DECREASES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES GRADUALLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THICKNESSES.

MODELS DISAGREED BY 3 DEGREES ON HIGH FOR SJU TODAY...WITH THE NAM
BEING THE COOLEST AT 83. NOT SURE WHY THIS HAPPENED WITH
THICKNESSES UP AS HIGH AS ANYTIME LAST WEEK OR NEXT WEEK...MORE
SUN TODAY AND SOUTHEAST WINDS...SO LEFT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGH
OF 86 ALONE. WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A LITTLE
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NAM WAS OVER
FORECASTING THE WINDS WHICH WERE GIVEN AS 06021KT AT 01/18Z AND
THIS WAS WHAT WAS KEEPING THE LAND AREAS A LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY MIGHT
HAVE BEEN OTHERWISE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL ATLANTIC SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE MORE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN RISE SOME TILL SUNDAY DUE TO NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL.
CARIBBEAN SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH ALL SEAS FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TRADE WINDS REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST THU APR 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGES...AT LEAST PRIOR TO ECLIPSE...SHOWS A VERY GOOD
DIVERGENT FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EARLY PART OF THIS MORNING. FLOW BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY AT LOW LEVELS...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY EXPECTING
A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. GFS HAD A
GOOD HANDLE OF THE STRONG DOWNWARD ISENTROPIC FLOW THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND THE RESULT CAN BE SEEN WITH NOT A HINT OF A SHOWER IN
SIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS...WEAK SHORTWAVE ERODES A MID LEVEL RIDGE A BIT BEFORE A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD OF THE U.S.
LATE MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN
CARIB TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LOCAL AREA TO HAVE AT LEAST A BETTER
CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.

MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD WITH AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION WITH ENHANCEMENT BY THE PROXIMITY OF
THE JET TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A PEAK OF AROUND 6 FEET ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 PM AST FRI APR 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE WEST
ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY...AND RELAX THE SURFACE
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.MEANWHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED
STATES ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A PATCH
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A EASTERLY PERTURBATION NOW
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES. BASED ON LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
AND PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN...EXPECT THE EASTERLY TRADES TO TRANSPORT
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS TO THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE REST OF
THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES IN THE MEANTIME WILL WEAKEN AS
THE ATLANTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
OVER THE AREA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WEAKENS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST
TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED
PASSING SHRA MAY DEVELOP AROUND TKPK AND TNCM BETWEEN 23Z AND 04/01Z
AND THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS EASTERLY PERTURBATION MOVES SLOWLY
WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT PREVAILING EASTERLIES OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND
OVERALL SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECAUTIONARY
STATMENTS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
146 AM AST SAT APR 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER W CARIBBEAN
FOR THE 7 DAY FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP A LID" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">LID ON ANY CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM
OF LIGHT ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A DIURNALLY FORCED SHOWER OVER WESTERN PR. A WEAK LOW
LEVEL VORT WAVE OVER THE LEEWARDS NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTH
OF FORECAST AREA...BUT MAY CONTRIBUTE A BIT OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN PR TO SPARK SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SW PR SUNDAY AFT.
OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BEAUTIFUL 7 DAYS AHEAD.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS ARE IDEAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NO SWELL ENERGY
EXPECTED AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA EVERYWHERE.

[cycloneye]

A FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 AM AST SUN APR 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST...CONTRIBUTING TO A SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. EXPECTING THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO BE OVER EASTERN PR
THIS MORNING AND OVER CENTRAL TO SWRN PR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAIN. THIS EVENING TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OVER THE MONA CHANNEL TOWARDS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENABLING
DRIER AIR TO FILL BACK INTO THE REGION...DRYING THINGS OUT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARLY THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MID LAYER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER FLORIDA
AND INTO THE SW ATLC. GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
INTO HISPANIOLA BY MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT DONT THINK WILL MAKE IT AS
FAR EAST AS PR AS MID LAYER RIDGE NUDGES IT UP OVER THE AREA. NEXT
PERCEIVABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD BE AS LATE AS FRIDAY...AND THAT
DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE EITHER. MOSTLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ON AND OFF AGAIN MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS
/BKN030/ AND ACCOMPANIED RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AS A DISTURBANCE
PASSES EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE AREA. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY RAIN SHOWER THAT PASSES OVER A TAF SITE.


&&

.MARINE...EXCELLENT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENTS AND SEAS MAINLY LESS THAN 4 FEET NEAR
SHORE...AND NOT OVER 6 ANYWHERE.

[cycloneye]

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 060710
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 AM AST MON APR 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE PICS SHOW WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION BEING FORCED OVER THE
ISLANDS. MIMIC TPW IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE ENE...QUICKLY REPLACING ANY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
ABOUT A WEEKS WORTH OF DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS.

MID LAYER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...INHIBITING ANY SOUTHERN
MOVEMENT OF MID LATITUDE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS TO OUR NORTH. STRONG
CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AROUND THE 700 MB LAYER. EXPECTING ONLY
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY FORCED
REGIONS OF THE WEST AND W INTERIOR SECTION OF PR DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. OTHERWISE NO MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED NEXT 7 DAYS
AS BEAUTIFUL CARIBBEAN WEATHER CONTINUES.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24-HOURS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF AIRPORT IMPACT. EAST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY /BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS/ AT TJBQ BETWEEN 06/1400Z AND
06/2100Z...HOWEVER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH 600 MB ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...VERY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS ON TAP. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE BELOW 4 FEET IN MOST AREAS...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE COMING ON WED AS WEAK NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ENERGY BUMPS UP
SEAS A FEW FEET MAINLY OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS. BUT FOR THE
MOST PART...EXCELLENT CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST TUE APR 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME INTO/THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AT THAT TIME. RIDGE RE-BUILDS AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN HANGS ON INTO/THROUGH SATURDAY...
BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. IN GENERAL...MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT TENDS TO INCREASE
OVERALL BY THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA...BUT WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIMES OF LESS RIDGING AND INCREASED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST WED APR 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
THEN PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THE
RIDGE RE-BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN GENERALLY HANGS
ON INTO OR THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE RIDGE FLATTENS AND WEAKENS A
BIT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH LESS CAPPING...BETTER VENTILATION AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER
MOISTURE (AT LEAST IN BANDS AND PATCHES) DURING PART OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT AT THIS POINT...DO NOT
EXPECT A PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST THU APR 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE FIRST OF THESE FEATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
FA...TO RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. MID TO UPPER
RIDGE TENDS TO BUILD A BIT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
GENERALLY HANGS ON INTO OR THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE RIDGE
FLATTENS AND WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH LESS CAPPING...BETTER VENTILATION AND
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE (AT LEAST IN BANDS AND PATCHES) DURING
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AND PROBABLY TUESDAY...WOULD
EXPECT ANOTHER NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT AT THIS POINT...STILL DO
NOT EXPECT A PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF
PUERTO RICO`S LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR
PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND MODERATE SHOWERS BETWEEN TJMZ
AND TJBQ BETWEEN 08/18 AND 08/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THAT SAME TIME FRAME OVER THE HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE VICINITY OF THE USVI...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS BUT BRIEF MVFR NEAR TNCM AND TKPK DUE TO
CEILINGS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 AM AST FRI APR 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF NORTH OF PR OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS
LATE MON. MID-LVL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 00Z JSJ SOUNDING SHOW
THAT MOISTURE REMAINS DECENT WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS FOR
TODAY SO WOULD EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME CVRG AS YESTERDAY WITH THE
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ON SAT...MODELS NOW SHOW A SHARP
DROP IN MOISTURE WITH PWATS VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS A BIG FLIP FLOP FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

MOISTURE INCREASES FOR SUN AND MAXES OUT ON MON LEADING TO A
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...PRESENCE OF
MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH OVR THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN MID-LVL INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE RISK OF TSTMS.

MODELS INDICATE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF 60W BY TUE WITH RIDGE BUILDING
QUICKLY BEHIND IT ALONG WITH SHARP DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH WHICH IS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING IN PASSING
SHRA AND THEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE A BIT BRISK OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS UP
TO 20 KT. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT AND WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS RELAX A BIT NEX WEEK.

[Gustywind]

HI Luis, tkanks for these infos, glad to see that you're always there to keep us informed see you soon!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST SAT APR 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SFC HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF NORTH OF PR TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS LATE MON.
MID-LVL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN TO 1.1
INCHES (ALMOST HALF INCH LOWER THAN 24 HRS) ALONG WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. SOME CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE OVR THE SW SLOPES BUT
WITH LESS CVRG THAN YDAY.

MOISTURE INCREASES FOR SUN AND PEAKS ON MON AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROF GETS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AND HELPS INDUCE A SFC
TROUGH ACROSS WRN PR FOR MORE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY MON. TROF LIFTS
OUT TUE WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT WITH LIMITED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN AND MONA PASSAGE FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT. OTHERWISE...SEAS
5 FT OR LESS XCPT 2 TO 3 FT PROTECTED WATERS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 AM AST SUN APR 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN
CARIBBEAN UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. ALOFT...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF PR WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON TUE. MID-LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD BRIEFLY OVR THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEEP UPPER LVL TROF TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE NW ATLC LATE IN THE WEEK AND HELP PUSH A FRONTAL BDRY CLOSE
TO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LVL TROF WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE USVI/BVI
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT FOR SOME
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW PR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS
UNIMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.1
INCHES PER LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 80% OF
NORMAL. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT ON MON HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BACKED
SOMEWHAT FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN SO NOT EXPECTING AT MUCH ACTIVITY NOW
AS COMPARED TO YDAY.

TROF MOVES EAST ON TUE WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN. PWAT VALUES FCST TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW CLIMO SO NO SIG RAINS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER LVL TROF OVR THE NW ATLC DIGS PRETTY FAR
SOUTH AND HELPS BRING A FRONTAL BDRY CLOSE TO THE AREA ON SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS MAY AFFECT TJMZ FROM
1218Z/1221Z...WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 5 FT OR LESS XCPT 3 FT OR LESS IN PROTECTED WATERS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
351 AM AST MON APR 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE GOOD
CHANCES TO OBSERVE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
ONE OR TWO TSTORMS ACROSS PARTS SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE INTERACT WITH ISLAND EFFECTS
AND DAYTIME HEATING PROCESSES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...WHILE PLENTY SUNSHINE AND ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE THE
RULE OF THE DAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...IS FORECASTED BY THE GFS TO SLOWLY DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE TO SEVEN DAYS AND APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS OF NOW...THIS IS THE ONLY
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS PERIOD...OTHER THAN THE AFTERNOONS SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN P.R.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
XCPT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH VCSH.

[Gustywind]

Unstelled weather here in Guadeloupe...Numerous rains showers have persisted all the day, water water water and it's an euphemisma...very genearous amounts of water for us (after a moderate drought: good news for the flowers, trees...and the shape) but hope no more as Meteo-France is calling for an steady improvement this afternoon, no alert in tape too, let's enjoy this last easter day . What the weather like in San Juan Cycloneye? Hope all is ok...
Gustywind :

[Gustywind]

Hummm HUC what's the situation in Basse-Terre? Are you in a swimming-pool and let's play water-polo? or not... pretty "calm"?
Could you give me some infos from your location if you're at home or in vicinity of Basse-Terre i will be glad!
See you soon

[cycloneye]

The weather is fine here in San Juan,blue skies and temps in the mid 80s.Only the usual afternoon showers in interior PR.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

000
ASCA42 TJSJ 132009
RWRPR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST MON APR 13 2009

PRZ001-004-132100-
PUERTO RICO

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM   MOSUNNY   82  70  65 E16G24    29.99F
PONCE          MOSUNNY   84  72  65 SE12      29.96S
MAYAGUEZ       MOSUNNY   88  73  62 W3        29.97  HX  96


[Gustywind]

The weather is fine here in San Juan,blue skies and temps in the mid 80s.Only the usual afternoon showers in interior PR.

OK that's great, good news...glad to see that Luis and tkanks for the link (synopsis) at San Juan
Things have calm down here, a bit grey with numerous clouds but the rain has stopped significantly and i'm happy