Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[wxman57]

SST's have risen 8-9 degrees in a little more than a week here.

The cool water off the west coast of Florida was very shallow, caused by that period of below-normal temperatures. Doesn't take long to modify-out. I was in St. Petersburg March 2-5 for the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. Nearly froze my butt off.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Finally the water temperatures are warming after a really cold
water temperature winter

[Sihara]

The cool water off the west coast of Florida was very shallow, caused by that period of below-normal temperatures. Doesn't take long to modify-out. I was in St. Petersburg March 2-5 for the Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. Nearly froze my butt off.

Hehe - yeah, hope you brought a parka

But seriously, we did have a cool winter, running below normal most of the time. No temps below 35 where I live, but frost? Yikes. Back in November, we were griping that it already felt like January - the first couple of days in March, we're still thinking it felt like January (that's St. Pete-style January, not the up-north kind). A kinda long January, wouldn'tcha think? Anyway, we're still running a degree or so below normal (per NWS) but it felt plenty warm today, and I even got my first sunburn of the year.

I would guess it was enough to keep the SSTS below normal, but they'll heat up pretty quickly.

[jinftl]

I know we are dealing with shallow water in parts of the Gulf that can heat or cool quickly...but that said, this has to be one of the most dramatic one week change in sea temps that i have seen...esp off the west coast of florida....some areas have warmed 6-10 deg F in the last week.

Reminds us of one thing...no matter what the winter has been like in terms of cold fronts passing through the Gulf, come June 1....the water will be plenty warm enough to support tropical development. It will be the other factors such as sheer, dry air, etc that will be the make-it-or-break-it factors...not sst.

[Sihara]

I know we are dealing with shallow water in parts of the Gulf that can heat or cool quickly...but that said, this has to be one of the most dramatic one week change in sea temps that i have seen...esp off the west coast of florida....some areas have warmed 6-10 deg F in the last week.

Reminds us of one thing...no matter what the winter has been like in terms of cold fronts passing through the Gulf, come June 1....the water will be plenty warm enough to support tropical development. It will be the other factors such as sheer, dry air, etc that will be the make-it-or-break-it factors...not sst.

Wouldn't shear be lessened by the presence of La Niña? Seems to increase in strong El Niño years but would that mean the reverse is true as well?

[RL3AO]

Wouldn't shear be lessened by the presence of La Niña? Seems to increase in strong El Niño years but would that mean the reverse is true as well?

Its closer to a neutral ENSO than a La Nina. In fact, some of the models are hinting at a weak El Nino by the summer.

[jinftl]

From a couple of weeks back...and it is from JB, but that said, he does mention a week el nino for this upcoming season...and throws out a reference or 2 to the 2004 season....for floridians, i hope not even a portion of that season relives itself this year....

JB notes that if waters are cooler in the eastern atlantic, systems tend to develop further west....not a good scenario for the caribbean and u.s. In relation to el nino/la nina and sea surface temps and anomalies, he wrotes:


SOME THINGS I AM PONDERING ABOUT THE UPCOMING HURRICANE SEASON

1) Weak El Nino likely to develop mid and late season:

The weak La Nina that did return appears to be on its last leg. The development of the sudden stratospheric warming in mid-January was very similar to an occurrence in 1969, and somewhat similar to an occurrence in the spring of 1976, both of which were followed by El Ninos the following hurricane season into the winter. My take is that this event is a reaction to the overall conditions of the past couple of years (The La Nina event itself and the cooling PDO vs the warm AMO), and because of that, the reaction that is coming is to reverse to a weak El Nino. As of this writing, I see none of the tell-tale signs of a strong El Nino, such as enhanced volcanic activity in the tropical and subtropical regions of the earth, and so the forecast is simply that once the SOI goes to neutral or negative, it takes away the chance of the La Nina continued to be driven by atmospheric feed back. The current five-day stretch of -5 is occurring much earlier than last year (in the summer) and I feel that this is the sign that this has run its course. Because the El Nino is reactive, not proactive, as we saw in '97-'98, the amount of reduction in activity from this factor alone is small. In fact the hurricane seasons of 1969, 2002 and 2004 all were major headache years for the United States, and they were El Nino years, so by itself, this factor is only a minor hindrance.

2) Cooler water temps across deep tropics than last year Forecasts for cooler waters in the tropical breeding grounds is a negative also. This means another year where storms may be reaching intensity in the western, not eastern, Atlantic, more specifically even tighter into the coast than last year. In addition because of what is likely to be a more eastward and northward shift of tracks, due to a summer pattern that may develop a western U.S. ridge (there is some hint to the overall pattern of the summer of 2004 and 1976), one bets on much less congregation of tracks and later development of storms relative to longitude

Meanwhile, first 26C or 78F water making an appearance in part of Gulf (around Loop Current) and off SE FL coast....

[cycloneye]

The latest update in the MDR area shows a bit warming trend in the central Tropical Atlantic but cool Eastern Atlantic.If this persist a few months ahead,waves that come off Africa may develop further west rather than in the Eastern Atlantic.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nice circulation off the east coast of Florida! If ONLY this were hurricane
season then there would be hope for a minimal tropical storm
to bring some rain to me...ssts still too cold and wind
shear still too high...

[jinftl]

Here comes the warm water! Water temps off the coast of se fl and the keys are now in the upper 70's to around 80 in parts of the Keys.

[gatorcane]

SSTs are largely above normal across the entire Atlantic basin. I've been monitoring them over the past couple of months and it seems they keep trending towards above normal. That coupled with la nina moving to neutral may mean a rather active season.

[jinftl]

Water temps continue to warm, particularly in the Caribbean Sea into the extreme southeast GoM and around the FL Keys and South Florida



Compared to the is time last year, temps are generally warmer across the tropical atlantic west of approx 35W longitude through the Central Caribbean Sea. The area from 40W to 60W has an expanse of 24C to 26C deg water several degrees further north than this time last year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't expect much warming for the Northwestern Gulf the next few days with the Super Arctic Front with cool temps and bone dry dew points having swept all the way to the Yucatan.

[jinftl]

Only the Upper TX coast is holding on to 'chilly' water temps (under 68F)....and that will be very short-lived i am sure...Tampa Bay is approaching the upper 70s...and waters around the Cayman Islands are turning into bathwater (82F-84F).

[cycloneye]

[jinftl]

Alot of talk about lower SSTs possibly being a factor in reducing the number of storms forecast this year....but once you get west of the Cape Verde Islands, the tropical Atlantic is warmer than it was same time last year...not seeing a cold-looking tropical atlantic. Perhaps if the water stays cooler than normal the further east you go towards Africa, all that could spell is less fish storms and waves developing further west.

Atlantic Basin water temps on 4/17/09:



Compared to same date last year:

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest update from Reynolds.With the exception of the far Eastern Atlantic,where the anomalies are running 2-3 degrees below average,the rest of the Atlantic looks on average,and in some areas above average like the MDR west of 40w and the North Central Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

The SSTs are above normal mostly in the middle lattitudes of the norther Atlantic. If the expected El Nino kicks in for the peak of the season we could be looking at quite a bit of fish storms recurving betwen 50W and 60W as they may deepen more quickly than usual and hence find the weakness quicker.

It's obviously too early to say. Here would be an analog year for the above scenario:

A few weak systems made it inland in far North North America.
Could we be so lucky?

[jinftl]

What will be key is when/if el nino conditions take hold during the season....not seeing any forecasts for a 'strong' el nino even (a la 1997). If it kicks in mid-to-late season, an analog year could very well end up being 2004....a season with a weak el nino mid-to-late season



Despite the existence of a weak El Nino beginning in August 2004, the lack of a (Pacific) basin-wide structure to the El Niño led to the delayed onset of Atlantic teleconnections, permitting the above average activity to continue through the season.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... s-overview

[cycloneye]

I dont like this setup if it mantains when August and September arrive because as waves move out of Africa and stay as waves while they move thru those cool waters,they for sure will pop up when they reach the warmer waters west of 40w and then the Eastern Caribbean islands may have possible threats.