Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[Aric Dunn]

both the UKMET and GFS have it as a tropical system (warm core) as of the 12z run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

the way the models are behaving do you think this could reach min. cat.1 cane aric?????

unlikely.. but these days you never know.. lol
just watching over the next day and see how these features evlove..

[KatDaddy]

Welcome to the 2009 Hurricane Season everyone. We are back to business.

[lester]

this (possibly) is the third straight early start of the season: 07,08,and (maybe) 09...

[NEXRAD]

18Z NAM is showing an elongated low forming late Monday before consolidating into a single surface circulation in vicinity of the Lower Keys Tuesday night. That scenario looks reasonable.

- Jay

[Ivanhater]

18Z NAM is showing an elongated low forming late Monday before consolidating into a single surface circulation in vicinity of the Lower Keys Tuesday night. That scenario looks reasonable.

- Jay

Yeah, it looks like the low that moves off the eastcoast of Florida dissipates as the old frontal low takes over in the Gulf...

[Evil Jeremy]

I am going to see Star Trek right now, but once I am back, I am officially in hurricane season mode lol. Welcome back everyone, its going to be a long summer.

[hurricanefloyd5]

here is what accuweather is saying:

Sub-Tropical Low Could be Named this Week

SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD HIT FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST WITH HEAVY RAINS THIS WEEK...


The system near Cuba this morning will move north and be along the Florida coast by Tuesday. With the high to the north and the system strengthening, the east coast of Florida from NASA space center north to Charleston, SC can expect at least gale force winds if not tropical storm force winds.

The issue becomes, will this system become a named system. My guess is yes, it will become a named system, but maybe not a true tropical system. NHC has the category of sub-tropical storm, which they can name. Below is the definition from the NHC site.. In any case, Florida and parts of the Southeast are going to go from very dry weather to very wet weather with some places having 4-8 inches of rain this week.

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.

[Lowpressure]

We will take everything rain wise we can get in the southeast.

[jinftl]

Not to mention a roller coaster summer (and spring apparently....and probably into autumn as well)...full of 'season cancels', 'the sky is falling', acronymn-slinging galore (SAL, ENSO, SOI, etc)...and that could all be from me! This system (potential) is like spring training....

I am going to see Star Trek right now, but once I am back, I am officially in hurricane season mode lol. Welcome back everyone, its going to be a long summer.

[Aric Dunn]

Miami AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE DILEMMA CONTINUES AS TO JUST WHAT KIND OF
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, A MID LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT THEY ALL CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF
SUCH FEATURES. CURRENTLY, A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITH THE MODELS INITIALIZING THIS QUITE
WELL. LOOKING AT SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA WILL GET ABSORBED AND IT IS
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT THE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
FROM WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE FASTEST IN ITS DEVELOPMENT AND THE
ECMWF THE FARTHEST TO THE WEST. ONE THING IS NEARLY CERTAIN, NO
MATTER WHERE THE MID/SURFACE LOWS END UP BEING LOCATED, SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DUE TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MAV
GUIDANCE IN POPS FOR THE PAST FEW PERIODS. BUT CONSIDERING THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY, IS THIS TREND GOING
TO END WITH THIS CYCLE? ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, IT STILL REMAINS A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR RAINFALL TOTALS NOT TO
MENTION THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE OTHER FACTOR IS
THE WIND DIRECTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL TURNS OUT MORE
CORRECT, THE GFS AND NAM FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
180 DEGREES APART JUST DUE TO THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. SO IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS GO
STATUS QUO AND CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[brunota2003]

Season cancel!!!

[Pearl River]

New Orleans AFD this afternoon:

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THIS FEATURE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO APPEAR
WHEN LOOKING AT THE SURFACE REFLECTION.

WHILE ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS FEATURE...THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS FORECASTS THE LOW TO
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THEN TAKE A 90 DEGREE
WESTWARD TURN ACROSS THE PENINSULA SOUTH OF DAYTONA AND THEN INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. IT THEN CONTINUES TO
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL MOVING INLAND AROUND THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER SOME TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW AROUND THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND KEEPS IT ON A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF...MOVING INLAND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

BOTH MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MEANDER SLOWLY AROUND THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN BOTH SCENARIOS...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WITH THAT SAID...
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE PATH OF THE LOW COULD RESULT IN A LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE FARTHER WEST THIS
LOW TRACKS...THE MORE THREAT THERE IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. DEPENDING ON THE PATH THAT THE LOW
TAKES...WE COULD SEE A LONG DURATION OF PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY WINDS RESULTING IN A PILE UP OF
WATER ALONG SHORELINES THAT ARE PERPENDICULAR TO THE FLOW.

FUTURE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE TIMING...INTENSITY...
AND PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.

[hurricanefloyd5]

here is something from my weather office on this developing storm system.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK...

TONIGHT/MONDAY...SEA BREEZE NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL HAVE A LITTLE
TOUGHER TIME MOVING INLAND WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
THIS AREA. SHOULD THEREFORE STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...INCLUDING VOLUSIA WHERE
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR TO JUST
AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE NORTH END OF THE CWA LATE
OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING AND WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER THE AREA
EARLIER ON IN THE DAY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE MENTION SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES WITH 60-70 POPS. STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE
NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S FARTHER SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER/NEAR THE STATE...EVENTUALLY FORCING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BENEATH OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF UPPER
REFLECTION. EVOLUTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW. AS HEIGHTS LOWER...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE...REACHING
1.5-1.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION. THICK MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL RESTRICT TEMP RISE...HOLDING MAXS AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREE
BELOW CLIMO...AND LIMITING INSTABILITY. SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF PRECIP...POSSIBLY QUITE BENEFICIAL IN SOME SPOTS.
HOWEVER...ACCURATE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS STILL DIFFICULT UNTIL LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF
DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE RELATIVE TO ECFL BEGINS MORE CERTAIN. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGION-WIDE COVERAGE OF 50-60 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAY TUNED.

THU-SUN...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF UPPER LOW AND BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENDING UP IN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING SLOWLY AWAY DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS.

[hurricanefloyd5]

here is something from my weather office on this developing storm system.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK...

TONIGHT/MONDAY...SEA BREEZE NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL HAVE A LITTLE
TOUGHER TIME MOVING INLAND WITH A MORE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
THIS AREA. SHOULD THEREFORE STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...INCLUDING VOLUSIA WHERE
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR TO JUST
AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE NORTH END OF THE CWA LATE
OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING AND WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER THE AREA
EARLIER ON IN THE DAY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL THEREFORE MENTION SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONES WITH 60-70 POPS. STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE
MAY OCCUR HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE
NORTH TO LOW/MID 80S FARTHER SOUTH.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER/NEAR THE STATE...EVENTUALLY FORCING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BENEATH OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF UPPER
REFLECTION. EVOLUTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW. AS HEIGHTS LOWER...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE...REACHING
1.5-1.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION. THICK MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL RESTRICT TEMP RISE...HOLDING MAXS AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREE
BELOW CLIMO...AND LIMITING INSTABILITY. SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF PRECIP...POSSIBLY QUITE BENEFICIAL IN SOME SPOTS.
HOWEVER...ACCURATE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS STILL DIFFICULT UNTIL LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF
DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE RELATIVE TO ECFL BEGINS MORE CERTAIN. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGION-WIDE COVERAGE OF 50-60 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAY TUNED.

THU-SUN...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF UPPER LOW AND BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENDING UP IN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING SLOWLY AWAY DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS.

I hope this helps someone out here

[AdamFirst]

Melbourne, FL AFD this afternoon...certain models have the potential center of circulation entering around the Space Coast:

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER/NEAR THE STATE...EVENTUALLY FORCING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BENEATH OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF UPPER
REFLECTION. EVOLUTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW. AS HEIGHTS LOWER...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE...REACHING
1.5-1.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION. THICK MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL RESTRICT TEMP RISE...HOLDING MAXS AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREE
BELOW CLIMO...AND LIMITING INSTABILITY. SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF PRECIP...POSSIBLY QUITE BENEFICIAL IN SOME SPOTS.
HOWEVER...ACCURATE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS STILL DIFFICULT UNTIL LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF
DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE RELATIVE TO ECFL BEGINS MORE CERTAIN. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGION-WIDE COVERAGE OF 50-60 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAY TUNED.

THU-SUN...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF UPPER LOW AND BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENDING UP IN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING SLOWLY AWAY DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS.

EDIT: once again beaten to the punch. I'm too slow for this.

[jlauderdal]

Miami AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE DILEMMA CONTINUES AS TO JUST WHAT KIND OF
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, A MID LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT THEY ALL CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF
SUCH FEATURES. CURRENTLY, A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITH THE MODELS INITIALIZING THIS QUITE
WELL. LOOKING AT SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA WILL GET ABSORBED AND IT IS
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT THE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
FROM WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE FASTEST IN ITS DEVELOPMENT AND THE
ECMWF THE FARTHEST TO THE WEST. ONE THING IS NEARLY CERTAIN, NO
MATTER WHERE THE MID/SURFACE LOWS END UP BEING LOCATED, SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DUE TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MAV
GUIDANCE IN POPS FOR THE PAST FEW PERIODS. BUT CONSIDERING THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY, IS THIS TREND GOING
TO END WITH THIS CYCLE? ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, IT STILL REMAINS A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR RAINFALL TOTALS NOT TO
MENTION THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE OTHER FACTOR IS
THE WIND DIRECTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL TURNS OUT MORE
CORRECT, THE GFS AND NAM FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
180 DEGREES APART JUST DUE TO THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. SO IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS GO
STATUS QUO AND CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

when in doubt do nothing which is what they did and makes sense to me, they are covered in the forecast for now

[hurricanefloyd5]

Melbourne, FL AFD this afternoon...certain models have the potential center of circulation entering around the Space Coast:

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER/NEAR THE STATE...EVENTUALLY FORCING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BENEATH OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF UPPER
REFLECTION. EVOLUTION OF QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP LAYERED SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW. AS HEIGHTS LOWER...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL INCREASE...REACHING
1.5-1.8 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION. THICK MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WILL RESTRICT TEMP RISE...HOLDING MAXS AT LEAST 5-10 DEGREE
BELOW CLIMO...AND LIMITING INSTABILITY. SYSTEM LIKELY TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF PRECIP...POSSIBLY QUITE BENEFICIAL IN SOME SPOTS.
HOWEVER...ACCURATE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/AMOUNTS STILL DIFFICULT UNTIL LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF
DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE RELATIVE TO ECFL BEGINS MORE CERTAIN. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH REGION-WIDE COVERAGE OF 50-60 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STAY TUNED.

THU-SUN...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF UPPER LOW AND BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENDING UP IN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING SLOWLY AWAY DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TOWARD THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN STORMS.

EDIT: once again beaten to the punch. I'm too slow for this.

if this pans out for florida then would was see wind adv.,highwind adv., or Tropical Storm warnings???????

[brunota2003]

It depends. Right now it would be a wind advisory (if the winds were forecast to get to WA criteria). TS Warnings won't come out until there is an actual named system out there.

[hurricanefloyd5]

It depends. Right now it would be a wind advisory (if the winds were forecast to get to WA criteria). TS Warnings won't come out until there is an actual named system out there.

ok thank you very much for that. I was thinking that too but just wanted to make sure and I want everyone to pray that this storm dosen't wash out my SoftBall game this weekend. This storm could mess my game up this friday night!!!!!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

Miami AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...THE DILEMMA CONTINUES AS TO JUST WHAT KIND OF
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES, A MID LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE TROUGH WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST
BUT THEY ALL CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AS TO LOCATION AND TIMING OF
SUCH FEATURES. CURRENTLY, A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITH THE MODELS INITIALIZING THIS QUITE
WELL. LOOKING AT SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS, THERE ALSO APPEARS
TO BE A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA WILL GET ABSORBED AND IT IS
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT THE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
FROM WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE FASTEST IN ITS DEVELOPMENT AND THE
ECMWF THE FARTHEST TO THE WEST. ONE THING IS NEARLY CERTAIN, NO
MATTER WHERE THE MID/SURFACE LOWS END UP BEING LOCATED, SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DUE TO THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT MET GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OUTPERFORMING MAV
GUIDANCE IN POPS FOR THE PAST FEW PERIODS. BUT CONSIDERING THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY, IS THIS TREND GOING
TO END WITH THIS CYCLE? ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, IT STILL REMAINS A
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR RAINFALL TOTALS NOT TO
MENTION THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. THE OTHER FACTOR IS
THE WIND DIRECTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL TURNS OUT MORE
CORRECT, THE GFS AND NAM FOR LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
180 DEGREES APART JUST DUE TO THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. SO IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS GO
STATUS QUO AND CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

when in doubt do nothing which is what they did and makes sense to me, they are covered in the forecast for now

read and re read at anytime through the rest of the day.. best analysis covers pretty much everything