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gatorcane wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:this is not going to the NE
it should swing back to the west around the northern edge of the GOM system
The GFS could have it correct, NE into an area about a couple of hundred miles north of the Bahamas and then a bend back to the west in about 5 days from now, but not becoming a depression at any point during this time.
Pearl River wrote:527
WHXX01 KWBC 181906
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1906 UTC MON MAY 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090518 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090518 1800 090519 0600 090519 1800 090520 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.9N 75.8W 23.6N 76.0W 25.6N 76.2W 27.0N 77.2W
BAMD 21.9N 75.8W 24.1N 74.7W 26.9N 75.1W 29.1N 76.7W
BAMM 21.9N 75.8W 23.9N 75.3W 26.4N 75.2W 28.3N 76.3W
LBAR 21.9N 75.8W 24.1N 74.7W 26.7N 73.7W 28.9N 72.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090520 1800 090521 1800 090522 1800 090523 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.0N 79.2W 29.6N 84.5W 30.3N 88.2W 30.3N 91.2W
BAMD 30.1N 78.7W 31.9N 84.2W 33.1N 88.0W 33.4N 91.3W
BAMM 29.4N 78.1W 31.3N 83.9W 32.4N 87.9W 32.3N 91.4W
LBAR 29.9N 71.2W 29.3N 68.6W 27.7N 64.2W 27.6N 57.9W
SHIP 44KTS 48KTS 52KTS 52KTS
DSHP 44KTS 32KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.9N LONCUR = 75.8W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 75.6W DIRM12 = 357DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 75.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
gatorcane wrote:Excellent NWS Miami discussion recently posted:
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181830
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...STRONG LATE-SEASON MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG S
ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS ABOUT TO CLOSE OFF JUST W OF
THE SW FL COAST. A WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT OR TROUGH IS LOCATED
N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND IS SAGGING SE...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS
TOUGH TO DETERMINE DUE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. A SECOND MID
LEVEL LOW...WITH PSBL WEAK SFC REFLECTION IS LOCATED BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LOCALLY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...AND OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINED UP IN THE
GULF OFFSHORE COLLIER COUNTY MOVING EAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BEGINNING TONIGHT.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION SEEMS TO BE WHERE EXACTLY A MID/UPPER LOW WILL
CLOSE/CUT OFF ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHAT IF ANY INTERACTION THERE
WILL BE WITH THE SYSTEM COMING NORTH FROM CUBA. THE 06Z/12Z GFS/00Z
ECMWF/00Z NAM ALL CLOSED THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM OFF FROM THE DIGGING
GULF TROUGH OVER THE FL WEST COAST OR ERN GULF...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
REFLECTION DEVELOPING BENEATH TO FORM A STACKED SYSTEM. THE 12Z NAM
HOWEVER HAS CHANGED ITS MIND AND MADE THE ERN MID-LEVEL SYSTEM
DOMINANT AS IT COMES NORTH OUT OF CUBA AND INTERACTS WITH THE
DIGGING GULF TROUGH...TAKING A STRONGER SFC LOW INTO ECENTRAL FL
AS OPPOSED TO ACROSS SOUTH FL OR OFF THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS
CONTINUES ITS DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THIS PATTERN WITH 2 WEAK SFC
LOWS...AND THE ONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND MOVING NW
TOWARDS ECENTRAL FL BEING THE DOMINANT ONE...THOUGH THIS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF THE ERN LOW N OF EASTERN CUBA HOLDS TOGETHER AS MID-
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR SOUTH FL. SEEMS LIKE THE KIND OF SITUATION
WHERE WE DON`T KNOW EXACT DETAILS UNTIL THE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
INITIALLY FOR TONIGHT...AS THE ERN GULF TROUGH DIGS MODELS DO AGREE
THAT WEAKENING SFC BOUNDARY/TROUGH WILL SAG SE TO SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTH FL...PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE SERN METRO AREAS AS AT LEAST
WEAK/BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR THE FL STRAITS. EXCELLENT
UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE
AND INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO A SETUP FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT AS IT DEPENDS JUST EXACTLY WHERE THE STALLED BOUNDARY
SETS UP AND FOCUSES THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE TRAINING
OF ANY CONVECTION...THOUGH THE SOUTHEAST COAST WOULD BE A FAVORED
PLACE FOR THIS TO OCCUR DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE. A LOT THROUGH
TOMORROW ALSO DEPENDS ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF.
OVERALL...WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST AS POPS ARE
ALREADY HIGH. GIVEN THE INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE...GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4KM FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AND PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BENEFICIAL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY
AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST.
BY MID/LATE WEEK...THE LARGE CUTOFF SYSTEM WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING
AWAY...BUT MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT THIS
PERIOD. THIS WOULD LEAVE SOUTH FL IN A RATHER HUMID AND TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH DEEP-LAYERED SERLY FLOW...MAKING AT LEAST SCATTERED DAILY
CONVECTION A GOOD BET
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
jaxfladude wrote:WOW 24-36 hours earlier than I was thinking based on the posts(Late evening Sunday edt) in the now closed thread about this system to be....please have the rains go to where it is needed the most....
Aric Dunn wrote:oh dear its not even on the NRL site..lol
but nice
cycloneye wrote:As its now a invest we will have two more models to look at,GFDL and HWRF.
cycloneye wrote:SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181942
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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