Possible development in EPac

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Shear values are quite high just to the north of the disturbance.

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 211135
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[HURAKAN]

533
ABPZ20 KNHC 211731
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION THIS
MORNING. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

174
ABPZ20 KNHC 212335
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 221155
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Is this region heading westwards towards eventually the warmer waters again?

If so while the short term is suggestive of nothing happening if it can hold onto at least something conditions may well become more condusive again towards the very end of the month.

[HURAKAN]

735
ABPZ20 KNHC 231131
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO HAVE DECREASED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

Development unlikely in the near future.

[HURAKAN]

Remember that the blob is located where the yellow circle is.