Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Many may ask,why I am making a thread about something that is inside the African continent.My answer is that first is the biggest system so far this year inside that continent.Second,waves in front of it will moist the air causing less sal disruptions than what all the waves so far in 2009 haved endured.Third,there is some model support although not a unity consensus and not a strong system.Also,and this is the main purpose of me doing this thread,climatology favors things to start to develop in the Tropical Atlantic as the calender turns to August.Will this develop into a Tropical Cyclone or nothing will come out of it? To find out,lets follow it here.

This image updates every half an hour.

[Tropics Guy]

The "wave train" looks like it may start rolling soon off of Africa, whether they hold together off the coast remains to be seen, but as we get real close to Aug now, climo should start favoring some development for some long trackers.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG

TG

[cycloneye]

One factor that will be in favor for this system and for the ones that will follow will be the wet phase of MJO that will start to kick into the Atlantic by the ladder part of the first week of August.



http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

[gatorcane]

We are still about two weeks away from the true Cape Verde season, the blob looks impressive but I just checked the models and the most I can find is some kind of broad low pressure area that goes poof halfway across the MDR.....

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With all global models showing nothing significant for the next two weeks, I think I will keep going with my mid to late August prediction for our first true system...Aug 20-something seems to keep coming to mind (yeah I'm challenging WxMan's Aug 8th, I think it is too soon). However, I think after that through September and some of October could see some pretty impressive systems in the Atlantic. If the Farmer's almanac is correct, the last two weeks in Aug, and the first week in September should be interesting. That three week window keeps coming to mind also for some reason.

[Fego]

Well, this part of the San Juan NWS Forecast Discussion (2:00 p.m.) add some light to the topic, IMO.

".... IN THE TROPICS...THE ITCZ DEPICTED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF 10N IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTAINS TWO DISCERNIBLE WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW. AS WE APPROACH A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ACTIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE
RELAXED. CURRENT TJSJ 27/1200Z RAOB...AS WELL AS OTHER PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS...SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND PROFILES STRAIGHT
THROUGH THE COLUMN. CONVERSELY...THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/
CONTINUES TO HINT AT SUPPRESSED LIFT AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE FOR AT LEAST TWO MORE WEEKS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. MOREOVER...THE LATEST 24-MONTH RUNNING TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY /ACE/ INDEX FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
SHOWS THE LOWEST SUMS IN NEARLY 30 YEARS. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
WHILE THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF...THE OVERALL TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT HAS PRECLUDED
ONE FROM ACTUALLY FORMING AT THIS TIME."

[Sanibel]

The wave over Mali has good depth. We'll see if it breaks the negativity.

[cycloneye]

Here are the observations from Mali that show the wave axis passage last night.Some squalls moved thru there,but pressures were not very low (The lowest 1012 mbs).

Code: Select all

Latest 6 AM (10) Jul 28 75 (24) 68 (20) 30.00 (1016) SW 7 
 5 AM (9) Jul 28 73 (23) 68 (20) 30.00 (1016) WSW 7 
 4 AM (8) Jul 28 71 (22) 68 (20) 29.97 (1015) W 6 
 3 AM (7) Jul 28 69 (21) 68 (20) 30.00 (1016) S 5 
 2 AM (6) Jul 28 69 (21) 68 (20) 30.00 (1016) N 1 light rain
 1 AM (5) Jul 28 69 (21) 68 (20) 30.03 (1017) N 6 light rain
 Midnight (4) Jul 28 69 (21) 66 (19) 30.00 (1016) Variable 2 rain with thunder
 11 PM (3) Jul 27 69 (21) 66 (19) 30.03 (1017) E 13 rain with thunder
 10 PM (2) Jul 27 71 (22) 68 (20) 30.00 (1016) E 24 rain with thunder; squalls
 9 PM (1) Jul 27 71 (22) 68 (20) 30.00 (1016) NE 7 light rain with thunder
 8 PM (0) Jul 27 69 (21) 68 (20) 30.00 (1016) NE 18 heavy rain with thunder; squalls, 
 7 PM (23) Jul 27 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.97 (1015) NW 5 thunder
 6 PM (22) Jul 27 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.97 (1015) NW 1 thunder
 5 PM (21) Jul 27 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.94 (1014) Variable 3 thunder
 4 PM (20) Jul 27 86 (30) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) WSW 7 thunder
 3 PM (19) Jul 27 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) WNW 7 thunder
 2 PM (18) Jul 27 87 (31) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) W 7 
 1 PM (17) Jul 27 91 (33) 69 (21) 29.88 (1012) W 7


http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GABS.html

[Frank2]

You might ask, "Where's Mali?"...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mali

P.S. IMO, this wave seems to have the most potential of any so far this season...

[cycloneye]

A great view of that big system that is ready to emerge.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a large squall line ahead of the wave

[Sanibel]

The African wave train helps rain down on the Niger River watershed that flows northeast to Timbuktoo in the Mali Sahel.

I think that wave busted. Negative atmospheric prevails.

[cycloneye]

looks like a large squall line ahead of the wave

Yes,the wave axis is behind.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the wave in front is acting like a vaccum cleaner.

[Gustywind]

Absolutely you're right Cycloneye...and opening maybe a window of opportunity for this feature

[cycloneye]

The squall line is now reaching the water,but the wave axis with a circulation (Not known at what level it is) is far behind as this is a large system.It may take a couple more days for it to completly emerge the African Coast.

See image at first post of thread.

[Gustywind]

Lull in the actionTom Moore, & Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
Jul. 29, 2009 6:07 am ET
[b]The Atlantic basin remains quiet.

There are three tropical waves from the Caribbean to just off the coast of Africa. However, none of these are showing any signs of organization.[/b]
At this time, it appears the Atlantic Basin will not see its first named storm before August 1st. This is not too uncommon, as about 25% of the time the first named storm does not occur until August. The last time this happened was 2004 when Alex was named on the first day in August.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

[cycloneye]

Lull in the actionTom Moore, & Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
Jul. 29, 2009 6:07 am ET
[b]The Atlantic basin remains quiet.

There are three tropical waves from the Caribbean to just off the coast of Africa. However, none of these are showing any signs of organization.[/b]
At this time, it appears the Atlantic Basin will not see its first named storm before August 1st. This is not too uncommon, as about 25% of the time the first named storm does not occur until August. The last time this happened was 2004 when Alex was named on the first day in August.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

Hi my friend.They are not talking about this one as it has not been introduced as a wave yet by TPC.They are mentioning the three waves currently in the charts,one in the Western Caribbean at 83W and the other two in the Atlantic,one close to Lesser Antilles at 56W and the other at 27W.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My amateur and unofficial prediction:


Poofation.

[Gustywind]

Lull in the actionTom Moore, & Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
Jul. 29, 2009 6:07 am ET
[b]The Atlantic basin remains quiet.

There are three tropical waves from the Caribbean to just off the coast of Africa. However, none of these are showing any signs of organization.[/b]
At this time, it appears the Atlantic Basin will not see its first named storm before August 1st. This is not too uncommon, as about 25% of the time the first named storm does not occur until August. The last time this happened was 2004 when Alex was named on the first day in August.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... om=hp_news

Hi my friend.They are not talking about this one as it has not been introduced as a wave yet by TPC.They are mentioning the three waves currently in the charts,one in the Western Caribbean at 83W and the other two in the Atlantic,one close to Lesser Antilles at 56W and the other at 27W.

You're right i tkink that this one has not been introduced and we shoul keep an eye on this during the next couple of days.

[Gustywind]

My amateur and unofficial prediction:


Poofation.