C/S TX Weather: Seasonal with some rains

[Portastorm]

40 days now of 100 degrees or higher reported at Camp Mabry and 32 days of 100 degrees or higher at the airport.

The heat goes on . . .

[srainhoutx]

I hear that Barton Springs is closed. Also heard that the Edwards Aquifer is getting dangerously low as well. Here's hoping that you folks can get a break soon without it being a strong tropical system.

[Shoshana]

According to KEYE tv There's been two cases just this week of fires caused by power poles falling and the wires igniting tinder dry brush.

And from KXAN:

BLANCO COUNTY (KXAN) - You know you're facing a serious drought when you have to move the fish.

The Blanco State Park is 100 acres along the Blanco River. Its website advertises boating, fishing and swimming, but there's hardly any of that going on this summer. The water is ankle deep.

This month, park rangers had to drain the water behind the dam in order to rescue thousands of fish that were trapped and losing oxygen due to the low water levels. The fish had to be moved, by hand, downstream.

Last I checked it was 103 at Mabry, 100 at Bergstrom, 104 at our house. Record is 105 at Mabry, it's gonna be close.

[vbhoutex]

According to KEYE tv There's been two cases just this week of fires caused by power poles falling and the wires igniting tinder dry brush.

And from KXAN:

BLANCO COUNTY (KXAN) - You know you're facing a serious drought when you have to move the fish.

The Blanco State Park is 100 acres along the Blanco River. Its website advertises boating, fishing and swimming, but there's hardly any of that going on this summer. The water is ankle deep.

This month, park rangers had to drain the water behind the dam in order to rescue thousands of fish that were trapped and losing oxygen due to the low water levels. The fish had to be moved, by hand, downstream.

Last I checked it was 103 at Mabry, 100 at Bergstrom, 104 at our house. Record is 105 at Mabry, it's gonna be close.

Do you feel like you are living in an oven? You guys can't catch a break no matter what is going on it seems.

[somethingfunny]

I guess CC got his wish as I saw the giant "H" above my house yesterday afternoon.

I tried to bring the rain back down from Ohio but it seems to have gotten lost up in north Texas.

And I feel terrible about hogging it all too! Our grass is brilliant emerald green, the lakes are at a nice and comfortable 1-2 feet above normal, and yesterday's high temperature was 77 degrees. I'm sorry!!!!!!!

I was thinking about heading down to Schlitterbahn and the Hill Country on a weekday after all the kiddos go back to school next month, but I'm worried there won't even be a Comal or Guadelupe River to float down.

[jasons2k]

Unfortunately, as Harold Taft used to say for us Texans, when we have an extreme like this, there will be a payback with the other.

I have a feeling many of us will be loving El Nino in October but cursing it by January.

Right now though, I just want to see some rain for us.

[Shoshana]

Yeah, it's an oven. And our ac compressor gave up the ghost. We've talked to 600,000 ac people trying to figure out what to do...

anyway, from Bob Rose's Weather Blog

Mon. 7/27/2009 The brutal heat and dry weather continues. Unfortunately, this week’s weather is not showing much promise of change as had been advertised late last week. A trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere has developed south through the middle of the country but the trough is hanging too far north to have any significant effect on our region’s weather. Rain showers and thunderstorms will tease the northern Hill Country and the northern counties Central Texas Tuesday through Wednesday, with the majority of the rain staying north over North Texas and the Red River Valley region. A few isolated showers will be possible late week, but it appears dry and hot weather will resume and hold in place through the weekend and into next week. Overall, the position of the Jet Stream is not changing all that much, with the storm track staying just to the north of our region. A broad area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere looks to hold in place over South Texas for at least the next ten-day period, possibly longer. With that in mind, our forecast is shaping to stay hot and generally dry well into August. So far, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet and isn’t expect to show any signs of life until about the10th of August.

Arg.

For Thursday and Friday, the front looks to stay stationary over North Texas, with a continued chance for rain. But across our region, just a few isolated afternoon showers appear possible. Otherwise, weather conditions will be partly cloudy and hot with high temperatures near 100-103 degrees. This weekend, continuing through most of next week, high pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to strengthen across much of Texas. This will diminish the threat for rain, with generally dry and very hot conditions. High temperatures each day will be near 102 to 104 degrees. A peek at today’s long-range solutions show little overall change in the weather pattern over the next 16 days. High pressure is forecast to hang tough over Texas, with little overall change in the hot and dry pattern.

On the current pace, the Austin and San Antonio will likely close out the month of July with the hottest average temperatures on record. This will be no small feat. This won’t only be the hottest July on record but it will also be the hottest month ever recorded. This summer is definitely rewriting the record books.
Bob

:whimper:

[vbhoutex]

Yeah, it's an oven. And our ac compressor gave up the ghost. We've talked to 600,000 ac people trying to figure out what to do...

anyway, from Bob Rose's Weather Blog

Mon. 7/27/2009 The brutal heat and dry weather continues. Unfortunately, this week’s weather is not showing much promise of change as had been advertised late last week. A trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere has developed south through the middle of the country but the trough is hanging too far north to have any significant effect on our region’s weather. Rain showers and thunderstorms will tease the northern Hill Country and the northern counties Central Texas Tuesday through Wednesday, with the majority of the rain staying north over North Texas and the Red River Valley region. A few isolated showers will be possible late week, but it appears dry and hot weather will resume and hold in place through the weekend and into next week. Overall, the position of the Jet Stream is not changing all that much, with the storm track staying just to the north of our region. A broad area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere looks to hold in place over South Texas for at least the next ten-day period, possibly longer. With that in mind, our forecast is shaping to stay hot and generally dry well into August. So far, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet and isn’t expect to show any signs of life until about the10th of August.

Arg.

For Thursday and Friday, the front looks to stay stationary over North Texas, with a continued chance for rain. But across our region, just a few isolated afternoon showers appear possible. Otherwise, weather conditions will be partly cloudy and hot with high temperatures near 100-103 degrees. This weekend, continuing through most of next week, high pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to strengthen across much of Texas. This will diminish the threat for rain, with generally dry and very hot conditions. High temperatures each day will be near 102 to 104 degrees. A peek at today’s long-range solutions show little overall change in the weather pattern over the next 16 days. High pressure is forecast to hang tough over Texas, with little overall change in the hot and dry pattern.

On the current pace, the Austin and San Antonio will likely close out the month of July with the hottest average temperatures on record. This will be no small feat. This won’t only be the hottest July on record but it will also be the hottest month ever recorded. This summer is definitely rewriting the record books.
Bob

:whimper:

OUCH!!!! [

[HouTXmetro]

Unfortunately, as Harold Taft used to say for us Texans, when we have an extreme like this, there will be a payback with the other.

I have a feeling many of us will be loving El Nino in October but cursing it by January.

Right now though, I just want to see some rain for us.

Why will we hate in January?

Because after a few months of an El Nino fall/winter, we'll probably need that flood policy...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't know if the storms will reach Austin or not, but beneficial rains are falling in the Colorado River watershed, and maybe the decline in the Highland Lakes will be slowed/halted.

[A1A]

Yeah, I'm watching that too. On the last page, at the KXAN discussion http://blogs.kxan.com/weather/2009/07/20/foiled-again-but-keep-the-faith/ link, Jim Spencer explained why the western travelling storms die out:

Timing is another culprit. In what we call “northwest flow” patterns, complexes of storms which form in the heat of the day in northwest Texas will track toward our area, producing widespread heavy rain all night long because they are being fed a constant moisture stream from what is known as a “low level jet stream.” It’s like a river of rich, tropical fuel for the storm complex, but that nocturnal flow of moist air shuts off when the sun comes up, leading to a collapse of the whole rain making system just as it reaches south-central Texas.

We will wait and see if this holds out. NWS is still saying only 10% chance.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Unfortunately, as Harold Taft used to say for us Texans, when we have an extreme like this, there will be a payback with the other.

I have a feeling many of us will be loving El Nino in October but cursing it by January.

Right now though, I just want to see some rain for us.

That's the way it usually happens. In 1980 , we got Hurricane Allen down in these parts.

So if "payback" happens in the next two months, it will come from the tropics. If it happens in Dec to February (maybe even late November), it will come from the Arctic regions.

[Portastorm]

Speaking of Lucy ... nothing like watching these impressive-looking mesoscale systems blow up in west Texas, move east towards us ... then poop out into nothing over our area but clouds and humidity. Talk about pouring salt into the wound ...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of Lucy ... nothing like watching these impressive-looking mesoscale systems blow up in west Texas, move east towards us ... then poop out into nothing over our area but clouds and humidity. Talk about pouring salt into the wound ...

But it may delay the water level drops in Lake LBJ and Lake Buchanan.

[Shoshana]

Wow... didn't make it to 100 today! Did at our house, but that doesn't count. 98 at Mabry....

[srainhoutx]

Some "hope" for you folks in Central TX...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/30/09 1303Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1245Z DS
.
LOCATION...WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...COLD TOP CELLS..POSSIBLE CELL TRAINING
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF COLD TOP CELLS FROM NR MAF ESEWD ACROSS W CENTRAL TX INVOF
MENARD/SCHLEICHER COUNTIES. THESE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO AROUND
-70C WITH THE CLUSTER FARTHER SE REACHING -75C. GOES SOUNDER/GPS VALUES
INDICATE AROUND 1.5-1.6" PW'S IN PLACE ALONG THE ORIENTATION OF THESE
CELLS WITH RH'S AROUND 90% PER LATEST SFC OBS SO LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
ALREADY WELL SATURATED..WHICH WILL MAKE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. CELLS
APPEAR TO BE MOVING IN AN ESE TO SEWD MOTION MOSTLY FOLLOWING ALONG THE
700MB FLOW PER PROFILER DATA/12Z STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
A LL BNDRY PRESENT LAYED DOWN PREVIOUSLY BY EITHER THE MCV THAT HAS NOW
MOVED INTO CENTRAL TX OR POSSIBLY BY THE MCS. 1245Z IMAGE HAS SHOWN SOME
ADDTL CELLS FORMING IN VIS IMAGERY N AND S OF THE CLUSTER NR MAF AND AN
OVERSHOOTING TOP ON THE CLUSTER OVER MENARD/SCHLEICHER COUNTIES. WITH
LIKELINESS THAT CELLS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME PATH ACROSS W CENTRAL TX
INCREASING..CELL TRAINING MAY BE AN ISSUE AS ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-2"/HR CROSS THE AREA.

[Portastorm]

Yes indeed! Austin residents ran into the streets this morning in amazement of moisture falling from the sky. Old-timers said it is something called "rain."

[Shoshana]

We got .15" of inch of rain... we'll take it! And 2 days in a row under 100! Whee! It was 97 yesterday, the coolest since July 1st! It's already 98 at Mabry ....

[Shoshana]

From the Austin American Statesman:

July 2009 sets record for temperatures

By Juana Summers
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Saturday, August 01, 2009

July 2009 goes down as the hottest month ever recorded, Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist Bob Rose said Friday.

The previous record, with an average daily temperature of 89.1 degrees, was set in July 1860. Last month, daily temperatures averaged 89.5 degrees.

July 2009 had 26 days with temperatures over 100 degrees, and 42 days saw triple-digit highs so far this summer.

Highest temperature on a July day at Camp Mabry: 109 degrees, July 27, 1954

July 2009 rainfall total at Camp Mabry: 0.25 inches

Normal rainfall total: 1.97 inches

Altho I think it's 43 now - as of July 31.

[Portastorm]

How do you like that? The hottest month recorded -- EVER!

El Nino -- The Fall Version cannot come soon enough as far as I'm concerned.