Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

thought the UKMET was not being plotted on that page anymore. Doesn't show up on the main page

At the links to other models,after bin/ you put ukm and that is it.

bin/ukm

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF shows this low (albeit weak) also at 216 hours out, heading west into the MDR.

With three models showing some kind of weak low from a tropical wave, it will bear watching -- but we are about 7-10 days from it happening....and not by coincidence when the true Cape Verde season begins..

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9080100!!/

[Ed Mahmoud]

DOUBLE POST ALERT


Joe Bastardi says, in his opinion, based on the SOI change and the upward motion pulse, there will be a brief window of opportunity around mid-August for something to develop, before the SOI change occuring now leads to the door slamming shut in late August into September.


I don't know why, except for the CPAC near misses (and Iniki was a September storm and Iwa was a November storm, so Hawai'i has loads of hurricane season left) this will be a real low number 1992 type season.

And with coastlines in 3 directions, I have to think Florida has the best shot of a storm.

I'm thinking, based on days without electricity after Ike and sleeping on sweat soaked sheets in my boxers, and this after a cool front passed, an August hurricane without air conditioning would be really unpleasant.


Joe Bastardi says he has alerted his big money customers of an expected threat, but exactly where, his $100/year clients like me, he didn't say. But he has been alluding to either the Southeast or Northeast since April.


ETA:

JB left this URL from the ensemble site as a clue:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_f360_nh.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice wave in 1 week Mid-Atlantic

40 knot low level Easterlies in the Caribbean would not seem favorable if this makes it that far, both as far as convergence goes and faster wave motion/shear.

Not much at the 500 mb level yet, so it should be steered shallow, or generally Westward.


Light flow aloft


Looking beyond the 180 hour wave reduction resolution lobotomy...

Weakens and moved WNW to NW

[cycloneye]

12z EURO has closed low

Is the first time that the ECMWF model,(The best in 2009 IMO) has a closed low and sustains it for the majority of the run.

12z ECMWF

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not much of a closed low, and it weakens it day 7 through day 10, so on day 10 it doesn't even show one of its 5 mb/division isobars closed around it.


But it is a start. And the size of the area of the 30 knot plus Easterlies screaming across the Caribbean is shrinking, so at least as far as shear and surface convergence, the area near and East of the Caribbean should be less hostile.


ETA: The GFS also weakens it after a week, but I assume (could be making a me of u and an, nevermind) that is a artifact of the resolution reduction at tau 180.

[gatorcane]

Not much of a closed low, and it weakens it day 7 through day 10, so on day 10 it doesn't even show one of its 5 mb/division isobars closed around it.


But it is a start. And the size of the area of the 30 knot plus Easterlies screaming across the Caribbean is shrinking, so at least as far as shear and surface convergence, the area near and East of the Caribbean should be less hostile.

What's important is that it along with GFS and CMC show some kind of weak closed low also. Forget about 10+ days out, that will likely change as models get a better handle on the situation...... I think this could be a real shot of something here for the first time in 2009.

[srainhoutx]

Remember, the MJO goes positive in the Atlantic Basin around mid August.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS ensemble track starts at the 4th.



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.gif

[jinftl]

Watch the trend from model run to model run....the most recent (18z), prior run (12z), and the run prior to that one (6z) are trending more west with whatever this system may be

Most recent (18z):


Prior run (12z):


2 runs prior to current (6z):

[Dean4Storms]

It does look like a track toward maybe the NE Carib. if it materializes as the last run indicates. But this will likely change 10fold if we get anything at all!

[Ed Mahmoud]

DOUBLE POST ALERT



Bed time approaches, don't want to be yawning at Mass...


GFS has started, and has a nice disturbance, closed at 850 mb, in 3 days.



ETA:

No idea if I believe it, but it is a 25 knot TD then...



This is hotlinked (I know, I know, Photobucket), but the thread should be on a new page by this time tomorrow...

[cycloneye]

GFS continues with its convective feedback as it shows some areas at the start of this 12z run.It has a weak low moving west,then turning NW around 45W,but nothing much stromger. In the long range period,it shows a parade of lows emerging Africa,but the developments with those is weak.We know the drill after 144 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The Canadian model at the 12z run shows some flashes of something,but anything that may cause you to open your eyes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12z UKMET shows the same flashes as the Canadian.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Here are the tracks of UKMET,CMC and GFS at their 12z runs.UKMET and GFS start at the 4th and CMC starts tracking on the 6th.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

geez what a season. Edge of my seat


Looks like models are finally converging on something. That system rolling off africa

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO hangs on a low for a pretty long time but it vanishes at the end of run.

12z ECMWF

The summary of the 12z runs that have some form of development and those that dont have anything.

1-GFS+Yes
2-CMC=Yes
3-UKMET=Yes
4-NOGAPS=No
5-ECMWF=Yes

[Derek Ortt]

maybe my dream of a 3 storm season will come true

[gatorcane]

The 12z EURO hangs on a low for a pretty long time but it vanishes at the end of run.

12z ECMWF

The summary of the 12z runs that have some form of development and those that dont have anything.

1-GFS+Yes
2-CMC=Yes
3-UKMET=Yes
4-NOGAPS=No
5-ECMWF=Yes

So far the model consensus is quite good. I do believe we are going to have something to track here in about 7-10 days from now (a Cape Verde system it appears), and as expected the board will come to life again. If it forms into a named system it would be closer to the end of that range, probably anywhere in the Aug. 10-15th range.....


Here is another view of the ECMWF, with the system headed in the general direction of the NE Caribbean, or to the are just NE of the Leewards.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9080212!!/

[jinftl]

What are you seeing that makes a 3-storm season seem a potentially realized dream? Not being facetious....there is no denying we are in a weak el nino now, and this could become a moderate one in the fall. but that alone wouldn't even make a 3-storm season seem a reasonable forecast. The season during the strongest el nino in recent memory back in 1997 had 8 named storms.

Be curious to hear your take on what other factors may not only be present now, but will persist enough to 'shut the season done' effectivey? What on August 2nd indicates a potential season storm total so low that would make this is a once or twice in a hundred year-type occurrence or was this just a Sunday afternoon daydream?


p.s. Why not go all out and have a 0 storm season dream? dream big!!!

maybe my dream of a 3 storm season will come true

[Derek Ortt]

did you not see the word maybe

I in no way am forecasting this... mere wishing on my part