Disturbance fizzeled in Eastern Atlantic

[Gustywind]

[Ed Mahmoud]

1)
Not enough people watch the Tor de France to know who Contador is. You'd do better referencing Timo Glock.


2) After closely staring at 850 mb vorticity on the Canadian, whether it is a phantom depression or not, the depression it develops is from vorticity near 30ºW at tau=6 hours.

[wxman57]

1)
Not enough people watch the Tour de France to know who Contador is. You'd do better referencing Timo Glock.

2) After closely staring at 850 mb vorticity on the Canadian, whether it is a phantom depression or not, the depression it develops is from vorticity near 30ºW at tau=6 hours.

Knowing Derek (and a TDF fan), I think it's safe to say that he has little chance of defeating Contador in the 2010 Tour de France (me either).

As for the Canadian model, it has been updated this year in an attempt to reduce the phantom TC development. However, I think it's probably wrong in showing any significant development with the system approaching 30W. It is, as Derek said, in the wave train ridge (higher pressure). Let's see if there's anything left in a day or two.

[Sanibel]

Could have a spinner here.


Should be a sign of others to follow.


There's even another weak one emerging right behind it.


Hey, wasn't Andrew a weak dry little disturbance no one thought would form?

[FireBird]

time to burst everyone's bubble

the first one has as much chance at developing as I have of defeating Alberto Contador at the 2010 Tour de France.

That is merely an area of convection at the ridge of the wave train. Yes, that is at the surface ridge of relatively higher pressure. The second area is associated with the next tropical wave

we are looking at quiet probably until the last days of the month based upon some experimental products

I've seen reference on other sites as well that no tropical development is likely till mid-to-late August. Could we get some more info on the products that are being used to determine such, as well as their analyses?
I'd be glad to take a read/ look. Thanks.

[Gustywind]

Looks correct...

[gatorcane]

time to burst everyone's bubble

the first one has as much chance at developing as I have of defeating Alberto Contador at the 2010 Tour de France.

That is merely an area of convection at the ridge of the wave train. Yes, that is at the surface ridge of relatively higher pressure. The second area is associated with the next tropical wave

we are looking at quiet probably until the last days of the month based upon some experimental products

Not sure I agree here Derek. It's looking better by the hour. I would be shocked if no code is issued later today as upper-level winds are going to be very favorable for development for the next few days at least. Looks like our first Cape Verde system could be on its way to getting going here. It will be a gradual process it looks like.

[cycloneye]

I didnt know where to post this discussion from HPC about conditions improving in the Atlantic,but I think this is a good thread to have it.

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND THE
EMPIRICAL WAVE PROPAGATION (EWP) MODELS SHOW MJO OVER THE DOMAIN
GRADUALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE...WITH BOTH SHOWING CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC/EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE SECOND WEEK IN AUGUST.
THEY...HOWEVER...DIFFER ON HOW LONG CONDITIONS ARE TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE...WITH THE EWP SHOWING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UP TO
THREE WEEKS...WHILE THE CFS TAPERS OFF AFTER TWO. WE ARE DUE FOR A
LONG STRETCH...SO WE ARE LEANING IN FAVOR OF WHAT THE EWP
SUGGESTS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[Gustywind]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 14:41 GMT le 03 août 2009

There's still not much to talk about the tropical Atlantic today. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the band of intense thunderstorms that spans the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown more active in the past few days, though. The two tropical waves in the ITCZ closest to the coast of Africa bear some scrutiny this week as they cross the Atlantic. However, none of the models are currently forecasting development of these waves, and there is plenty of wind shear and dry air that will interfere with potential development.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1268

[Gustywind]

[b]Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 3, 2009 1:54 pm ET

The Atlantic basin remains very quiet. The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico currently have no features of interest.

Well out in the Atlantic, a tropical wave is located near Africa. This area will be monitored as it moves west, however no development appears imminent at this time.[/b]

[eastcoastFL]

Something to watch at least, thank god!

[wxman57]

Wouldn't it be great if we made it to September without a named storm? Let's go for the record!

[Ptarmigan]

Wouldn't it be great if we made it to September without a named storm? Let's go for the record!

We'll see about it.

[eastcoastFL]

Wouldn't it be great if we made it to September without a named storm? Let's go for the record!

I dont think it would be that great. I want to see a storm this year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wouldn't it be great if we made it to September without a named storm? Let's go for the record!

That has been what I've been saying. If we could break the modern 1983 record, we'd all be witnesses to history!


And I still think we'll have a Hawai'ian system sometime this year.

Iwa was in November, so by the time we give up on Hawai'i, it is Texas Snow Miracle Season!

It would be like watching a 1-0 pitchers duel.



That said, this looks almost as good as any Atlantic invest this year, as far as having a semi-circular shape and some colder cloud tops.


I can be interested either way. Home run derby or pitcher's duel.

[Macrocane]

Wouldn't it be great if we made it to September without a named storm? Let's go for the record!

No, it wouldn't. I don't care about that record.

[cycloneye]

Updated loop with night arriving in the Eastern Atlantic.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wouldn't it be great if we made it to September without a named storm? Let's go for the record!

No, it wouldn't. I don't care about that record.

I missed the Cowboys beating the Eagles (they lost the later season game) and USC stomp Ohio State, plus spent hundreds of dollars on bottled water, canned food and batteries and candles, and slept on sweaty sheets for days because of a tropical cyclone.

Didn't El Salvador have a rare EPac tropical system last year or the year before?

OK, the Joe Bastardi perfect storm just West of Delaware Bay causing a massive Philadelphia flood sounds exciting, but I'm sure even in Philadelphia there are probably a few good people, so it is best to temper the excitement of a big hurricane with the knowledge of the inconvenience, even injury or death, it causes.


Plus, my wife's grandfather, "Popo", lost his Summer place in Galveston, and I haven't been fishing in the surf all year.


I didn't always feel this way, when I saw cable TV for the first time in 1976 because of a hurricane evac (power died right before my first "R" rated movie ever, which later turned out to be "Blazing Saddles" at a theater with my Dad), and then missed 5 straight days of school in February 1978, I loved exiciting weather.

I still like watching tornado chase videos on the Discovery Channel, and am glad my home isn't in "tornado alley".

[RL3AO]

Wouldn't it be great if we made it to September without a named storm? Let's go for the record!

I dont think it would be that great. I want to see a storm this year.

Then look about 8500 miles west because you might see a historic storm this week.

[wxman57]

Wouldn't it be great if we made it to September without a named storm? Let's go for the record!

I dont think it would be that great. I want to see a storm this year.

Then look about 8500 miles west because you might see a historic storm this week.

Saw that - the West Pacific gyre is wrapping up into a single big TC.