Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THIS WAVE MOVES TO WEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[FireBird]

Good morning all. Gotta say I'm getting that excited/ nervous energy about this blob. I've noticed that the ITCZ has dropped south a bit, and the convection that existed with the wave that'll pass over me at 62W is all but gone. There's bright sunshine outside. I expect we'll have an afternoon shower or two but not the thunderstorm activity we were expecting from last night. I have a gut feeling that the blob is quietly pulling it all in, and I'm curious at what'll happen next. I read that the models are all tied up on this one. I'm thinking it'll stay west and improve till about 50W before it starts a jog NW, maybe through that gap between Tobago and Barbados. Of course, that's just my amateur opinion. I have no choice but to wait and see......
Have a good day folks.

[Gustywind]

Good morning all. Gotta say I'm getting that excited/ nervous energy about this blob. I've noticed that the ITCZ has dropped south a bit, and the convection that existed with the wave that'll pass over me at 62W is all but gone. There's bright sunshine outside. I expect we'll have an afternoon shower or two but not the thunderstorm activity we were expecting from last night. I have a gut feeling that the blob is quietly pulling it all in, and I'm curious at what'll happen next. I read that the models are all tied up on this one. I'm thinking it'll stay west and improve till about 50W before it starts a jog NW, maybe through that gap between Tobago and Barbados. Of course, that's just my amateur opinion. I have no choice but to wait and see......
Have a good day folks.

Nice reply and good analysis Firebird you're right ! We have to wait and see but i'm amazed by the constancy of this feature since yesterday morning, this blob seems to pop steadily with an nice enveloppe of moisture helping to get low the pressure in vicinity. We should continue monitor this little boy as the models are not indicating an accurate intensity and thus a path, because it's "only" a very well organized twave or soon perturbed area. Moreover, as we're entering the peak of hurricance activity don't let our guard down in this period...

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discussion of this system

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2009

A tropical disturbance embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), near 9N 35W, is moving west at about 15 mph. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with this tropical wave has changed little over the past 24 hours, and remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a moderate wind shift, but nothing resembling an organized surface circulation. Top winds were in the 20 - 30 mph range. Strong easterly winds are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the wave, which is marginally conducive for development. The disturbance is about 300 miles south of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), so dust and dry air should not hinder development over the next few days.

Given the disturbance's current lack of organization, combined with the presence of 20 knots of wind shear, any development should be slow to occur. The forecast wind shear along the storm's path over the next five days is predicted to remain at or below 20 knots, which should allow some slow development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will warm from about 28°C to 29°C as the storm progresses westward. The GFS model has been indicating some development is possible in several of its runs over the past few days, but has not been consistent with this prediction. None of the other models show any development of the system. NHC is giving the disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days, which is a good forecast. The GFS and ECMWF models predict the system will be approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. Both models forecast the development of a band of very high wind shear just to the north of the islands at that time, so the long-range survival of anything that might manage to develop is in doubt.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041531
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1131 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2009

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TUTT LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST UNTIL THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ONLY FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AND UNTIL 04/1700Z.
AFTER 04/1700Z PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ
AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST UNTIL 04/2200Z.

&&

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 041527
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1126 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2009

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NOTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE WIND
WAS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND THE
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE MORNING WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. IT WILL BE BREEZY...WITH A GUSTY
EAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

LIMITED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND FAIRLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
204 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN CU LINES DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 50 W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND REACH OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 04/2200Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 04/1200Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW...UP TO 25 KNOTS...FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST ABOVE THAT LEVEL.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 20 KNOTS ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...THIS WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 041849
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS...BUT LIMITED PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND WAS MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND THE
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WERE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WAS
THE RESULT OF THE INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN COMBINATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS. FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IN GENERAL NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

Fair weather and clear skies continues...

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion:

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 12N23W 10N32W 10N40W
12N48W 12N51W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 15W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOCUSED W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 15N30W TO 6N30W. THE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-41W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 050111
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
911 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2009

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FEW PASSING SHRA AND LOW LEVEL CLDS WILL
MOVE WESTWARDS ACROSS FLYING AREA BTWN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BRIEFLY BRUSH PARTS OF
STX...STT AND THE NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SJU. NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES. LATEST TJSJ U/A
SOUNDING INDICATED PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF UP TO 25 KNOTS
FROM SFC-10 KFT...BECMG LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO AT LEAST 30 KFT.


&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.Afternoon showers here are expected.Still watching what is going on to our east.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT WITH AXIS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE IS TO EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER HISPANIOLA BY THU. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 55W TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON THU. STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD SW INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF TUTT AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TYPICALLY IS A FAVORABLE PLACE OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AT BEST WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.65 INCHES. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE CONVECTION ON THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE AMTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THU. ALTHOUGH
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE MOMENT
WAVE IS LIKELY TO GET MORE ACTIVE AS IT APPROACHES PR/USVI AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH EAST SIDE OF TUTT LOW FCST TO EVOLVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN PROHIBITIVE OF TC FORMATION.

BEHIND THE WAVE A WIND SURGE WILL FOLLOW WITH HAZE AND DUST
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN FOR FRI AND SAT LIKELY PUTTING A LID ON
CONVECTION. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER POPS FOR FRI AND SAT AS AIR MASS
LOOKS BONE DRY. IN ANY CASE...EXCELLENT BEACH WX EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS QUIET WITH NO THREAT AREAS TO
DISCUSS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ WITH VCTS. REST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY VCSH AT BEST. GREATER SHRA/TSRA CVRG
IS EXPECTED FOR THU AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH TO
THE WEST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN AROUND 6 FT ACROSS AMZ710. WINDS INCREASE
THU NIGHT BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE WITH SCA LIKELY FOR AMZ710 AND 732.

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friens Are you in shape? Sure...?How many push up and abs have you do this morning? 0...ohh noo, no problem for this time because you're in holiday and the sun is always shining today except for some showers. Temperatures are climbing in Guadeloupe, 33 °C are expected !
All seems quiet in the Atlantic but we should not let our guard as twaves has begun to be more organized, so like Cycloneye mentionned it: "Still watching to our east".

Clear skies with a weak twave along 55W approaching the Eastern Carib

[Gustywind]

Tropical Discussion/ Twave activity000

AXNT20 KNHC 050604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO
15N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 5N TO 16N. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 9N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N54W 9N52W MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.

WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NOW 17N54W-9N52W
TROPICAL WAVE IS A TROUGH ALONG 60W FROM 18N TO 25N. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
IT IS NOT EASY TO DETERMINE WHICH FEATURE IS MORE RESPONSIBLE
FOR AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 13N24W...FROM 8N32W TO
10N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 25W.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 050921
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST WED AUG 5 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SOME BRIEFLY BRUSHING ONE OR TWO OF THE ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH.

FOR TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER LAND...BUT MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

$$

[Gustywind]

What's up in the Atlantic?
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 5, 2009 6:41 am ET

The Atlantic is quiet. An area of low pressure in the Central Atlantic that was being monitored for development lost much of its thunderstorm activity during the early morning hours of Wednesday.

Here is a loop to see what's going on




Have a good day to all

[msbee]

Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Team Slightly Lowers Forecast, Continues to Predict Below-Average Season

http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/4727


Barbara

[Gustywind]

Colorado State University Hurricane Forecast Team Slightly Lowers Forecast, Continues to Predict Below-Average Season

http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/4727


Barbara

Tkanks Barbara we appreciate

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 051419
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 AM AST WED AUG 5 2009

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ
WITH VCTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM 17Z TO 23Z. ELSEWHERE
SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&