Disturbance In Eastern Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

Floater:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp
Go to the 2nd floater

[cycloneye]

Thank you very much Blown_Away for making this thread and you know why I thank you.

Its going to be a struggle for this as it has to deal with the dry air around and later with shear as the TUTT awaits to its NW.But neverless,its an interesting feature that those who live in the Eastern Caribbean islands have to watch for the potential of heavy rains.

[Blown Away]

I knew you would like the new thread!

[Gustywind]

SAL... not an easy trip for this low

[wxman57]

Surface obs don't really support much of a low in that region. There are W-WSW winds extending from west of 40W all the way to Africa now. To the north of 11-12N, winds are NE-ENE. There's one observation about 120 miles SW of the thunderstorm cluster of NE at 10 kts. So I think that QS is indicating more of a weak, elongated surface trof in the region, extending between about 40N and Africa. If there is any weak circulation at all, obs put it near 9.5N/137.2W. That's about 250 miles southwest of that area of storms.

Here's a surface chart/sat pic. The red crosshairs are where one could identify a very weak rotation - or it just could be the trof axis showing up there. I can't really see any circulation in the low clouds on high-res visible loops, which we have for every 15 minutes through Meteosat:

[Stormcenter]

Are we grasping at air here?

[wxman57]

Are we grasping at air here?

I think the natives are getting restless. My coworker did a study on analogs to 2009 and found that the mean date of the first storm was August 16th. That might not be too far off.

[somethingfunny]

It's a persistent little feature. Maybe in about a week, wherever it is a week from now, we'll see this thing spin up into something.

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

MIMIC TPW imagery does show a low to mid-level rotation in the area, along with a good bit of moisture:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

But I think we're still over a week away from Ana. Could be 2 weeks.

[Stormsfury]

Some hints of some upper level outflow on the west and NW circle of the disturbance, which at least may be allowing some of this convection to sustain itself.

[dixiebreeze]

This thread might get busier than we think during the next week. There is also a huge convective mass in inland Africa moving west.

[Blown Away]

Convection has been persistent all day long and there is a low attached to this area. Maybe the NHC puts a yellow polygon around this area at 8pm? Yes, I am getting restless, but I always stay interested when there is persistence.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Are we grasping at air here?

I think the natives are getting restless. My coworker did a study on analogs to 2009 and found that the mean date of the first storm was August 16th. That might not be too far off.

Felicia is pretty cool now, but the GFDL doesn't even have it to Hawai'i yet at tau 126 and it is barely a tropical storm. IE, it has a shot at Cat 4, but it isn't Iniki or Iwa.


So, Houston Snow Miracle season is 3 months away, college football doesn't start for 4 weeks, I never got back into baseball after the strike, it now bores me like the cricket match I tried to watch in Singapore once, so it is back to GOMEX blob watching.


Now, JB didn't say anything that one could call concrete, but it seems like he is up for a Southeast US tropical threat after mid-month. He mentioned 1983, but the telestrator work seemed to suggest Florida, and I'm a big believer in 3 coasts, three times the odds.

[cycloneye]

Blown_Away,your low is still being analized This is the 18z Surface chart.

[cycloneye]

From 8 PM Discussion

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 13N32W 12N35W 9N40W 8N43W
8N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 13W-21W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N34W MOVING W
AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRIMARILY NW OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Gustywind]

From 8 PM
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[gatorcane]

isn't this the same low that is associated with the Strong Tropical Wave we have been following in the other thread?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=105969

[cycloneye]

isn't this the same low that is associated with the Strong Tropical Wave we have been following in the other thread?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=105969

Not the same system.The thread I made was the disturbance in the ITCZ that came off Africa with a MLC.This one came off Africa just behind.

[Gustywind]

The next one coming behind seems supporting juicy and concentrated convection