Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Ok,Luis;

Hi Huc, how are you? Do you read your PM? (personnal messages) I sent you 3 messages hope you will read them as possible
Gustywind

[msbee]

Barbara,I went to stormcarib and was surprised as a link to the tent thread was posted there.Lets see if we get a few people from there to come here.

yes, I posted a message there about the tent in one of my st maarten reports and then I think Gert who runs stormcarib, posted the link for all to see.

Here also are 2 more web cams from St. Croix

http://www.gotostcroix.com/live/harborcam.php

http://www.gotostcroix.com/live/beachcam.php

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all the Caribbean friends . Hope you're in shape this morning because the sun is shinning in everywhere in this thread
Here is a sat pic of the Lesser Antilles:

[Gustywind]

Barbara,I went to stormcarib and was surprised as a link to the tent thread was posted there.Lets see if we get a few people from there to come here.

yes, I posted a message there about the tent in one of my st maarten reports and then I think Gert who runs stormcarib, posted the link for all to see.

Here also are 2 more web cams from St. Croix

http://www.gotostcroix.com/live/harborcam.php

http://www.gotostcroix.com/live/beachcam.php

Hi Barbara glad to see you this morning tkanks for these two great web cams from St. Croix

[Gustywind]

Looking to our east, things are heating up... a bit.

James Wilson, & Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
Aug. 9, 2009 6:28 am ET


In the Atlantic, a couple of weak tropical waves continue to move west across the tropical basin, but these are not expected to show any organization. One wave will increase showers over the Lesser Antilles.

There is a new wave coming off of the African coast that will be monitored to see if it can hold any thunderstorms as it moves west.The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain mainly quiet through the weekend.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

Interresting latest outlook...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

This wave has continued to organize this morning...and given the NRL weather site, INVEST 99L is up. To have more infos go on the thread open by Cycloneye viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106100&hilit=&p=1899320#p1899320

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL site:
20090809.1145.99LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-125N-206W

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... ROD=1km_bw

Very impressive Invest, looking very very good...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE WELL DEFINED
LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING JUST E OF THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION COVERING THE AREA FROM
9N-16N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

$$
WALLACE

[msbee]

will this be our first one I wonder?

Barbara

[cycloneye]

will this be our first one I wonder?

Barbara

Is so far away that is too soon to know if we will be impacted.But
lets continue to watch it and see what the track is.From now I say that a wave that will emerge in the next few days,may be the one to watch more closely as it will emerge Africa at a lower latitud and the models develop it.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN AUG 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY...FOLLOW IT BY A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE THURSDAY. TROPICAL
ATLANTIC START TO GET ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR CONTINUED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STREAMERS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF SAINT THOMAS
AND SAINT CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE STREAMER COMING
FROM SAINT THOMAS...AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVED FROM TIME TO TIME...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED. LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS INDICATED THAT PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED THE LAST 24 HOURS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH A MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48/49W IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...FOR
WEDNESDAY...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
BRIEFLY TO THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE TWO WAVES...COULD PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO..WHICH WILL MAY LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING. IN FACT...LATEST SJU-GFS 12Z TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATED MOISTURE EXTENDING AT ALL LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...BETWEEN THU 06Z AND FRIDAY AT 18Z. THIS PERIOD IS
WHEN WE EXPECT THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

[b]THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS STARTING TO GET ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON. A
VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH WAS LOCATED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT
THIS SYSTEM.



[/b]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 092345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W FROM 6N TO 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
ASSOCIATED LOW PRES 1009 MB IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW/MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING UP NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE THROUGH 13N22W TO
9N25W. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITH THIS WAVE AND LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REFER
TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST SUN AUG 9 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF ZONE 1 AND ZONE
3 AND PART OF ZONE 8 AS MOST SHOWERS HAVE NOW CLEARED FROM THE
REST OF PUERTO RICO. HAVE INCHED UP POPS TO REFLECT THE CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST AND EAST PUERTO RICO. THE NAM
KEEPS GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 10/12Z WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS CONTINUE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MONA CHANNEL AT THIS TIME. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED DRY
AIR ABOVE 13 THOUSAND FEET. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK PROMISING
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONGER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to the fellow Caribbean friends.Watching what is going on to our east.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST MON AUG 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY...AS A VERY WEAK AND FAIRLY DRY EASTERLY
PERTURBATION MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND HAVE LITTLE AFFECT OF THE REGION TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
NOW NEAR 56 WEST WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BUT STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEARING
46 WEST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BASED OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE LATTER MENTIONED ACTIVE WAVE
WILL AID IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AS WELL
AS 10/00Z TJSJ U/A SOUNDING SHOWED THAT PW VALUES HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA...AS A FAIRLY MOIST EAST NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW TRANSPORTED FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE TODAY TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER PARTS
OF THE WEST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE REST OF THE
ISLANDS SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL SO FAR..AS WELL
AS THE FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST PW VALUES TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO 2.25 INCHES OR MORE BY FRIDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOIST
TROPICAL AIR FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
TUTT LOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF JUST WEST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL THEREFORE INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
WAVES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TWO WAVES...
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
IN TURN WILL LEAD TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM...
AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A NOTED SHIFT
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS APPARENT AS NORTHERN MODULATION OF ITCZ
CONTINUED...WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WAVE BASED ON LATED GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE
CENTER HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SO LOOK LIKES THE ATLANTIC...IS SLOWLY COMING
ALIVE. AS THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH FALLS
IN PLACE WITH THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHEN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC STARTS
TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE. WILL HOWEVER HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

[cycloneye]

672
ABNT20 KNHC 101140
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 100926
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST MON AUG 10 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED PASSING LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNT MEASURED. THE WINDS WERE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WITH THE HELP OF THE EASTERLY TRADES FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SOME PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY FOR THE ISLANDS
FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...A WET PERIOD IS EXPECT FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL EASTERLY WAVES CROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NO
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Gustywind]

Looking carefully to our east...000
AXNT20 KNHC 101131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W FROM 9N TO 18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE SW OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 23W-28W. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS TILTED NW TO SE FROM 17N47W TO 8N39W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS ORIENTED WITHIN A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
AND WELL DEFINED CURVATURE IN THE LOW CLOUDS. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 OF 15N BETWEEN
41W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 57W/58W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 15N55W
TO 14N60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN AND COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE DRY STABLE CONDITIONS THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 18N16W 11N32W 12N39W...THEN
ALONG 8N43W 13N55W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TO 11N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
7N-10N. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
30W-35W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG OF LINE FROM 6N41W 7N47W TO
8N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W WITH A SURGE OF DRY
AIR ALOFT SWEEPING ACROSS N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 27N
CAPPING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND PUSHING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N TO
OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 88W-92W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOTTING THE AREA S OF 26N E OF 86W OVER THE S TIP OF
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 20N97W COVERING THE W
GULF DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS MEXICO
AND S TEXAS INTO THE FAR W GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF
94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE W CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED SW OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N83W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 83W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
AN UPPER HIGH NEAR PUERTO RICO. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE FAR S
CARIBBEAN. THIS MOIST AIR COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS THEN THE N PORTION OF COLOMBIA
CROSSING COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W TO OVER THE
AREA FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N67W
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 14N60W. A SMALL AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
ATLC N OF 24N W OF 65W WITH DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 27N61W ACROSS E CUBA TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
A NARROW BAND OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE
AND TROUGH IS PRODUCING A SURFACE THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N60W TO
26N73W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N66W TO 30N56W. A
SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE AND EXTENDS FROM
26N58W TO 20N62W AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N79W AND A SECOND
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH JUST W
OF THE AZORES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS
MORNING WITH A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE
AREA E OF 53W.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

Latest from Invest 99L:
10/1145 UTC 14.3N 24.5W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Gustywind]

Hi my carib friends
Hot but moist weather, before a deterioration this afternoon in Guadeloupe... with numerous strong showers due to a moderate twave crossing the islands