ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[CrazyC83]

Not sure what the real intensity is due to a large spread between data, ranging from T1.5 (SAB) to T3.2 (ADT). There is enough uncertainty IMO to keep it as a TD, although 30 kt is probably the best estimate. If only there was Recon out of Cape Verde!

[KWT]

Yeah I suspect its probably about 30kts now, or at least getting closer to that estimate.
Will be interesting to see whether this burst holds for any length of time.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I suspect its probably about 30kts now, or at least getting closer to that estimate.
Will be interesting to see whether this burst holds for any length of time.

If it can sustain itself for a few hours, maybe a tropical storm by morning. But unless a QuikSCAT or ASCAT pass reveals 35 kt winds, I'd keep it as a TD until then.

[Blown Away]

TAFB has a 60 mph TS in 3 days, heading closer and closer to the Hebert Box. Maybe is just the convection expanding, but it sure does look like there is a slight southerly component to TD2.

[tgenius]

TAFB has a 60 mph TS in 3 days, heading closer and closer to the Hebert Box. Maybe is just the convection expanding, but it sure does look like there is a slight southerly component to TD2.

I don't understand that picture.. it looks like theres two different projected lines one larger line and then a smaller one pointing to CONUS?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.

So I took a moment to review all the available data on this thing. My take is that it stays a TD and at most TS status moving west for the next several days. There is plenty of dry and and SAL ahead of TD #2 so that should also keep it at check. But the upper-level winds appear very favorable. So the track is generally west. Because it shouldn't deepen that much and certainly not into a hurricane over the new several days expect it to miss the said weakness around 55-60W and continue moving westward. I think it probably ends up becoming an open wave in the end with all attention on the wave to move off of Africa in the next day or so. In short, if I had to go on the record I think TD #2 should not be more than a possible rainmaker for the islands at this point with a low chance of becoming a significant system into the CONUS (i.e Florida) at this point. It could move through the Bahamas, Cuba/Hispaniola as a strong tropical wave with increased rain chances into Florida down the road.

[Gustywind]

Shear

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 AUG 2009 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 14:37:42 N Lon : 31:08:12 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -31.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[tgenius]

Ana is a little late to your birthday Luis... hopefully I have no presents for me a week from today for mine!

[RL3AO]

Just a thought. As the Atlantic is picking up and more and more people come here (many who don't know as many things about the tropics as others), I think we should take it easy with those ADT numbers. Especially posting them in large and bold font.

Some people might see that and think thats how strong the storm really is. They might not understand that ADT numbers can be way off, especially on systems with no eye.

[FrontRunner]

Give me a break.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Give me a break.

The ADT doesn't have a person doing quality control, and can be off.


Now, no idea how to actually perform a Dvorak intensity estimate, but TD #2 is looking much more organized the past few hours, and if I had to guess, it is a 35 or 40 knot storm.


But nobody pays me to guess.

[tgenius]

30 mins till 11pm advisory.. If I had to guess.. maybe 33 percent it gets upgraded?

[RL3AO]

30 mins till 11pm advisory.. If I had to guess.. maybe 33 percent it gets upgraded?

Probably not even that high. They will wait for visible images.

[rrm]

any chance this thing stays on a westward path and enters the western gulf of mexico?

[Blown Away]

I say Ana at 11pm and a slight shift S and W on days 4-5.

[clfenwi]

Not much reason to not wait until morning when you get 1. Some visual imagery, 2. Quikscat pass (at 0810Z according to the pass long on the NRL site).

[cpdaman]

Just a thought. As the Atlantic is picking up and more and more people come here (many who don't know as many things about the tropics as others), I think we should take it easy with those ADT numbers. Especially posting them in large and bold font.

Some people might see that and think thats how strong the storm really is. They might not understand that ADT numbers can be way off, especially on systems with no eye.

in all seriousness there are millions of people who get their weather from either TWC....the local news...radio....or accuweather

there are about what... a thousand that come here for that technical weather stuff when things ramp up....which is a very small fraction so i don't think it is necessary .....the bigger reason is that when a storm actually becomes something stronger and threatens the general public the numbers they will look at will be the NHC updates which are basic....we are weather geeks ...this is the place to post all the other data imo. Newbies can post question in a thread for answers and if anything we could dedicate a bit more attention toward answering those in a timely fashion.

TD 2 looking good IMO but i really can't tell much without a quikscat regarding the location of the low ....would gues it is toward east edge of deeper convection.

[tgenius]

30 mins till 11pm advisory.. If I had to guess.. maybe 33 percent it gets upgraded?

Probably not even that high. They will wait for visible images.

True.. just that they are waiting a bit for 11pm.. usually comes in a lil early that far out.

[expat2carib]

At night most people are sleeping

Why come out with something "new" until the first visionary and the Quikscat?

Let's wait with "this one" untill tomorrow morning. Nothing fast happening here. Wait and be patient........................ Uhhhh.... Sleepy. See you tomorrow.