Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

:bdaysong to superman.

@Gusty. I just sent you a PM. Nothing important. Here on Dominica we only had some showers. Nothing really to report.

I'm on my way to St. Maarten/St. Martin tomorrow. So NO hurricanes. COMPRENDE!

Last time I was in Simpson Bay on St. maarten when Omar passed. No BIG problems there.... so I called my wife the day after to tell here I was OK......... Then she told me that -even that the eye went over St. Maarten hundreds of miles away- she was completely isolated and that the whole - and only road out of the village- was washed away. No electricity.... Nothing.

Ana is not going to be that evil......

Thanks for the congrats.

[Gustywind]

It's time to give my body to Morpheus tkanks all my carib friends islanders. One word be vigilant, this season is showing signs of activity, not boiling but we could have surprises in store... don't let our guard down and looking to our east!
Cycloneye have a good night, hope you sincerely the very best for your birthday, it's always a pleasure to have friendly links on this board in the TENT. Be happy all, life is so precious...

Gustywind

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THE PUNTA SALINAS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO BE AFFECTED BY AN ELONGATED
WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE IS POISED TO MOVE
ACROSS USVI AND PR LATER TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL BECOME LOCALLY
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DUE TO SEA
BREEZE EFFECTS. THIS FIRST PERIOD OF WEATHER IS TO BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF MOISTURE TRAVELING AHEAD OF NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST. THIS SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO START
IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND EXIT WEST PUERTO RICO
FRIDAY MORNING. MAIN IMPACTS OF THE WAVE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS. WAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS INDUCED BY UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST OVER HISPANIOLA. DRIER AIR IS TO SLIDE BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ON SATURDAY THE NORMAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FOLLOWS NEXT AND WE SHOULD MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM TPC/NHC ON THIS
SYSTEM.

ANOTHER LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING BEHIND TROPICAL DEP 2 AND WE
SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS SINCE GFS IS INDICATING POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE CHANCE THAT IT MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. KEPT MAX SURFACE
WINDS AT 25 KNOTS FOR GRIDS FOR DAY 7 AND 8 PERIOD. A REMINDER...IT
IS AUGUST AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY A TIME WHEN THE TROPICS BECOME MORE
ACTIVE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS...MARINERS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO
MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY...AS WE APPROACH THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.


Good morning to all the Caribbean friends.Wave interacting with trough will trigger a rainy next couple of days in the region.Watching TD 2 and wave off Africa.

[Gustywind]

Hi my carib friends, hope you're in shape because i'm glad to meet you every morning
I know that things are heating up with TD 2 and a wave to emerge Africa is looking suspicious...
Here is a view of the Lesser Antilles:

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 120824
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
424 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AND THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO MOVE
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...
NEARING 56 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS TODAY...WITH PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS.

$$

[Gustywind]

LOOP OF THE AREAS OF CYCLOGENESIS





LOOKING AT AFRICA



Amazing wave, should i call it MONSTER WAVE :oops:


Moisture in good amount...



Pretty robust twave is an euphemisma

[Gustywind]

Tropical Depressions in Atlantic, Pacific
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 12, 2009 6:16 am ET

ATLANTIC

Tropical Depression 2 (35 mile per hour winds) continues to become better organized. It is located about 535 miles west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.

The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, in which case it would be named Ana. It will head through the open Atlantic the next 5 days with no threat to land.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave located about 420 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is producing only a few showers and thunderstorms. This area will be monitored and some slow development could occur if shower and thunderstorm activity becomes more persistent and better organized. For now, expect some showers in the northern and central Antilles in a few days.

Another tropical wave and an associated weak low pressure is passing through the southeastern Caribbean Sea. No development is expected, but some showers are possible along the northern coast of South America and the islands in the southern Caribbean.

East of T.D. 2, an area of low pressure is emerging from the African Coast in the next 24 hours. This system will also be monitored for possible development.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 420 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS MINIMAL.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 32.4W OR ABOUT 535
MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 12/0900 UTC
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE W
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 33W-36W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT ENCOMPASSES
THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO THE W IN THE E CARIBBEAN AS OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-17N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM ALONG 65W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE THAT
ENCOMPASSES THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO THE W IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE WAVE
AXIS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE ELY TRADES AS WELL
AS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THUS THE WAVE AXIS IS
BASED ON CONTINUITY AND IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 11N21W 12N27W...THEN
13N37W 11N48W 14N55W 12N62W THEN OVER NE VENEZUELA TO OVER
COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. JUST OF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA IS BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT
COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-19N BETWEEN 18W-23W...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
26W-36W.
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION ACROSS EXTENDING NE ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR ALSO DOMINATES THE GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E
OF 93W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO 28N85W ENHANCING THE ABOVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N90W
TO 18N93W GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-96W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A WEAK
1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
16N81W. MOIST SLY UPPER FLOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
S OF 19N W OF 85W AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA N
OF 16N W OF 72W. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN REGION E OF 80W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE THE W ATLC N OF 22N W OF 60W
COVERING THE BAHAMAS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 30N71W AND A
SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N73W WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
SUPPRESSING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY ARE BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES
OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 57W-63W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 26N56W.

$$
WALLACE

[Gustywind]

TD 2

000
WTNT32 KNHC 120832
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST OR ABOUT 535
MILES...860 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 32.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 120832
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 32.4W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 32.4W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 31.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.6N 34.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.6N 36.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.6N 38.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.0N 41.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 32.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 120835
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...ALTHOUGH
RECENTLY THIS CLUSTER HAS TAKEN ON A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED APPEARANCE.
MICROWAVE AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER REMAINS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AND NOT WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT
THAT VALUE.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
THE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
COULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. ALTHOUGH
THE HWRF/BAMD MODELS SHOW A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST ONLY A GRADUAL BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A HIGH BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN
THE FIRST FEW DAYS...BUT ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. IN
GENERAL...THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING...
THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF SOME DRIER/STABLE AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE DEPRESSION MAY PLAY AN INHIBITING ROLE. THE STATISTICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A LOW-END
TROPICAL STORM. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BASICALLY SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE OUTCOMES AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE. IN THE LONGER-TERM...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 14.6N 32.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 14.6N 34.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.6N 36.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 14.6N 38.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 41.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 15/0600Z 16.5N 46.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 16/0600Z 19.0N 52.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 17/0600Z 22.5N 58.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A
LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 300 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[msbee]

Good morning, members of the "tent"

this was posted this morning on stormcarib by a weather correspondent from Antigua.
That second wave? the monster wave?
the web site he posted makes it look very dangerous for us in the Caribbean.

TD #3 ???

* From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 07:58:22 -0400

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS SITE





http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... tla_height



INTERESTING, BUT RATHER WORRYING

[Gustywind]

Good morning, members of the "tent"

this was posted this morning on stormcarib by a weather correspondent from Antigua.
That second wave? the monster wave?
the web site he posted makes it look very dangerous for us in the Caribbean.

TD #3 ???

* From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 07:58:22 -0400

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS SITE





http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... tla_height



INTERESTING, BUT RATHER WORRYING

Waouw, pretty "interresting" Msbee , worrying is an euphemisma , insane for the Leewards seems that Guadeloupe, Antigua and especially the Northern Leewards are directly impacted . Just predictions hope they won't verifie whereas, it's a very nice site, tkanks Barbara good catch .

[expat2carib]

Good morning, members of the "tent"

this was posted this morning on stormcarib by a weather correspondent from Antigua.
That second wave? the monster wave?
the web site he posted makes it look very dangerous for us in the Caribbean.

TD #3 ???

* From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 07:58:22 -0400

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS SITE





http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... tla_height



INTERESTING, BUT RATHER WORRYING

OHHhh...ohhhhhh Bad scenario. Let's hope it becomes a fish.

[Gustywind]

Good morning, members of the "tent"

this was posted this morning on stormcarib by a weather correspondent from Antigua.
That second wave? the monster wave?
the web site he posted makes it look very dangerous for us in the Caribbean.

TD #3 ???

* From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 07:58:22 -0400

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS SITE





http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... tla_height



INTERESTING, BUT RATHER WORRYING

OHHhh...ohhhhhh Bad scenario. Let's hope it becomes a fish.

Yeah i saw that this morning but seems that things given the models are somewhat heating up, but as you said hope it becomes a fish

[Gustywind]

Does not looking good...

[msbee]

from stormcarib.

TROPICAL WEATHER HEATING UP

* From: "Steve Donahue" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 08:38:03 -0400

There are 4 systems out in the Atlantic, but 2 just to the east won’t affect us, Tropical Depression #2 way to the east may develop but is currently tracking well to our north…AND a system that is just moving off the African coast that right now needs to be watched closely. Unlike TD2 that came off too far north to concern us, this system is further south, and will probably become an Invest storm today – all conditions are favorable for development. Several models show this system as developing quickly into a hurricane, and heading in our direction. Based on these same models, it could be here mid-week next week. Wave swell forecasts show 20 – 25 foot swells from the southeast starting late next Tuesday. This system needs to be watched – especially later this week, when we will know more. See details at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml . Note in the forecast “…less than 30% chance of becoming a hurricane in 48 hours”. This has to do with the storm just forming, NOT with the future possibility of developing long term.



But let’s hope that one or 2 of these systems brings us some much needed rain! Cheers,



Steve Donahue

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Websites – http://www.anguilla-weather.com & http://www.anguilla-diving.com

[Gustywind]

from stormcarib.

TROPICAL WEATHER HEATING UP

* From: "Steve Donahue" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 08:38:03 -0400

There are 4 systems out in the Atlantic, but 2 just to the east won’t affect us, Tropical Depression #2 way to the east may develop but is currently tracking well to our north…AND a system that is just moving off the African coast that right now needs to be watched closely. Unlike TD2 that came off too far north to concern us, this system is further south, and will probably become an Invest storm today – all conditions are favorable for development. Several models show this system as developing quickly into a hurricane, and heading in our direction. Based on these same models, it could be here mid-week next week. Wave swell forecasts show 20 – 25 foot swells from the southeast starting late next Tuesday. This system needs to be watched – especially later this week, when we will know more. See details at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml . Note in the forecast “…less than 30% chance of becoming a hurricane in 48 hours”. This has to do with the storm just forming, NOT with the future possibility of developing long term.



But let’s hope that one or 2 of these systems brings us some much needed rain! Cheers,



Steve Donahue

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Websites – http://www.anguilla-weather.com & http://www.anguilla-diving.com

Another worrying prediction, just prediction but tkanks msbee we appreciate your nice infos as usual and that's the "good news" .