Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W OR ABOUT
885 MILES...1425 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 13/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WWD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WNW AND AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 38W-39W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 22N NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N22W. A LARGE AREA
OF MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.
PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-15N
BETWEEN 17W-30W. THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 68W-72W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 63W-66W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT.
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S HOWEVER OVER THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 11N26W 14N36W 9N46W
12N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA AT 31N83W TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AT 27N90W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 82W-87W. 15 MINUTE LIGHTNING
DATA SHOWS FREQUENT LIGHTNING S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. OUTSIDE
AREAS OF CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO VARIABLE ACROSS
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE NE GULF N OF 23N. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE
GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N84W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER S
MEXICO CENTERED AT 18N104W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER HAITI NEAR 20N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W TO 27N75W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES
AT 39N27W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N63W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N45W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
NEAR 21N22W. EXPECT THE SPECIAL FEATURES TO BE THE DOMINATE
FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA

Hey that's "funny" about 90L the TWO is mentionning code red meaning: A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, while the TWD is mentionning THERE IS A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.
Just a remark...

[FireBird]

Hi again MsBee, I was born and raised in Trinidad, and I live in the Diego Martin valley in the NW.
Just to update on the weather, we've had rain here for the past couple hours, and like you, this causes flooding in low-lying areas. Persons are still reeling from flood-damaged homes caused by an active wave/ ITCZ last week. And with winds down to a near standstill here, I wonder whether the path of development this year will see storms maintaining a low-latitude westerly track.
I guess we'll have to wait and see. In the meantime, I'll have a busy weekend tying up the loose ends around the house....

[Gustywind]

Anyone noticied that? Cycloneye do you noticied that?
Just a mistake or...?

[Gustywind]

INVEST 90 L

Moisture atmosphere envelopping this little baby


Muscled appareance continues to exhibit a huge size:eek:

[msbee]

that is funny Gusty
and where is Cycloneye?
had he posted at all today?
hope he is OK after the wave passed through PR

[Gustywind]

that is funny Gusty
and where is Cycloneye?
had he posted at all today?
hope he is OK after the wave passed through PR

LOL very funny, hopefully this thing is not a cane 30 kms east of the Leewards i won't joke .
He has posted only this morning on this thread, but i see him on the others threads, so tkink he's OK Whereas i pose this same question in the Thread about 90L.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
159 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND TPW IMAGERY
SUGGEST DRIER AIR FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW
OVER THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS PROBABLY
OVER THE MONA CHANNEL BY NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER IN FOR THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY DIURNALLY
FORCED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LONGER TERM TROPICAL SITUATION WHICH
REMAINS VERY UNCLEAR AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. LATEST NHC ADVISORIES
AND DISCUSSION HAVE DOWNPLAYED TD 2 INTO A WEAK SYSTEM...AND
KEEPING IT AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS
SEEMINGLY GOOD NEWS...IT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE GOOD NEWS
REMAINS THAT A DEEP SAL LAYER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE
IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TRACK COULD
MEAN A MUCH CLOSER TRACK TO THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD THE SYSTEM
SURVIVE THE DRY AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH LARGE VARIABILITY IN
THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE...WILL TREND TOWARD ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY.

THE MAIN STORY STILL REMAINS THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF
AFRICA...WHICH HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT TO A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS...TAKING THE SYSTEM NE OF THE VI AND
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...GFS STILL TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER THE
ISLAND AND HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTIONS.
DEFINITELY CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON.



Here I am Gusty. I was just out buying some things preparing for next week.

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
159 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND TPW IMAGERY
SUGGEST DRIER AIR FROM THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW
OVER THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS PROBABLY
OVER THE MONA CHANNEL BY NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. THIS
WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIR TO FILTER IN FOR THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY DIURNALLY
FORCED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE LONGER TERM TROPICAL SITUATION WHICH
REMAINS VERY UNCLEAR AT THE CURRENT MOMENT. LATEST NHC ADVISORIES
AND DISCUSSION HAVE DOWNPLAYED TD 2 INTO A WEAK SYSTEM...AND
KEEPING IT AS SUCH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS IS
SEEMINGLY GOOD NEWS...IT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK...PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE GOOD NEWS
REMAINS THAT A DEEP SAL LAYER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE
IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SOUTHERLY TRACK COULD
MEAN A MUCH CLOSER TRACK TO THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD THE SYSTEM
SURVIVE THE DRY AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH LARGE VARIABILITY IN
THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE...WILL TREND TOWARD ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR
MONDAY.

THE MAIN STORY STILL REMAINS THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF OF
AFRICA...WHICH HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO POINT TO A TRACK
JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS...TAKING THE SYSTEM NE OF THE VI AND
PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...GFS STILL TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER THE
ISLAND AND HAS REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN ITS SOLUTIONS.
DEFINITELY CONTINUING TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON.



Here I am Gusty. I was just out buying some things preparing for next week.

LOL Superman, this guy was in action doing some shopping...humm preparing for next week sure? 90L ?don't tell me... i say nothing hope i'm wrong. Ok you're here that's the good news, always looking to our east...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

WTNT02 KNGU 131900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131900Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 23.3W TO 12.9N 30.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 23.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM 24 TO 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
SYSTEM ARE EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER WINDS ARE DECREASING
WEST OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 141900Z.//

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory

498
WTNT32 KNHC 132041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

...DEPRESSION HAS DECAYED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 930 MILES...1500 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THE
REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.2N 38.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

However,lets continue to watch it as the tropics are full of surprises many times and it can regenerate again.

[cycloneye]

Image of the big wave.Good night to all.

[Gustywind]

Looking very carefully to our east...[/b][b]000

AWCA82 TJSJ 140242
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1042 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. NO SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AT LEAST FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 26 MPH WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SO FAR TONIGHT.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BRING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE...FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
AND STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS PROJECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[b]TD 2 died, but 90L continues to be on hot spot...[/b]000

AXNT20 KNHC 140005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS WEAKENED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
IS NEAR 14.2N 38.3W...OR ABOUT 930 MILES/1500 KM TO THE WEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WESTWARD 7 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC BULLETIN UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 15N39W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY FORM WITH THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N70W 15N70W 3N67W IN
SOUTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17.5N TO 20N BETWEEN
68W AND 70W...ON TOP OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION ALSO HAS STARTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN HALF OF
HAITI.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS RIGHT UP AGAINST THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...

16N16W 11N25W 14N36W 9N47W 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 35W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 6N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
AND U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE CENTRAL PART NORTHWARD.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HOVER AROUND WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEST CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH
A THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W. THE STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE AT THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW...ATTRIBUTED MORE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS IN THAT AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN EASTERN CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
10N74.5W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN PANAMA
TO SOUTHERN COSTA RICA ARE NEAR THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 27N45W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 22N50W 19N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS...SOME HAVE DISSIPATED ALREADY LEAVING REMNANT CLOUDS...
FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 68W IS AROUND THE
24N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 17N40W 10N43W...AT THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION
THAT IS AROUND THE REMNANT OF T.D. TWO.

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Ex TD 2 is not finisheed and 90L is almost a TD this morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 AM AST FRI AUG 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
PRODUCING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED THIS AREA JUST
ARRIVED TO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. A LINE OF MOISTURE IS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 40 WEST
LONGITUDE...WHICH ARE THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO..IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST SJU-GFS PROG
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW VALUES INCREASING TO 2.0 INCHES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...IN THE LONG TERM...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZE. THE NHC GIVES A HIGH
CHANCE...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...WE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...AND THIS IS THE PERFECT
TIME TO GO OVER YOUR SEASONAL PLANS AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE READY.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all.Ex TD 2 is not finisheed and 90L is almost a TD this morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 AM AST FRI AUG 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...
PRODUCING A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
LATEST MIMIC TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED THIS AREA JUST
ARRIVED TO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. A LINE OF MOISTURE IS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE WILL BE THE MAIN RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 40 WEST
LONGITUDE...WHICH ARE THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO..IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST SJU-GFS PROG
SOUNDINGS SHOWED PW VALUES INCREASING TO 2.0 INCHES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...IN THE LONG TERM...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZE. THE NHC GIVES A HIGH
CHANCE...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY IF THIS SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...WE ARE RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON...AND THIS IS THE PERFECT
TIME TO GO OVER YOUR SEASONAL PLANS AND MAKE SURE YOU ARE READY.

things are heating up...

[Gustywind]

Hi my carib friends. Seems that the two systems to our east continues their races on the Atlantic Ocean...

Here is the sat/pic of the Lesser Antilles...

[cycloneye]

T

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR
14.4N 40.2W OR ABOUT 1375 MILES E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING
W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 40W-43W.
SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THE SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 8 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT 0720 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES
A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N26W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 26W-30W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

[Gustywind]

LOOKING AT AFRICA

90 L, Looking good and pretty healthy...

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140553
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 1375 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN