Hey Luis, did you feel the earthaquake north of your island? Are you ok? No damges to report near your location? Read the latest paragrah, the note at end of the weather forecast...Nothing here in Guadeloupe:)
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 141010
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST FRI AUG 14 2009
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS PASSED NEARBY...RAIN WAS NOT NOTED AT
EITHER OF THE OBSERVING STATIONS ON SAINT THOMAS OR SAINT CROIX.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 80S TO THE MID 70S. WINDS WERE
EASTERLY OR EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS OF 22 TO 24 MPH
WERE OBSERVED AROUND 3 AM AT BOTH AIRPORTS AND LOWS WERE 81
DEGREES.
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND REDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE AREA. A FEW STREAMERS MAY BE GENERATED DURING THE AFTERNOON
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE...FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY. ANOTHER AND STRONGER
TROPICAL WAVE IS PROJECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND HAS BEEN GIVEN A BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THIS SUNDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
A LATE NOTE: AN EARTHQUAKE OF PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 4.6
OCCURRED AT 5:48 AM AST 75 MILES NORTH OF FAJARDO PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH IT WAS FELT IN PUERTO RICO THIS QUAKE WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A TSUNAMI OR CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HERE OR
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
$$
Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
I wonder when our good friend Derek Ott is going to start making some comments on Invest 90.
is it too early?
what do you think of this discussion from Rob at crownweather.com
Invest 90L Located South-Southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands:
I am closely monitoring Invest 90L, which is located about 175 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Convection has increased overnight and some nice banding has also developed around 90L. All of the latest forecast guidance continues to forecast significant intensification over the next few days. Based on the satellite appearance this morning, I suspect that 90L will be upgraded to a tropical depression either sometime today or at the latest on Saturday.
The overall track model guidance is forecasting a due west course over the next couple of days with a turn more to the west-northwest by early next week. The track model guidance are all in agreement that 90L poses a threat to the northeastern Caribbean, especially the Lesser Antilles from the islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica and points north and west on Wednesday or Thursday. It should be noted that the GFDL model is forecasting a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday morning and the HWRF model is forecasting that 90L may be a Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning.
As for the global models, the GFS model is forecasting an eventual track into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend (Weekend of August 22) after raking the Lesser and Greater Antilles late next week. The European model on the other hand forecasts that 90L will curve into the open Atlantic near 55 West Longitude and miss the Antilles altogether. One thing to note about the European model runs is that it is forecasting that 90L will be near 13 North, 37 West on Sunday night and it is near 28 West right now. So, basically I think the Euro is too slow in its forecast track of 90L and I am discounting the curve out into the open Atlantic near 55 to 60 West Longitude.
So, the idea of a nearly due west track over the next 3 to 4 days seems reasonable given the strength of the high pressure system to the north. After that, a turn a little more to the west-northwest is possible. As for strength, steady strengthening is likely over the next several days and I suspect that this will be classified as a depression within the next 24 to at most 36 hours and then a tropical storm (Ana?) by sometime on Sunday or Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday at the very latest. I expect 90L/Ana to be a major threat to the eastern and especially northeastern Caribbean by Wednesday or Thursday. All interests in the Caribbean Islands, especially from Guadeloupe and Dominica and points north and west should start getting yourselves ready for this potential hurricane around the middle of next week.
Beyond that, it is still way too early to tell exactly where or even if this potential major hurricane will be a threat to the United States. The forecast guidance is still forecasting that a trough of low pressure will be in place over the eastern United States in the day 6 to 10 time period, so Invest 90L/Ana may be pulled northwestward towards the United States. Therefore, this system has the potential to threaten the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida and the East Coast. So, anyone with a vested interest in these areas should keep very close tabs on the progress of this system as it has the potential to make headlines over the next 10 days or so.
is it too early?
what do you think of this discussion from Rob at crownweather.com
Invest 90L Located South-Southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands:
I am closely monitoring Invest 90L, which is located about 175 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Convection has increased overnight and some nice banding has also developed around 90L. All of the latest forecast guidance continues to forecast significant intensification over the next few days. Based on the satellite appearance this morning, I suspect that 90L will be upgraded to a tropical depression either sometime today or at the latest on Saturday.
The overall track model guidance is forecasting a due west course over the next couple of days with a turn more to the west-northwest by early next week. The track model guidance are all in agreement that 90L poses a threat to the northeastern Caribbean, especially the Lesser Antilles from the islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica and points north and west on Wednesday or Thursday. It should be noted that the GFDL model is forecasting a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday morning and the HWRF model is forecasting that 90L may be a Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning.
As for the global models, the GFS model is forecasting an eventual track into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend (Weekend of August 22) after raking the Lesser and Greater Antilles late next week. The European model on the other hand forecasts that 90L will curve into the open Atlantic near 55 West Longitude and miss the Antilles altogether. One thing to note about the European model runs is that it is forecasting that 90L will be near 13 North, 37 West on Sunday night and it is near 28 West right now. So, basically I think the Euro is too slow in its forecast track of 90L and I am discounting the curve out into the open Atlantic near 55 to 60 West Longitude.
So, the idea of a nearly due west track over the next 3 to 4 days seems reasonable given the strength of the high pressure system to the north. After that, a turn a little more to the west-northwest is possible. As for strength, steady strengthening is likely over the next several days and I suspect that this will be classified as a depression within the next 24 to at most 36 hours and then a tropical storm (Ana?) by sometime on Sunday or Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday at the very latest. I expect 90L/Ana to be a major threat to the eastern and especially northeastern Caribbean by Wednesday or Thursday. All interests in the Caribbean Islands, especially from Guadeloupe and Dominica and points north and west should start getting yourselves ready for this potential hurricane around the middle of next week.
Beyond that, it is still way too early to tell exactly where or even if this potential major hurricane will be a threat to the United States. The forecast guidance is still forecasting that a trough of low pressure will be in place over the eastern United States in the day 6 to 10 time period, so Invest 90L/Ana may be pulled northwestward towards the United States. Therefore, this system has the potential to threaten the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida and the East Coast. So, anyone with a vested interest in these areas should keep very close tabs on the progress of this system as it has the potential to make headlines over the next 10 days or so.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:I wonder when our good friend Derek Ott is going to start making some comments on Invest 90.
is it too early?
what do you think of this discussion from Rob at crownweather.com
Invest 90L Located South-Southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands:
I am closely monitoring Invest 90L, which is located about 175 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Convection has increased overnight and some nice banding has also developed around 90L. All of the latest forecast guidance continues to forecast significant intensification over the next few days. Based on the satellite appearance this morning, I suspect that 90L will be upgraded to a tropical depression either sometime today or at the latest on Saturday.
The overall track model guidance is forecasting a due west course over the next couple of days with a turn more to the west-northwest by early next week. The track model guidance are all in agreement that 90L poses a threat to the northeastern Caribbean, especially the Lesser Antilles from the islands of Guadeloupe and Dominica and points north and west on Wednesday or Thursday. It should be noted that the GFDL model is forecasting a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday morning and the HWRF model is forecasting that 90L may be a Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning.
As for the global models, the GFS model is forecasting an eventual track into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend (Weekend of August 22) after raking the Lesser and Greater Antilles late next week. The European model on the other hand forecasts that 90L will curve into the open Atlantic near 55 West Longitude and miss the Antilles altogether. One thing to note about the European model runs is that it is forecasting that 90L will be near 13 North, 37 West on Sunday night and it is near 28 West right now. So, basically I think the Euro is too slow in its forecast track of 90L and I am discounting the curve out into the open Atlantic near 55 to 60 West Longitude.
So, the idea of a nearly due west track over the next 3 to 4 days seems reasonable given the strength of the high pressure system to the north. After that, a turn a little more to the west-northwest is possible. As for strength, steady strengthening is likely over the next several days and I suspect that this will be classified as a depression within the next 24 to at most 36 hours and then a tropical storm (Ana?) by sometime on Sunday or Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday at the very latest. I expect 90L/Ana to be a major threat to the eastern and especially northeastern Caribbean by Wednesday or Thursday. All interests in the Caribbean Islands, especially from Guadeloupe and Dominica and points north and west should start getting yourselves ready for this potential hurricane around the middle of next week.
Beyond that, it is still way too early to tell exactly where or even if this potential major hurricane will be a threat to the United States. The forecast guidance is still forecasting that a trough of low pressure will be in place over the eastern United States in the day 6 to 10 time period, so Invest 90L/Ana may be pulled northwestward towards the United States. Therefore, this system has the potential to threaten the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida and the East Coast. So, anyone with a vested interest in these areas should keep very close tabs on the progress of this system as it has the potential to make headlines over the next 10 days or so.
Waouw
the Leewards and the Northern Leewards including PR should continue to monitor very closely 90L given this prediction. Let's wait and see... 
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
From a correspondant of Stormcarib 
http://www.stormcarib.com/
14 Aug 2009 12:55:30 -0000 - Active
Good morning,
I haven't had much opportunity to study the Atlantic this morning but what I do know is the remnants of TD#2 will pass close by early next week with some possibilities of regeneration while a Cat 2, maybe 3 will be close by probably Thursday. Most computer and wave models have this system spinning uncomfortable close to the northern Antilles and conditions are ripe for some explosive growth after the system crosses 50W. Again, if it strengthens rapidly, it would probably recurve to the north missing the islands but the longer it takes to get organized, the better it's chances of staying south heading west and end up on our doorstep.
If you aren't prepared yet or at least thinking of it, I suggest the time is act is this weekend. I'll have more tomorrow.
Dave
http://www.stormcarib.com/14 Aug 2009 12:55:30 -0000 - Active
Good morning,
I haven't had much opportunity to study the Atlantic this morning but what I do know is the remnants of TD#2 will pass close by early next week with some possibilities of regeneration while a Cat 2, maybe 3 will be close by probably Thursday. Most computer and wave models have this system spinning uncomfortable close to the northern Antilles and conditions are ripe for some explosive growth after the system crosses 50W. Again, if it strengthens rapidly, it would probably recurve to the north missing the islands but the longer it takes to get organized, the better it's chances of staying south heading west and end up on our doorstep.
If you aren't prepared yet or at least thinking of it, I suggest the time is act is this weekend. I'll have more tomorrow.
Dave
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Another correspondant from Stormcarib seems to feel something...
(no subject)
From: SWhite3726 at aol.com
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:58:21 EDT
Ok all,
I have had two days where I could have rum on the beach and of course, it was good! If you follow me then as you know I am not a serious weather forecaster/spotter and only moved to St Lucia 10months ago. I try to follow all those fantastic technological images from satellites and stuff and think that obviously they know way more than I do, but, and I don't know, maybe that is a big BUT!
There is something wrong afoot with the weather here. The skies are clear, the horizon hasn't been this clear for soooooooooo long, calm seas, balmy breeze etc. Although, its not like in the dry season when the weather does this. ~It just has a feel about it, that I have never come across before, the wind has dropped, (a good informant said that can be a bad sign!), and I don't know, but somehow it feels like something is coming. I do so hope I am wrong, and of course mine is about instinct, NOTHING more, but what the hec, I am getting prepared just in case, and is that a bad thing? Am off to buy plywood tomorrow, and if its nothing, well, that's no big deal, I will use it eventually! Two apartments to build after all!
Everyone take care, remember I only speak on what I can see/feel!
Tracy
(no subject)
From: SWhite3726 at aol.com
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:58:21 EDT
Ok all,
I have had two days where I could have rum on the beach and of course, it was good! If you follow me then as you know I am not a serious weather forecaster/spotter and only moved to St Lucia 10months ago. I try to follow all those fantastic technological images from satellites and stuff and think that obviously they know way more than I do, but, and I don't know, maybe that is a big BUT!
There is something wrong afoot with the weather here. The skies are clear, the horizon hasn't been this clear for soooooooooo long, calm seas, balmy breeze etc. Although, its not like in the dry season when the weather does this. ~It just has a feel about it, that I have never come across before, the wind has dropped, (a good informant said that can be a bad sign!), and I don't know, but somehow it feels like something is coming. I do so hope I am wrong, and of course mine is about instinct, NOTHING more, but what the hec, I am getting prepared just in case, and is that a bad thing? Am off to buy plywood tomorrow, and if its nothing, well, that's no big deal, I will use it eventually! Two apartments to build after all!
Everyone take care, remember I only speak on what I can see/feel!
Tracy
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
cycloneye wrote:No Gusty,I didnt felt it.
What Luis?
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
HUC wrote:For me,i felt when it felt...
Look at ex TD 2...seems to reorganised quikly!!!!
Absolutely HUC you're right let's have a close eye on it as this thing is approaching the Lesser Antilles ...
[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
Showing improvement, HUC, look at that ball of convection popping tremendously...
SAL shoud not be an issue...even if some small pockets are doting the area to its north and ahead...
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=not me ).-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Looks like more typical for an August month...000
ABNT20 KNHC 141737
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
[size=150]SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA
NORTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN[/size]
ABNT20 KNHC 141737
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
[size=150]SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR
15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA
NORTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN[/size]
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
I brought some web cams from Puerto Rico that are now posted at first post of thread.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Looking very closely to our east as ex TD2 is showing signs of regeneration and 90L is organizing steadily...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141731
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
[size=150]THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR
14.6N 41.7W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 42W-44W.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12.1N
26.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-32W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.[/size]
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE S BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-23N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS ALSO BROKEN AWAY FROM THIS
WAVE AND IS NOW NEAR THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 28N74W TO 25N76W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN
71W-74W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N30W 15N42W 10N50W
11N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
12W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 23W-32W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 52W-62W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO
THE NE GULF AT 27N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-85W. 15 MINUTE LIGHTNING
DATA SHOWS FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITHIN 150 NM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE N GULF N OF
24N E OF 94W. OUTSIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO VARIABLE ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER S MEXICO CENTERED AT 17N95W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE NE
GULF AND N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL
PRECIPITATION TO ADVECT OVER E CUBA AND S FLORIDA DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 76W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM THE SEA OF MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO 25N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N34W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N62W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N30W.
EXPECT THE
SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WAVE TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
MRF/RFB
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141731
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
[size=150]THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR
14.6N 41.7W E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM
14N-16N BETWEEN 42W-44W.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12.1N
26.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE CENTER FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 28W-32W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.[/size]
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE S BAHAMAS AND E CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES LOW-LEVEL INVERTED-V FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-23N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS ALSO BROKEN AWAY FROM THIS
WAVE AND IS NOW NEAR THE N BAHAMAS ALONG 28N74W TO 25N76W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN
71W-74W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N30W 15N42W 10N50W
11N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN
12W-17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 23W-32W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 52W-62W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO
THE NE GULF AT 27N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 82W-85W. 15 MINUTE LIGHTNING
DATA SHOWS FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITHIN 150 NM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE N GULF N OF
24N E OF 94W. OUTSIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO VARIABLE ACROSS THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER S MEXICO CENTERED AT 17N95W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE NE
GULF AND N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL
PRECIPITATION TO ADVECT OVER E CUBA AND S FLORIDA DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY ALONG 76W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM THE SEA OF MARACAIBO VENEZUELA TO COSTA RICA FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 71W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR
15N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N60W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO 25N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N34W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N73W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N62W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N30W.
EXPECT THE
SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WAVE TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
MRF/RFB
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
cycloneye wrote:I brought some web cams from Puerto Rico that are now posted at first post of thread.
Good news for all the carib islanders, tkanks LUIS
.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141914
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST FRI AUG 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF TUTT LOWS ARE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH
ONE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND
ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND GET ABSORBED BY A POLAR TROUGH
OVR THE NCNTRL ATLC. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CNTRL ATLC THREATEN TO BECOME THE FIRST AND SECOND NAMED STORMS OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EXCELLENT WEEKEND TO GO OVER YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AS
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND STABLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL DURING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD2 IS ATTEMPTING A COMEBACK AROUND
THE REMNANT LOW PRES. NHC/HPC NOON COORDINATION CALL KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A OPEN WAVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN PREDICTING STORM STRUCTURE
THREE DAYS IN ADVANCE AND SYSTEMS THIS SMALL ARE SUBJECT TO RAPID
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY EITHER UP OR DOWN. WITH THIS IN MIND WE
SHOULD ALL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS PWATS AROUND 2.6 INCHES OR AROUND 145% OF NORMAL IN
THAT AREA. IF THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CONVECTION OVR
THE WEEKEND IT COULD PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS TO PR AND THE USVI.
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRES IS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WSW OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED WITH THE CENTER TO THE EAST OF
THE CONVECTION. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SAHARAN AIR BEING SUCKED
INTO THE CIRCULATION WHICH IS RETARDING ITS DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIKE THIS STORM FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND NHC
IS GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HRS. GFS MODEL HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST THREE DAYS TAKING THIS SYSTEM OVR PUERTO RICO ON THU. 12Z
GFDL HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK ABT 2 DEGS SOUTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND IS ALSO FASTER BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE GFS. 12Z NOGAPS
AND CMC GLOBAL HAVE ALSO SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO PR AND THE
NEW 12Z ECWMF ALTHOUGH IS STILL SHOWS RECURVATURE HAS TRENDED TO
LEFT TOO. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON A TRACK
CLOSE TO PR...USERS ARE REMINDED THAT TRACK FCSTS SIX DAYS OUT
ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. TYPICAL ERRORS THIS FAR OUT ARE IN
THE ORDER OF 350 NM. UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS A LOW LVL CENTER WELL
ESTABLISHED DO NOT EXPECT THE MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON IT.
RESIDENTS OF PR AND THE USVI ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AND
GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS IN CASE THE THREAT FROM
THESE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS BECOMES MORE REAL.
FXCA62 TJSJ 141914
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST FRI AUG 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF TUTT LOWS ARE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH
ONE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND
ANOTHER ONE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND GET ABSORBED BY A POLAR TROUGH
OVR THE NCNTRL ATLC. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY NORTH OF
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CNTRL ATLC THREATEN TO BECOME THE FIRST AND SECOND NAMED STORMS OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EXCELLENT WEEKEND TO GO OVER YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AS
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND STABLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL DURING THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD2 IS ATTEMPTING A COMEBACK AROUND
THE REMNANT LOW PRES. NHC/HPC NOON COORDINATION CALL KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A OPEN WAVE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN PREDICTING STORM STRUCTURE
THREE DAYS IN ADVANCE AND SYSTEMS THIS SMALL ARE SUBJECT TO RAPID
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY EITHER UP OR DOWN. WITH THIS IN MIND WE
SHOULD ALL KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR ANY UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. TPW
IMAGERY SHOWS PWATS AROUND 2.6 INCHES OR AROUND 145% OF NORMAL IN
THAT AREA. IF THE SYSTEM IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CONVECTION OVR
THE WEEKEND IT COULD PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS TO PR AND THE USVI.
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRES IS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WSW OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED WITH THE CENTER TO THE EAST OF
THE CONVECTION. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SAHARAN AIR BEING SUCKED
INTO THE CIRCULATION WHICH IS RETARDING ITS DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO LIKE THIS STORM FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND NHC
IS GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HRS. GFS MODEL HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST THREE DAYS TAKING THIS SYSTEM OVR PUERTO RICO ON THU. 12Z
GFDL HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK ABT 2 DEGS SOUTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND IS ALSO FASTER BRINGING IT IN LINE WITH THE GFS. 12Z NOGAPS
AND CMC GLOBAL HAVE ALSO SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO PR AND THE
NEW 12Z ECWMF ALTHOUGH IS STILL SHOWS RECURVATURE HAS TRENDED TO
LEFT TOO. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON A TRACK
CLOSE TO PR...USERS ARE REMINDED THAT TRACK FCSTS SIX DAYS OUT
ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. TYPICAL ERRORS THIS FAR OUT ARE IN
THE ORDER OF 350 NM. UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS A LOW LVL CENTER WELL
ESTABLISHED DO NOT EXPECT THE MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON IT.
RESIDENTS OF PR AND THE USVI ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND AND
GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS IN CASE THE THREAT FROM
THESE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS BECOMES MORE REAL.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST FRI AUG 14 2009
...PERSONS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AT 15 MPH AND ITS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS INDICATED THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE OTHER HAND...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250
MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION YET..CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR SEVERAL DAYS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
SUGGESTED THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD POSE A THREAT TO
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
USE THIS WEEKEND TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE PLANS. I
HERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT THINGS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT
TROPICAL CYCLONES:
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCH: TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WARNING: TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
DON`T FOCUS ON THE SKINNY BLACK LINE.
A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP...THE DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A
HURRICANE CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT IS WISE TO ASSUME
THAT YOU COULD EASILY TAKE A DIRECT HIT AND EVEN IF YOUR AREA DOES
NOT TAKE A DIRECT HIT YOU COULD STILL BE IN SERIOUS DANGER.
NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARING FOR THE STORM.
GROCERY STORES MAY SELL OUT OF ITEMS SOON. STOCK UP ON...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS. CANNED OR DRIED FOOD AND
DRINKING WATER FOR AT LEAST 5 TO 7 DAYS. FIRST AID SUPPLIES.
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE.
GET CASH...CREDIT CARDS AND ATM`S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER.
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.
AROUND THE HOUSE...STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. SECURE WINDOWS WITH SHUTTERS...BOARDS ETC. ENSURE
BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING. MOVE BOAT TO A SAFE LOCATION.
TRIM LARGE TREES THAT COULD FALL ON HOUSE. MAKE SURE VALUABLE
PAPERS ARE SECURE.
KNOW WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU SHOULD YOU
DECIDE YOU ARE NO LONGER SAFE FROM HIGH WINDS AND/OR FLOODING.
IF YOU MUST EVACUATE TO A PUBLIC SHELTER REMEMBER TO BRING...FIRST
AID KIT. MEDICINE. BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS. TOILETRIES. CHANGE OF
CLOTHES. BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND EXTRA BATTERIES. FLASHLIGHT.
SLEEPING BAGS OR BLANKETS. IDENTIFICATION. VALUABLE PAPERS. CASH.
GAMES.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS, AND
HURRICANES IN GENERAL, IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET FROM SEVERAL
SOURCES:
PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SPANISH WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.GOBIERNO.PR/AEMEAD/INICIO
FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://FEMA.GOV
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/HAW2/ENGLISH/INTRO.SHTML
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV
AMERICAN RED CROSS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://REDCROSS.ORG
(ALL WEB PAGES SHOULD BE TYPED IN LOWER CASE)
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST FRI AUG 14 2009
...PERSONS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AT 15 MPH AND ITS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS INDICATED THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE OTHER HAND...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250
MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION YET..CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR SEVERAL DAYS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
SUGGESTED THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD POSE A THREAT TO
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
USE THIS WEEKEND TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE PLANS. I
HERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT THINGS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT
TROPICAL CYCLONES:
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCH: TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WARNING: TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
DON`T FOCUS ON THE SKINNY BLACK LINE.
A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP...THE DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A
HURRICANE CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT IS WISE TO ASSUME
THAT YOU COULD EASILY TAKE A DIRECT HIT AND EVEN IF YOUR AREA DOES
NOT TAKE A DIRECT HIT YOU COULD STILL BE IN SERIOUS DANGER.
NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARING FOR THE STORM.
GROCERY STORES MAY SELL OUT OF ITEMS SOON. STOCK UP ON...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS. CANNED OR DRIED FOOD AND
DRINKING WATER FOR AT LEAST 5 TO 7 DAYS. FIRST AID SUPPLIES.
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE.
GET CASH...CREDIT CARDS AND ATM`S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER.
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.
AROUND THE HOUSE...STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. SECURE WINDOWS WITH SHUTTERS...BOARDS ETC. ENSURE
BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING. MOVE BOAT TO A SAFE LOCATION.
TRIM LARGE TREES THAT COULD FALL ON HOUSE. MAKE SURE VALUABLE
PAPERS ARE SECURE.
KNOW WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU SHOULD YOU
DECIDE YOU ARE NO LONGER SAFE FROM HIGH WINDS AND/OR FLOODING.
IF YOU MUST EVACUATE TO A PUBLIC SHELTER REMEMBER TO BRING...FIRST
AID KIT. MEDICINE. BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS. TOILETRIES. CHANGE OF
CLOTHES. BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND EXTRA BATTERIES. FLASHLIGHT.
SLEEPING BAGS OR BLANKETS. IDENTIFICATION. VALUABLE PAPERS. CASH.
GAMES.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS, AND
HURRICANES IN GENERAL, IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET FROM SEVERAL
SOURCES:
PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SPANISH WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.GOBIERNO.PR/AEMEAD/INICIO
FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://FEMA.GOV
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/HAW2/ENGLISH/INTRO.SHTML
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV
AMERICAN RED CROSS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://REDCROSS.ORG
(ALL WEB PAGES SHOULD BE TYPED IN LOWER CASE)
$$
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
I added a web cam from the Cape Verde islands to look at that area when waves move thru.Remember that all the web cams are posted at the first post of thread.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E.Carib Thread=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
cycloneye wrote:PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
205 PM AST FRI AUG 14 2009
...PERSONS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION OVER THE
WEEKEND...
THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AT 15 MPH AND ITS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS INDICATED THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE OTHER HAND...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250
MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION YET..CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FOR SEVERAL DAYS COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
SUGGESTED THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD POSE A THREAT TO
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
USE THIS WEEKEND TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE PLANS. I
HERE ARE SOME IMPORTANT THINGS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT
TROPICAL CYCLONES:
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WATCH: TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE WARNING: TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.
DON`T FOCUS ON THE SKINNY BLACK LINE.
A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP...THE DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A
HURRICANE CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IT IS WISE TO ASSUME
THAT YOU COULD EASILY TAKE A DIRECT HIT AND EVEN IF YOUR AREA DOES
NOT TAKE A DIRECT HIT YOU COULD STILL BE IN SERIOUS DANGER.
NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND SECURE YOUR PROPERTY. THE
FOLLOWING ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR PREPARING FOR THE STORM.
GROCERY STORES MAY SELL OUT OF ITEMS SOON. STOCK UP ON...
BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS. CANNED OR DRIED FOOD AND
DRINKING WATER FOR AT LEAST 5 TO 7 DAYS. FIRST AID SUPPLIES.
PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE.
GET CASH...CREDIT CARDS AND ATM`S MAY NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER.
FUEL FOR AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.
AROUND THE HOUSE...STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. SECURE WINDOWS WITH SHUTTERS...BOARDS ETC. ENSURE
BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING. MOVE BOAT TO A SAFE LOCATION.
TRIM LARGE TREES THAT COULD FALL ON HOUSE. MAKE SURE VALUABLE
PAPERS ARE SECURE.
KNOW WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU SHOULD YOU
DECIDE YOU ARE NO LONGER SAFE FROM HIGH WINDS AND/OR FLOODING.
IF YOU MUST EVACUATE TO A PUBLIC SHELTER REMEMBER TO BRING...FIRST
AID KIT. MEDICINE. BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS. TOILETRIES. CHANGE OF
CLOTHES. BATTERY POWERED RADIO AND EXTRA BATTERIES. FLASHLIGHT.
SLEEPING BAGS OR BLANKETS. IDENTIFICATION. VALUABLE PAPERS. CASH.
GAMES.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS, AND
HURRICANES IN GENERAL, IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET FROM SEVERAL
SOURCES:
PUERTO RICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY SPANISH WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.GOBIERNO.PR/AEMEAD/INICIO
FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY:
HTTP://FEMA.GOV
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/HAW2/ENGLISH/INTRO.SHTML
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HTTP://HURRICANES.GOV
AMERICAN RED CROSS HOME PAGE:
HTTP://REDCROSS.ORG
(ALL WEB PAGES SHOULD BE TYPED IN LOWER CASE)
$$
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knotimpaired
- Category 1
- Posts: 495
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 4:14 am
- Location: Vieques, PR
- Contact:
Hi everyone,
This is exhausting things about this storm and following all of the threads on 90L. We all have to stay diligent with this one. Even if you are not in the models track I would prepare just as if you were. You never know what will happen.
We have security cameras outside of our house that hold video for 24 hours and we can put that to disc and download it for you.
Also our Weatherhawk Weather Station is http://www.playacofi.com/weather. It is live but we have it about 20 ft up and I think it is only guaranteed to up to 115 mph so you can also keep an eye on our island's condition by that. By we are on the north coast very close to the beach so our weather by no means qualifies for what may be happening up on the mid-island ridge.
Tomorrow is hurricane day prep for us. We have men coming in to move all of the heavy items that need to be secured that we cannot do.
The good news! Our fully stocked teak bar that normally is outside on the patio will be brought in the house tomorrow. It is 5' x 3' solid so Lee and I could not move it.
Wish us well, our upstairs is wooden although our contractor checked our tiedowns today and only had to replace one.
K
This is exhausting things about this storm and following all of the threads on 90L. We all have to stay diligent with this one. Even if you are not in the models track I would prepare just as if you were. You never know what will happen.
We have security cameras outside of our house that hold video for 24 hours and we can put that to disc and download it for you.
Also our Weatherhawk Weather Station is http://www.playacofi.com/weather. It is live but we have it about 20 ft up and I think it is only guaranteed to up to 115 mph so you can also keep an eye on our island's condition by that. By we are on the north coast very close to the beach so our weather by no means qualifies for what may be happening up on the mid-island ridge.
Tomorrow is hurricane day prep for us. We have men coming in to move all of the heavy items that need to be secured that we cannot do.
The good news! Our fully stocked teak bar that normally is outside on the patio will be brought in the house tomorrow. It is 5' x 3' solid so Lee and I could not move it.
Wish us well, our upstairs is wooden although our contractor checked our tiedowns today and only had to replace one.
K
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