ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#761 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:46 pm

There wouldn't be much left of that system after traversing the entire length of Hispaniola and Cuba.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#762 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:49 pm

:uarrow:

Two things

1) its the 18Z GFS, not as much data is used. The past few 18Z GFS runs have been more left biased it seems.

2) We are talking over 144 hours out so pegging the exact track just doesn't make sense as it is going to change run after run after run.
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 90L

#763 Postby paintplaye » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:50 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#764 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:53 pm

From what I saw last year with Gustav and Ike the wind radii really expands after encountering the Antilles. Just look how huge Ike became.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#765 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:56 pm

I am now explicitly forecasting development within 12-24 hours. see analysis forum
0 likes   

rrm
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Fri May 15, 2009 2:05 pm

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#766 Postby rrm » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:58 pm

any possibility this makes it to texas?
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re:

#767 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:There wouldn't be much left of that system after traversing the entire length of Hispaniola and Cuba.


Yep take that track and we have a lower end TS on our hands by the time it come sout with an utterly ruined inner core.
As Ike and Georges proved they tend not to be able to really power up as much as they did before even in decent conditions.

Still as others have said, thats still a long way out yet, tohugh the GFS has been very determined to smash this system into at least PR now.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#768 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:01 pm

Yep, if you look at the 18z GFS you could just as easily think you were back in 1998 watching hurricane Georges, thats run is almost a clone!

Also very interesting Derek!
0 likes   

shah8
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:36 pm

#769 Postby shah8 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:01 pm

I think it's already developed. It really looks like it only needs symmetric convection to fit the standard. After that it's basically a race to warmer waters vs random shear events. I think we take models seriously after we get a nice CDO going...
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re: Re:

#770 Postby fci » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:04 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:How many times has the GFS clipped the keys and slammed NO with 90L so far lol? It's crazy!


we have been in the bulls eye so many times i prefer that 5+ days out because how many times has it worked out. How about that big bad Ike last year that was coming here.


IMO, we dodged a major bullet with Ike last year and its irregular track veering SW into Cuba. All sane logic had it coming right here as a powerful storm. Of course, much of last year defied "sane logic".

I have NO basis for this statement beyond personal opinion and experience but...... I venture to guess that about 9 out of 10 times a storm DOES NOT take the irregular course that Ike took. We can count our blessings here in South Florida on that one!

Sorry to my friends in Texas on how Ike turned out.
0 likes   

shah8
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:36 pm

#771 Postby shah8 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:04 pm

I disagree. Gustav was nailed by shear going through Cuba. Only a slightly more favorable path for Ike in the Gulf would have meant it had a real shot at ramping up--Ike was going over colder waters for much of the Gulf period.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#772 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:08 pm

Yeah I think thats the key thing everyone is waiting for, it just needs to wrap in the convection a little better. Put it this way, if this was a TD already no one would be thinking of downgrading it, at least for a while anyway IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11161
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#773 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:10 pm

18z GFDL...ouch

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Iune
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 291
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2008 12:23 pm
Location: New York City

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#774 Postby Iune » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:11 pm

Ivanhater wrote:18z GFDL...ouch

Image

where is 90L then?
0 likes   

lonelymike
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 634
Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:12 am
Location: walton county fla

Re:

#775 Postby lonelymike » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:11 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow:

Two things

1) its the 18Z GFS, not as much data is used. The past few 18Z GFS runs have been more left biased it seems.

2) We are talking over 144 hours out so pegging the exact track just doesn't make sense as it is going to change run after run after run.



Also a lot of these models are fed with data from the GFS. So if the GFS is garbage...well you get the picture. :spam:
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#776 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:12 pm

Ivanhater, what direction is it going at the moment, WNW or closer to the west?
edit---looks like its very close to the GFS actually.
0 likes   

User avatar
StormTracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2903
Age: 59
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:06 am
Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

Re: ATL: Invest 90L

#777 Postby StormTracker » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:21 pm

Well, if this keeps up, the Atlantic will kinda look like my avatar!!! 8-)
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#778 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:23 pm

Phoenix's Song wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:18z GFDL...ouch

Image

where is 90L then?


Near the Lesser Antilles. That island just east of the eye is Guadeloupe.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145336
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Invest 90L Models

#779 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:24 pm

Here is the text of the 18z GFDL.Caribbean bound again.

WHXX04 KWBC 142321
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.5 28.9 280./14.0
6 12.5 30.0 269./11.3
12 12.5 31.8 271./17.3
18 12.3 33.7 263./18.8
24 12.2 35.7 268./20.0
30 12.1 37.4 265./16.3
36 11.8 39.1 261./16.9
42 11.8 40.8 271./16.9
48 11.8 42.4 271./15.0
54 11.8 43.8 270./14.5
60 12.1 45.2 281./13.7
66 12.8 46.8 294./16.6
72 13.4 48.7 288./19.4
78 13.8 50.3 281./16.2
84 14.3 51.8 291./15.6
90 15.0 53.6 290./18.8
96 15.6 55.4 288./18.5
102 16.0 57.3 284./18.6
108 16.2 59.1 276./17.2
114 16.5 60.9 280./17.4
120 16.8 62.5 277./15.7
126 17.0 64.2 277./16.7
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#780 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:26 pm

18z HWRF aimed to go just above the Islands...
0 likes   


Return to “2009”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests