ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[Aric Dunn]

Cool thanks.. just needed to see where they dropped that dropsonde ..

[Evil Jeremy]

This is going to be a nice battle to see which storm gets upgraded (or named) first. I think TD2 will become a TD (again) first. We should create a poll for this like we did with Ana v 90L.

[Aric Dunn]

This is going to be a nice battle to see which storm gets upgraded (or named) first. I think TD2 will become a TD (again) first. We should create a poll for this like we did with Ana v 90L.

Td2 will be ...

[RL3AO]

Maybe we can get one of those times where TD2 is Bill and TD3 is Ana.

[caneflyer]

you do not fly the G-IV into a tropical cyclone. If they do, it is with a skeletal crew. There is not really any accidental dropping into the center

Gee, I hope it's not a skeletal crew. If so, they need to feed those folks. Perhaps a skeleton crew, however!

[RL3AO]

UZNT13 KWBC 142359
XXAA 64231 99180 70482 04188 99014 27037 ///// 00124 25832 06019
92807 20627 07025 85535 17037 06520 70173 09034 08017 50588 04599
10010 40760 16178 29001 30970 31973 21010 25096 40971 19517 20244
53361 21013 15424 651// 18011 88999 77999
31313 09608 82240
61616 NOAA9 WXWXA TD2 OB 05
62626 SPL 1800N04823W 2256 LST WND 013 MBL WND 06019 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 12507 013145 WL150 06019 086 REL 1799N04819W 224048 SPG 180
0N04823W 225604 =
XXBB 64238 99180 70482 04188 00014 27037 11957 22415 22850 17037
33833 15848 44822 15212 55773 14057 66741 12456 77698 08832 88679
07858 99628 03210 11582 00706 22554 01747 33526 05338 44523 05356
55517 04183 66513 03999 77472 06984 88378 19379 99278 35176 11238
43566 22192 55962 33172 611// 44145 65956
21212 00014 ///// 11013 06519 22984 05518 33923 07525 44850 06520
55799 08516 66738 07515 77690 08014 88640 11516 99561 11022 11523
11018 22512 09010 33494 10512 44484 09011 55470 09510 66383 00000
77314 20010 88301 21010 99289 20013 11282 22013 22263 19017 33253
19018 44240 21013 55214 20014 66197 21013 77166 17521 88152 19511
31313 09608 82240
61616 NOAA9 WXWXA TD2 OB 05
62626 SPL 1800N04823W 2256 LST WND 013 MBL WND 06019 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 12507 013145 WL150 06019 086 REL 1799N04819W 224048 SPG 180
0N04823W 225604 =


Location: 832 miles (1340 km) to the ENE (66°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

[drezee]

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1010mb (Surface) 20° (from the NNE) 19 knots (22 mph)
938mb 40° (from the NE) 29 knots (33 mph)
850mb 35° (from the NE) 23 knots (26 mph)
765mb 40° (from the NE) 17 knots (20 mph)
740mb 55° (from the NE) 20 knots (23 mph)
581mb 45° (from the NE) 39 knots (45 mph)
568mb 35° (from the NE) 31 knots (36 mph)
540mb 60° (from the ENE) 20 knots (23 mph)
513mb 45° (from the NE) 18 knots (21 mph)
443mb 30° (from the NNE) 27 knots (31 mph)
423mb 20° (from the NNE) 24 knots (28 mph)
406mb 55° (from the NE) 22 knots (25 mph)
365mb 5° (from the N) 14 knots (16 mph)
351mb 25° (from the NNE) 13 knots (15 mph)
321mb 40° (from the NE) 12 knots (14 mph)
311mb 75° (from the ENE) 11 knots (13 mph)
306mb 85° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
257mb 70° (from the ENE) 18 knots (21 mph)
229mb 100° (from the E) 19 knots (22 mph)
201mb 85° (from the E) 20 knots (23 mph)
168mb 105° (from the ESE) 32 knots (37 mph)

[CrazyC83]

CODE RED - Could be a TD again at 11?

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET
INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME
ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 12 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE ...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[MWatkins]

I don't think there is any question that this is atleast a TD at this point, and it may be a little stronger. Will be interesting to see if they send the research plane through the system just to check...

MW

M Watkins it is truly good to here from, and i hope you will stick around and help guide us through what could be a busy couple of weeks.

Thanks for the nice words perk! I'll try to be around more that it's getting active again. Might actually start blogging again too. I'll do what I can

There are a lot of pretty knowledgable folks here, glad I can contribute.

MW

[JonathanBelles]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET
INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME
ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

What did they find to be able to say this?

[Sanibel]

After viewing satellite loops I came in to revise my opinion on TD2. I see it has gotten a code red. So obviously NHC saw it before I did. But I was going to write that present behavior suggests development and that it probably has overcome the negative conditions.

The Bahamas wave headed towards the Gulf could also be turning on and curling up. Not sure on that one yet.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

No TD yet.

AL, 02, 2009081500, , BEST, 0, 147N, 448W, 30, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[CrazyC83]

AL, 02, 2009081500, , BEST, 0, 147N, 448W, 30, 1007, LO

Still a low but up to 30 kt.

[CrazyC83]

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET
INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME
ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

What did they find to be able to say this?

Not sure? I don't see any HDOB data...but they must see things we aren't seeing.

[bob rulz]

It could still be upgraded at 11 right? This is on the verge...if not 11 then 5 for sure...

[cycloneye]

00 UTC BAMS


WHXX01 KWBC 150041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TWO (AL022009) 20090815 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 0000 090815 1200 090816 0000 090816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 44.8W 15.1N 47.0W 16.2N 50.0W 17.7N 54.2W
BAMD 14.7N 44.8W 15.5N 47.1W 16.7N 49.9W 17.9N 53.1W
BAMM 14.7N 44.8W 15.2N 47.1W 16.1N 49.8W 17.0N 53.3W
LBAR 14.7N 44.8W 15.2N 47.6W 16.1N 50.7W 17.0N 54.2W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 0000 090818 0000 090819 0000 090820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 58.4W 23.3N 67.0W 26.9N 73.0W 29.0N 75.5W
BAMD 19.2N 56.5W 21.4N 63.6W 23.8N 69.4W 25.0N 72.9W
BAMM 18.1N 57.1W 20.1N 65.3W 22.5N 72.5W 24.4N 77.6W
LBAR 18.1N 58.0W 20.5N 65.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 58KTS 61KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 58KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.7N LONCUR = 44.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 41.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Evil Jeremy]

It could still be upgraded at 11 right? This is on the verge...if not 11 then 5 for sure...

It could be. As we learned a few days ago with this very system, the NHC can change their minds, so even though the best track from a few minutes ago kept this as a low, we could still see a TD (or 2) tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

It could still be upgraded at 11 right? This is on the verge...if not 11 then 5 for sure...

yeah ... thats not from the nhc..

[brunota2003]

61 knots at the end, eh? only 4 more to go for the SHIPS to say Hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

thats actually a big decrease from 6 hours ago