ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

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Ivanhater
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Re: Re:

#1201 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:27 pm

Scorpion wrote:
KWT wrote:Whats also interesting is all the convection is lumped on the SW side. I remember seeing that with Katrina when it did its WSW dive, IMO this is going to do something very similar in the next 24hrs as the center is more likely to wobble towards the deeper convection on the west/south side.


Yep, once the center gets consolidated further south I think the models will change their tune significantly.


With the models shifting further south with Ana and TD3 moving SW and faster than the models indicate, I just don't see how this misses the Islands.
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#1202 Postby weatherSnoop » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:28 pm

Am I reading correctly? GFDL initialized at 11.9 and UKMET at 10.9 :double:
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Re: Re:

#1203 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:28 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
KWT wrote:Whats also interesting is all the convection is lumped on the SW side. I remember seeing that with Katrina when it did its WSW dive, IMO this is going to do something very similar in the next 24hrs as the center is more likely to wobble towards the deeper convection on the west/south side.


Yep, once the center gets consolidated further south I think the models will change their tune significantly.


With the models shifting further south with Ana and TD3 moving SW and faster than the models indicate, I just don't see how this misses the Islands.


At this rate, it might be the Windwards that would have to worry.
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#1204 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:28 pm

Ana is moving SW? It looks on the visible to be heading W to WNW to me.
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Re: Re:

#1205 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:28 pm

It could miss hispanola and cuba...heading to the south....that wouldn't be good. Then we have storms aiming at the Gulf of Mexico.

Ivanhater wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
KWT wrote:Whats also interesting is all the convection is lumped on the SW side. I remember seeing that with Katrina when it did its WSW dive, IMO this is going to do something very similar in the next 24hrs as the center is more likely to wobble towards the deeper convection on the west/south side.


Yep, once the center gets consolidated further south I think the models will change their tune significantly.


With the models shifting further south with Ana and TD3 moving SW and faster than the models indicate, I just don't see how this misses the Islands.
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Re: ATL:TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (Models)

#1206 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:29 pm

Tropicswatcher wrote:12 UKMET:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 33.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2009 10.9N 33.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.1N 35.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.3N 39.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 11.8N 41.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2009 12.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 13.5N 49.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.0N 52.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2009 14.4N 56.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 14.7N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 14.9N 62.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 15.9N 66.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2009 16.3N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 16.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


Ummm UKMET is a Caribbean tracker.What does this model see different from the others?
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Re: Re:

#1207 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:29 pm

jinftl wrote:It could miss hispanola and cuba...heading to the south....that wouldn't be good. Then we have storms aiming at the Gulf of Mexico.
[/quote]

Either that or the Yucatan/Central America gets slammed. As we saw with Dean and Felix, those can be of nightmare strength.
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Re: ATL:TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (Models)

#1208 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Tropicswatcher wrote:12 UKMET:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 33.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2009 10.9N 33.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.1N 35.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.3N 39.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 11.8N 41.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2009 12.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 13.5N 49.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.0N 52.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2009 14.4N 56.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 14.7N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 14.9N 62.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 15.9N 66.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2009 16.3N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 16.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


Ummm UKEMET is a Caribbean tracker.


And it initialized it correctly, unlike the GFDL at 11.9!
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE

#1209 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:30 pm

Ah, Ana is turning more WNW now. Could be indicating the steering pattern for TD3.
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Re: ATL:TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (Models)

#1210 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Tropicswatcher wrote:12 UKMET:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 33.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2009 10.9N 33.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.1N 35.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.3N 39.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 11.8N 41.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2009 12.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 13.5N 49.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.0N 52.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2009 14.4N 56.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 14.7N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 14.9N 62.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 15.9N 66.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2009 16.3N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 16.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


Ummm UKEMET is a Caribbean tracker.



Agreed Luis but if your talking Caribbean...All of Ana modeling is bringing her into the Caribbean sea now..
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Re:

#1211 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:31 pm

brunota2003 wrote:Ana is moving SW? It looks on the visible to be heading W to WNW to me.


No, TD 3
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Derek Ortt

#1212 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:31 pm

the UKMET fails to clear Martinique
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Re: ATL:TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE (Models)

#1213 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:31 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Tropicswatcher wrote:12 UKMET:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ANALYSED POSITION : 10.9N 33.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL032009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.08.2009 10.9N 33.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.08.2009 11.1N 35.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.08.2009 11.3N 39.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.08.2009 11.8N 41.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2009 12.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2009 13.5N 49.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2009 14.0N 52.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2009 14.4N 56.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2009 14.7N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2009 14.9N 62.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2009 15.9N 66.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2009 16.3N 69.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2009 16.8N 71.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


Ummm UKEMET is a Caribbean tracker.


And it initialized it correctly, unlike the GFDL at 11.9!


And also is in the right speed.
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#1214 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:33 pm

UKMO is the ONE to watch by the way...

This is because it handles upper highs exceptionally well. Its not as good with other features but with the UKMO upper highs are very well forecasted indeed usually.
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#1215 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:34 pm

Is this correct: if it drops really far south, it moves away from the Bermuda High's steering currents completely, which would keep it almost dead straight to Central America?
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE

#1216 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:34 pm

Image
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Re:

#1217 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:35 pm

KWT wrote:UKMO is the ONE to watch by the way...

This is because it handles upper highs exceptionally well. Its not as good with other features but with the UKMO upper highs are very well forecasted indeed usually.


You sure you are just not biased because it is the United Kingdom model? :wink: ...Just kidding KWT. It has great initialization on this run.
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Re:

#1218 Postby Gustywind » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:36 pm

Nimbus wrote:Convection appears to be starting to wrap around the center of future Bill. Some of the models are suggesting a savior trough for Florida but the center seems to be initializing awfully close to 11N now and the islands could really get hit hard with a low track. Anyone think the models are going to sweep the track left into the gulf over time?

:eek: :eek:
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Re: Re:

#1219 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:38 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Ana is moving SW? It looks on the visible to be heading W to WNW to me.


No, TD 3

Your post had both of them heading SW, or that's how I read it...Iono.
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#1220 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 15, 2009 1:38 pm

I'd guess about 11.4N, 35W right now roughly, just slight south of west,

If youm look at the WV you can see the upper high pushing further west wit hthe SAL as well, now extends pretty strongly to about 45W, so I cannot see it picking up very much latitude at all till then, should be around 12N, 50W. Still we shall see. After that roughly a 280-285 track as shown by the Ana.
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