ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (Models)

#1641 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:22 am

I don't think the 06z BAM models have been run yet. Interesting, they should be out by now.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (Models)

#1642 Postby lebron23 » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:38 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:I don't think the 06z BAM models have been run yet. Interesting, they should be out by now.


they ran.
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#1643 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:41 am

Looks like its going to bury itself into land, given how awful it looks may not be much left by the time it reaches the gulf region.
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Re:

#1644 Postby lebron23 » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:42 am

KWT wrote:Looks like its going to bury itself into land, given how awful it looks may not be much left by the time it reaches the gulf region.


CMC puts it back in the gulf with a strong system then nearing texas or louisiana
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#1645 Postby lebron23 » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:53 am

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#1646 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:53 am

Yeah but its got to survive first, no certainty its even going to get to the gulf!
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (Models)

#1647 Postby The Eye Wall » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:55 am

Timing of the trough is key. I'd be interested to see how the CMC performs after being tweaked.

Image
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#1648 Postby lebron23 » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:56 am

yeah...but models may be starting to cluster near the yucatan

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png


copy and paste that link.
Last edited by lebron23 on Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (Models)

#1649 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:56 am

I have major doubts it even survives the next day or two... much less to see the Caribbean/Hispanola/Cuba whatever. Bears watching but I'm extremely unimpressed right now. Beyond Cuba I have no idea.
Last edited by Brent on Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1650 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:57 am

More to the point quite a few models don't even have this surviving, I think thats a real option right now.
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Re:

#1651 Postby paintplaye » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:57 am

KWT wrote:Yeah but its got to survive first, no certainty its even going to get to the gulf!


No certainty it is even going to make it to the carib. This thing looks like #*%$. :lol:
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#1652 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 2:59 am

How is this still a TS I'l never know, its bound to get downgraded sooner then later given its sheared to pieces, may not even make it to the Caribbean!
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (Models)

#1653 Postby The Eye Wall » Sun Aug 16, 2009 3:01 am

The UKMET keeps Ana south of Cuba. This would not be good news. Being that Ana is a small circulation anyway, it's literally a matter of a few miles whether it lives to see another day.


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#1654 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 3:06 am

Models barely showing this now at all it seems, think its fate is probably sealed in this case...
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Re:

#1655 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 16, 2009 3:11 am

KWT wrote:Models barely showing this now at all it seems, think its fate is probably sealed in this case...


It looks absolutely horrific. I wouldn't be surprised if it's down to a TD later this morning or possibly even killed(again). The LLC is racing out ahead of the convection.
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#1656 Postby knotimpaired » Sun Aug 16, 2009 3:28 am

US Coast Guard 9:32pn last night

My layman terms for the x-y-z rule

X-Ray - Prepare your port for approaching storm

Yankee - Leave port to you final destination (in our case the ferries go to San Juan)

Zebra - You really messed up. We told you to leave. Batten down the hatches.



News Release Aug. 15, 2009
Contact: Ricardo Castrodad
(787) 510-7923

Captain of the Port increases ports conditions for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

“Tropical Storm Ana"

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico – The Coast Guard Sector San Juan Captain of the Port, Capt. Eduardo Pino, increased port conditions for the ports in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday due to the expectation that gale force winds generated by Tropical Storm Ana will arrive within 48 hours.
Port Conditions for the U.S. Virgin Islands:

The Captain of the Port has set Port Condition X-Ray for the ports in Saint John, Saint Thomas and Saint Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands.

Port Conditions for Puerto Rico:
The Captain of the Port has also set Port Condition X-Ray for the ports of Vieques, Culebra, Fajardo, Yabucoa, San Juan, Ponce, Guayanilla, Guanica and Arecibo, Puerto Rico, and he anticipates setting Port Condition X-Ray for the port of Mayaguez, Puerto Rico by 10 p.m. Saturday.

Waterfront facilities should be removing potential flying debris, hazardous materials and pollutants from dockside areas. All oceangoing commercial vessels greater than 200 gross tons must prepare to depart the port and shall depart immediately upon setting port condition YANKEE, which is anticipated to be set Sunday afternoon. Vessels unable to depart the port must contact the Captain of the Port and submit a safe mooring plan in writing when requesting and prior to receiving permission to remain in port. Inbound vessels that will be unable to depart the port upon the setting of port condition YANKEE are advised to seek an alternate destination.

Ports, facilities and operators should anticipate additional restrictions on inbound and outbound traffic as Tropical Storm Ana approaches.

Mariners should prepare for impending severe weather prior to the anticipated arrival of gale force winds or when an evacuation is in progress.
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#1657 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 3:31 am

Ana really looks awful now, very close to being downgraded I'd imagine, just can't seem to keep near the convection.
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Re:

#1658 Postby caribepr » Sun Aug 16, 2009 3:33 am

KWT wrote:How is this still a TS I'l never know, its bound to get downgraded sooner then later given its sheared to pieces, may not even make it to the Caribbean!


I was watching it around 2:30 and thinking - and hoping - the same WONDERFUL thing!! Hoping the next update makes it so (but we know what can happen, so everything that's put away is staying put away while we watch and wait).
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL STORM ANA (Advisories)

#1659 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:05 am

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... T.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 53.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 53.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 56.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 60.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.8N 64.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.6N 68.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.0N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 25.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 53.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

...ANA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA... T.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES...900 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF
ANA SHOULD REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 53.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

AN ASCAT PASS AT 00Z SUGGESTED THAT ANA WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM
AT THAT TIME...BUT IT CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH VERY
LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...AND MAY HAVE WEAKENED. FOR NOW
HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. THE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH WHICH ANA IS MOVING IS VERY DRY...AND THE SYSTEM HAS HAD
DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION...AND SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT. LATER ON...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH LAND.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ANA
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.6N 53.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 15.0N 56.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 15.9N 60.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 16.8N 64.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 17.6N 68.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 20.0N 76.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/0600Z 23.0N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 21/0600Z 25.0N 85.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#1660 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:08 am

Still offically a TS somehow, this would never get upgraded from TD to a TS so I'm not sure why its holding onto TS status.

Also note its still heading westwards, not picking up any latitude even at this stage, starting to look increasingly possible that its going to slide just south of the islands. Also will be interesting to see if it even survives that far, no certainty.
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