Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNGER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM...EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE
OF BILL WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.6N 52.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT43 KNHC 182047
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

BILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BILL THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 114
KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR OBSERVED MAXIMUM WINDS
AROUND 85 KT IN EACH QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 AND 102 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CHANGED VERY LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH DAY 2...AND HAS NOT BEEN
ADJUSTED APPRECIABLY BEYOND THAT TIME AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE USUALLY
WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS GRADUALLY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.6N 52.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 54.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 20.7N 59.3W 115 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 27.3N 65.8W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 40.5N 65.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[expat2carib]

I spent the afternoon, well, the whole day, trying to make things work for the good of my friend's boat and hoped by all the time I wasted I'd come home to find that we knew SOMETHING for more sure.

Seems not the case.

Have to add this....after spreading the word about the ULL that was holding back the curve, I screwed up the WHOLE MANGROVE GANG of people trying to get their boats out because the guy at the head (last in first out and vice versa) decided I might have a point and wouldn't move his tri. So no one can get out. La la. I figure they will either be thanking him later or cursing him but better to prepare for the worst and we STILL DON'T KNOW. Or do we?

Hi Caribepr,

Good job! Your friend must be a lot more relax now. Better safe then sorry.

I've been following the board all day and have to admit I still have unanswered questions here as well.

I guess everything is still a "little" insecure on the islands. I will relax when Bill is over the 20N and there were no swells here. You are almost out of the risk zone (except the swells I guess)

[caribepr]

Moderate swells, we can live with !

[expat2carib]

Moderate swells, we can live with !

Here in Dominica they can be a problem. Last year after Omar -he passed over St. Maarten- the state started building a seawall and it's not ready yet. They started because the moderate swells washed away the road between two villages ( and much more around the island)

Two weeks isolation without power, water and more. Sounds like a holiday But it wasn't.

[Gustywind]

BIG BABY BILL is impressive:double:

[Gustywind]

I keep my fingers crossed for all of you my carib islanders...praying that Bill will miss the Leewards, Northern Leewards, PR. Whereas hope that the sea won't be too rough too in our area. I guess that everbody in the islands continue to monitor pretty closely this huge cane!
Stay safe all.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 182357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 2100 UTC WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR 16.6N 52.2W OR
ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. BILL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 95 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 110 KT MAKING
BILL A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HRS AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
SURROUNDS THE CENTER OF BILL AND IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N38W TO 8N34W MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THE WAVE IS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN
INTO THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE BILL WHICH EXPLAINS THE TILTED
AXIS OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO LEADS A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 33W-37W AND
FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THIS
WAVE ORIGINATED AS THE REMNANTS OF ANA THAT DISSIPATED
YESTERDAY. WHILE THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
REGENERATION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING A LARGE AREA
INCLUDING CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN
75W-80W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N25W 11N33W 9N39W
12N46W 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 21W-26W.
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WET TONIGHT AS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-97W ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE GULF STATES
ARE ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A TROUGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS LOUISIANA AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 27N90W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER
HIGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N102W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE E COAST OF
MEXICO FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 95W-98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA
NEAR 20N80W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 81W-84W ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC. FINALLY...ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 86W-91W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE GULF AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W...REMNANTS OF ANA...MOVE
WWD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 17N BETWEEN 81W-86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF CUBA NEAR 20N80W AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH E
OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N70W IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS E CUBA N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W...PREVIOUSLY THE REMNANTS OF ANA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN 73W-81W ENHANCED BY THE S PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
AS WELL AS THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER E OF 68W
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF ANA...MOVE WWD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM
21N-28N BETWEEN 75W-81W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
24N80W TO 27N76W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S
OF CUBA NEAR 20N80W AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 25N70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER HIGH AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N WITH AXIS ALONG 75W IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 67W-70W. A
COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N44W EXTENDING TO
28N54W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 34N74W...A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 33N61W...AND ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 36W-62W N OF
29N...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 30N30W DOMINATING
THE E ATLC. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 20N30W ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR
THE AFRICA COAST.

$$
WALTON

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT63 KNHC 190030
TCUAT3
HURRICANE BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
830 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR. BILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[expat2carib]

deleted because of double post

[Gustywind]

Bill became a major cat 3 hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI%20...%200030.shtml

This link does not work Expat2carib, whereas in my previous post everybody can have the latest info about the Bill...now cat 3 cane with 205 km/hr sustained winds.

[expat2carib]

Same time .. same post "Posted: Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:47 pm"

You were seconds faster

[Gustywind]

Same time .. same post "Posted: Tue Aug 18, 2009 7:47 pm"

You were seconds faster

LOOL pfff faster?...no my friend exaequo i prefer no records here, it's the tent! Only Bill he's faster than us because he loves to go fishing...quickly far away from the islands beginning by Guadeloupe

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 190236
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.4 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES...
895 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE
WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR
-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE...AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 53.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 190241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH
MISSION IN BILL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT BILL
HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS NOW A MAJOR
HURRICANE. HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 126 KT AT
700 MB...WITH THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952 MB AT 0202 UTC.
THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 100 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE UW CIMSS
OBJECTIVE ADVANCED DVORAK VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 7.0.
BLENDING THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND DROPSONDE WINDS
WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH ARE
VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY. REGARDLESS...BILL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TAKING A TOLL. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AROUND
96 HOURS...WITH A MORE DECIDED RATE OF WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 295/13...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT
CHANGED. BILL IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD INTO A
SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WHERE IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
STEERING FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.2N 53.4W 110 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 18.4N 55.4W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 21.8N 60.5W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 23.8N 62.9W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 29.0N 67.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 35.0N 68.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 42.0N 64.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[caribepr]

Moderate swells, we can live with !

Here in Dominica they can be a problem. Last year after Omar -he passed over St. Maarten- the state started building a seawall and it's not ready yet. They started because the moderate swells washed away the road between two villages ( and much more around the island)

Two weeks isolation without power, water and more. Sounds like a holiday But it wasn't.

Yes, I hear you! I was thinking on a smaller scale, wrongly.

[abajan]

Check out the wind speed/direction and barometric pressure in the summary of Barbados’ weather conditions over the last 24 hours: A sure sign that a storm is not too far away but (thankfully) passing to our northeast.

[caribepr]

Check out the wind speed/direction and barometric pressure in the summary of Barbados’ weather conditions over the last 24 hours: A sure sign that a storm is not too far away but (thankfully) passing to our northeast.

I think over here we are starting to let our collective breath out as Bill steadily climbs...ahead of schedule. We're getting little showers, one heavy one about 4 this morning from the north east - hopefully that will be what we get as the day goes along and nothing more.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Bill is now at the latitud of Puerto Rico,ST Marteen,ST Thomas.Thank god that monster is moving in another direction and not this way.But scattered showers moving from the NE are moving SW with the huge circulation Bill has.So we can expect a variable day and a not warm day because of the NE to north winds.

[caribepr]

I was just listening to NPR news and they reported the NHC was still telling us in the Leewards to keep watch, even though it is supposed to go over us.

[Gustywind]

Good morning my carib friends, seems that's we're blessed as BIG BABY BILL continues to miss all the Leewards, the Northern Leewards and PR and that's the very very good news. Hope that this monter will reach the 20N today or tommorow, this position will mean a nice outcome for all of us , but a usual we should continue once again to monitor this dangerous cat 4 cane

Here is the monster crossing far away from the Leewards...











000
WTNT33 KNHC 190842
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

...BILL STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES...
740 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS
HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE BILL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.0N 54.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN






000
WTNT43 KNHC 190844
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009

BILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED 25-30 N MI WIDE EYE WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS
TO NEAR -80C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE
115 KT AT 06Z...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE SUGGESTS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BILL.

THE MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300 DEGREES AT 14 KT. BILL IS ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N60W AND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 69W-75W. THESE FEATURES ARE
CURRENTLY CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST BILL TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THIS WEAKNESS DURING THE NEXT
48-72 HR...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE EARLIEST TURN AND THE
NOGAPS/UKMET SHOWING THE LATEST TURN. AFTER THAT...A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE BILL TO RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
LARGE MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER 72 HR...WITH
THE NOGAPS ON ONE SIDE BRINGING BILL NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS ON THE OTHER SIDE CALLING FOR A SHARP
TURN OUT TO SEA. OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO
LIKEWISE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BILL HAS STRENGTHENED IN SPITE OF BEING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 12 HR...SO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BY 48-72 HR...BILL SHOULD
INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHEAR...SO
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.
AFTER 72 HR...BILL SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AS IT
MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A FASTER WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...
WHICH ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 18.0N 54.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 19.0N 56.8W 120 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 20.6N 59.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 22.5N 62.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 24.4N 64.4W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 68.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 36.0N 68.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 44.0N 62.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN