ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

DreamworksSKG wrote:
SO what happens if the trough goes negative tilt-wise and doesnt progress as quickly as we thought or isn't as strong? And what if the bermuda high doesn't weaken as much as they thought?


if the trough is not as strong, Bill will likely hit Newfoundland.

If it goes negative tilt... worst case is cat 3 into Long Island

During Ike, we had such a long duration of sustained winds that were super strong and it was also a cat 3. If this went into a worse case situation and it rides over Long Island and I assume CT RI MA and ME...how long would those winds last?...in other words, would it be long an event?

In order for a storm to really impact us up here with the colder water it would have to be moving pretty fast. The period of sustained Hurricane force winds should be nothing compared to what you got in texas for ike. However even though it wouldn't be long it would be very devastating for this area. I remember with Bob it didn't last long but we were feeling the effects from it for weeks after and here in Portland we only got tropical storm force winds.

[kurtpage]

looking good...

[RattleMan]

I'll follow AF303 for a while - you can stay on NOAA3.

Alright, thanks.

UZNT13 KWBC 200208
XXAA 70027 99205 70585 07808 99954 ///// 12579 00/// ///// /////
92/// 24200 13606 85/// 20800 15102 70/// 142// 16589 88999 77999
31313 09608 80157
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 20
62626 REL 2050N05847W 015741 SPG 2059N05852W 020144 DLM WND 15094
953696 LST WND 012 EYEWALL 090=
XXBB 70028 99205 70585 07808 00954 ///// 11951 25800 22721 15601
33695 14200
21212 00954 12579 11952 12083 22951 12079 33950 12089 44947 12594
55922 14107 66914 14101 77907 14110 88898 14600 99695 16588
31313 09608 80157
61616 NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 20
62626 REL 2050N05847W 015741 SPG 2059N05852W 020144 DLM WND 15094
953696 LST WND 012 EYEWALL 090=


URNT15 KWBC 200205
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 34 20090820
015600 2031N 05821W 6947 02846 9627 +131 +131 171112 114 088 006 03
015630 2031N 05823W 6942 02830 9604 +129 +129 173105 111 087 021 00
015700 2030N 05825W 6951 02797 9577 +134 +134 171095 097 084 007 00
015730 2030N 05827W 6962 02757 9544 +141 +140 167091 094 078 000 03
015800 2030N 05829W 6957 02741 9507 +153 +144 166078 082 072 000 03
015830 2029N 05831W 6945 02738 9471 +170 +138 163056 064 060 001 03
015900 2028N 05834W 6963 02704 9449 +184 +124 155032 040 999 999 03
015930 2028N 05836W 6941 02730 9445 +186 +117 166020 024 999 999 03
020000 2027N 05838W 6962 02706 9452 +181 +113 176016 019 009 000 03
020030 2027N 05840W 6954 02715 9460 +178 +099 186005 010 006 000 03
020100 2027N 05842W 6972 02697 9463 +183 +069 064004 006 003 000 03
020130 2027N 05845W 6963 02712 9462 +187 +065 077005 006 003 000 03
020200 2027N 05847W 6965 02709 9463 +185 +070 066006 008 011 000 03
020230 2027N 05849W 6941 02739 9460 +183 +115 004013 015 006 000 00
020300 2027N 05851W 6948 02735 9457 +190 +118 351025 032 006 000 00
020330 2027N 05854W 6951 02740 9464 +192 +118 345046 054 010 000 03
020400 2026N 05856W 6955 02748 9473 +198 +117 348068 072 051 000 00
020430 2026N 05858W 6968 02749 9505 +183 +129 352085 092 068 001 00
020500 2026N 05900W 6962 02781 9529 +184 +125 349093 095 080 001 00
020530 2026N 05902W 6981 02781 9576 +162 +129 344087 089 079 008 00

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
1:56:00z   20.31°N   58.21°W   694.7 hPa   2846m   962.7 hPa   13.1°C   13.1°C   171° @ 112kt   114kt   88kt   6mm   Suspect
1:56:30z   20.31°N   58.23°W   694.2 hPa   2830m   960.4 hPa   12.9°C   12.9°C   173° @ 105kt   111kt   87kt   21mm   OK
1:57:00z   20.30°N   58.25°W   695.1 hPa   2797m   957.7 hPa   13.4°C   13.4°C   171° @ 095kt   97kt   84kt   7mm   OK
1:57:30z   20.30°N   58.27°W   696.2 hPa   2757m   954.4 hPa   14.1°C   14.0°C   167° @ 091kt   94kt   78kt   0mm   Suspect
1:58:00z   20.30°N   58.29°W   695.7 hPa   2741m   950.7 hPa   15.3°C   14.4°C   166° @ 078kt   82kt   72kt   0mm   Suspect
1:58:30z   20.29°N   58.31°W   694.5 hPa   2738m   947.1 hPa   17.0°C   13.8°C   163° @ 056kt   64kt   60kt   1mm   Suspect
1:59:00z   20.28°N   58.34°W   696.3 hPa   2704m   944.9 hPa   18.4°C   12.4°C   155° @ 032kt   40kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
1:59:30z   20.28°N   58.36°W   694.1 hPa   2730m   944.5 hPa   18.6°C   11.7°C   166° @ 020kt   24kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:00:00z   20.27°N   58.38°W   696.2 hPa   2706m   945.2 hPa   18.1°C   11.3°C   176° @ 016kt   19kt   9kt   0mm   Suspect
2:00:30z   20.27°N   58.40°W   695.4 hPa   2715m   946.0 hPa   17.8°C   9.9°C   186° @ 005kt   10kt   6kt   0mm   Suspect
2:01:00z   20.27°N   58.42°W   697.2 hPa   2697m   946.3 hPa   18.3°C   6.9°C   64° @ 004kt   6kt   3kt   0mm   Suspect
2:01:30z   20.27°N   58.45°W   696.3 hPa   2712m   946.2 hPa   18.7°C   6.5°C   77° @ 005kt   6kt   3kt   0mm   Suspect
2:02:00z   20.27°N   58.47°W   696.5 hPa   2709m   946.3 hPa   18.5°C   7.0°C   66° @ 006kt   8kt   11kt   0mm   Suspect
2:02:30z   20.27°N   58.49°W   694.1 hPa   2739m   946.0 hPa   18.3°C   11.5°C   40° @ 013kt   15kt   6kt   0mm   OK
2:03:00z   20.27°N   58.51°W   694.8 hPa   2735m   945.7 hPa   19.0°C   11.8°C   351° @ 025kt   32kt   6kt   0mm   OK
2:03:30z   20.27°N   58.54°W   695.1 hPa   2740m   946.4 hPa   19.2°C   11.8°C   345° @ 046kt   54kt   10kt   0mm   Suspect
2:04:00z   20.26°N   58.56°W   695.5 hPa   2748m   947.3 hPa   19.8°C   11.7°C   348° @ 068kt   72kt   51kt   0mm   OK
2:04:30z   20.26°N   58.58°W   696.8 hPa   2749m   950.5 hPa   18.3°C   12.9°C   352° @ 085kt   92kt   68kt   1mm   OK
2:05:00z   20.26°N   59.00°W   696.2 hPa   2781m   952.9 hPa   18.4°C   12.5°C   349° @ 093kt   95kt   80kt   1mm   OK
2:05:30z   20.26°N   59.02°W   698.1 hPa   2781m   957.6 hPa   16.2°C   12.9°C   344° @ 087kt   89kt   79kt   8mm   OK


[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200215
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 04 20090820
020600 1753N 06354W 4135 07337 0388 -114 -450 028015 016 999 999 03
020630 1754N 06352W 4099 07405 0395 -121 -444 031014 015 999 999 03
020700 1754N 06350W 4094 07414 0396 -125 -444 032013 013 999 999 03
020730 1755N 06348W 4099 07405 0395 -125 -450 033012 013 999 999 03
020800 1755N 06345W 4098 07406 0395 -125 -457 028013 014 999 999 03
020830 1755N 06343W 4098 07406 0393 -125 -463 026012 013 999 999 03
020900 1756N 06341W 4101 07402 0394 -126 -467 028012 014 999 999 03
020930 1756N 06338W 4099 07403 0393 -126 -471 026013 013 999 999 03
021000 1757N 06336W 4098 07405 0394 -125 -475 026012 012 999 999 03
021030 1757N 06333W 4099 07405 0395 -121 -479 032012 013 999 999 03
021100 1758N 06331W 4098 07406 0395 -122 -483 029011 012 999 999 03
021130 1758N 06328W 4099 07406 0395 -125 -486 020011 012 999 999 03
021200 1759N 06326W 4098 07407 0394 -125 -489 019012 013 999 999 03
021230 1759N 06323W 4100 07402 0394 -128 -491 027012 012 999 999 03
021300 1800N 06321W 4099 07405 0394 -126 -493 025012 013 999 999 03
021330 1800N 06318W 4099 07405 0396 -125 -495 022014 014 999 999 03
021400 1801N 06316W 4099 07406 0396 -125 -497 020014 014 999 999 03
021430 1801N 06313W 4100 07405 0396 -125 -498 018013 014 999 999 03
021500 1802N 06311W 4098 07407 0397 -125 -500 022014 015 999 999 03
021530 1802N 06308W 4099 07405 0394 -128 -501 027014 014 999 999 03
$$

[vbhoutex]

Put very simply macrocane has some good advice for those involved in the above discussion. If you disagree with someone do it respectfully. If you know someone is posting false information as opposed to their opinion please report it to staff. We have very strict rules concerning the posting of false information. Discussions that degenerate like this need to be taken off the board to pm. However, be forewarned that the rules of the open board apply to all sections of this site including pm's and chat. No further warnings will be issued to anyone concerning this, instead staff will begin taking action as we deem necessary to bring the discussions back in line.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200225
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 05 20090820
021600 1803N 06306W 4097 07406 0392 -127 -502 027014 015 999 999 03
021630 1805N 06304W 4099 07402 0392 -129 -502 026014 014 999 999 03
021700 1807N 06303W 4099 07402 0392 -130 -464 029016 017 999 999 03
021730 1808N 06301W 4101 07399 0391 -131 -411 028018 018 999 999 03
021800 1810N 06259W 4098 07403 0391 -130 -446 031016 018 999 999 03
021830 1812N 06257W 4098 07402 0390 -130 -483 032014 014 999 999 03
021900 1813N 06256W 4099 07400 0389 -134 -488 032013 014 999 999 03
021930 1815N 06254W 4098 07401 0389 -135 -488 035011 012 999 999 03
022000 1817N 06252W 4098 07399 0389 -140 -279 025012 017 999 999 03
022030 1818N 06251W 4095 07402 0387 -144 -201 034014 015 999 999 05
022100 1820N 06249W 4101 07396 0388 -140 -250 014015 016 999 999 03
022130 1822N 06247W 4096 07404 0388 -141 -235 012017 018 999 999 03
022200 1824N 06245W 4103 07385 0384 -140 -257 018014 015 999 999 03
022230 1825N 06244W 4099 07394 0385 -138 -238 020012 013 999 999 03
022300 1827N 06242W 4099 07391 0383 -141 -214 021013 013 999 999 03
022330 1829N 06240W 4101 07389 0381 -143 -223 020011 012 999 999 03
022400 1830N 06238W 4101 07389 0380 -137 -375 026014 015 999 999 03
022430 1832N 06237W 4097 07393 0378 -138 -461 027014 015 999 999 03
022500 1834N 06235W 4100 07385 0377 -135 -489 024012 013 999 999 03
022530 1835N 06233W 4099 07387 0377 -138 -339 023013 014 999 999 03
$$

[wxman57]

Definitely looks lopsided to me. All the heavy squalls are west of the center. Tops are fairly warm in the right semicircle.

Got a call from my neighbor an hour ago - he's in Halifax for business through Sunday. Bill may bet there late Sunday, so I'm keeping in touch with him in case he needs to return early.

[RattleMan]

35 was skipped.

URNT15 KWBC 200225
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 36 20090820
021600 2027N 05948W 6959 03076 9925 +108 +108 015064 065 050 000 03
021630 2027N 05950W 6959 03082 9933 +107 +107 014062 064 048 001 03
021700 2027N 05953W 6958 03086 9936 +110 +104 014068 070 999 999 03
021730 2027N 05955W 6958 03091 9941 +113 +083 015064 067 999 999 03
021800 2027N 05957W 6959 03095 9951 +110 +068 014060 061 039 000 03
021830 2027N 06000W 6957 03101 9958 +109 +065 013059 060 999 999 03
021900 2027N 06002W 6958 03105 9969 +104 +059 013056 058 999 999 03
021930 2027N 06004W 6960 03107 9968 +109 +053 012053 054 999 999 03
022000 2027N 06006W 6958 03112 9967 +114 +047 011051 052 999 999 03
022030 2027N 06009W 6958 03116 9976 +110 +053 009050 051 999 999 03
022100 2027N 06011W 6959 03117 9979 +110 +056 008051 051 999 999 03
022130 2027N 06013W 6958 03121 9986 +106 +061 010051 052 999 999 03
022200 2027N 06015W 6959 03124 9991 +105 +063 009049 050 999 999 03
022230 2027N 06018W 6959 03129 9996 +104 +067 008049 050 999 999 03
022300 2027N 06020W 6959 03132 0004 +101 +069 008049 050 999 999 03
022330 2027N 06022W 6958 03134 0003 +101 +079 008050 051 034 000 03
022400 2027N 06025W 6959 03135 0003 +103 +083 010048 048 999 999 03
022430 2027N 06027W 6959 03139 0003 +106 +082 009050 050 999 999 03
022500 2027N 06029W 6959 03141 0008 +103 +081 011050 050 999 999 03
022530 2026N 06031W 6957 03143 0014 +100 +080 012048 049 999 999 03

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
2:16:00z   20.27°N   59.48°W   695.9 hPa   3076m   992.5 hPa   10.8°C   10.8°C   15° @ 064kt   65kt   50kt   0mm   Suspect
2:16:30z   20.27°N   59.50°W   695.9 hPa   3082m   993.3 hPa   10.7°C   10.7°C   14° @ 062kt   64kt   48kt   1mm   Suspect
2:17:00z   20.27°N   59.53°W   695.8 hPa   3086m   993.6 hPa   11.0°C   10.4°C   14° @ 068kt   70kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:17:30z   20.27°N   59.55°W   695.8 hPa   3091m   994.1 hPa   11.3°C   8.3°C   15° @ 064kt   67kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:18:00z   20.27°N   59.57°W   695.9 hPa   3095m   995.1 hPa   11.0°C   6.8°C   14° @ 060kt   61kt   39kt   0mm   Suspect
2:18:30z   20.27°N   60.00°W   695.7 hPa   3101m   995.8 hPa   10.9°C   6.5°C   13° @ 059kt   60kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:19:00z   20.27°N   60.02°W   695.8 hPa   3105m   996.9 hPa   10.4°C   5.9°C   13° @ 056kt   58kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:19:30z   20.27°N   60.04°W   696.0 hPa   3107m   996.8 hPa   10.9°C   5.3°C   12° @ 053kt   54kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:20:00z   20.27°N   60.06°W   695.8 hPa   3112m   996.7 hPa   11.4°C   4.7°C   11° @ 051kt   52kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:20:30z   20.27°N   60.09°W   695.8 hPa   3116m   997.6 hPa   11.0°C   5.3°C   90° @ 050kt   51kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:21:00z   20.27°N   60.11°W   695.9 hPa   3117m   997.9 hPa   11.0°C   5.6°C   80° @ 051kt   51kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:21:30z   20.27°N   60.13°W   695.8 hPa   3121m   998.6 hPa   10.6°C   6.1°C   10° @ 051kt   52kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:22:00z   20.27°N   60.15°W   695.9 hPa   3124m   999.1 hPa   10.5°C   6.3°C   90° @ 049kt   50kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:22:30z   20.27°N   60.18°W   695.9 hPa   3129m   999.6 hPa   10.4°C   6.7°C   80° @ 049kt   50kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:23:00z   20.27°N   60.20°W   695.9 hPa   3132m   1000.4 hPa   10.1°C   6.9°C   80° @ 049kt   50kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:23:30z   20.27°N   60.22°W   695.8 hPa   3134m   1000.3 hPa   10.1°C   7.9°C   80° @ 050kt   51kt   34kt   0mm   Suspect
2:24:00z   20.27°N   60.25°W   695.9 hPa   3135m   1000.3 hPa   10.3°C   8.3°C   10° @ 048kt   48kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:24:30z   20.27°N   60.27°W   695.9 hPa   3139m   1000.3 hPa   10.6°C   8.2°C   90° @ 050kt   50kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:25:00z   20.27°N   60.29°W   695.9 hPa   3141m   1000.8 hPa   10.3°C   8.1°C   11° @ 050kt   50kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:25:30z   20.26°N   60.31°W   695.7 hPa   3143m   1001.4 hPa   10.0°C   8.0°C   12° @ 048kt   49kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect


[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200235
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 06 20090820
022600 1837N 06231W 4097 07388 0374 -140 -235 018013 013 999 999 03
022630 1839N 06230W 4102 07377 0372 -135 -358 014014 015 999 999 03
022700 1840N 06228W 4098 07398 0387 -136 -232 006013 014 999 999 03
022730 1842N 06226W 4093 07403 0386 -136 -284 005013 014 999 999 03
022800 1844N 06224W 4102 07391 0387 -140 -294 003015 015 999 999 03
022830 1846N 06222W 4098 07396 0387 -137 -270 006016 017 999 999 03
022900 1847N 06221W 4099 07393 0385 -140 -229 004017 017 999 999 03
022930 1849N 06219W 4097 07400 0387 -143 -200 003018 018 999 999 03
023000 1851N 06217W 4100 07390 0385 -139 -182 359018 019 999 999 03
023030 1852N 06215W 4101 07388 0384 -139 -150 352016 018 999 999 03
023100 1854N 06214W 4101 07396 0384 -139 -166 345017 018 999 999 03
023130 1856N 06212W 4098 07399 0384 -139 -141 352015 017 999 999 03
023200 1857N 06210W 4099 07393 0382 -138 -141 013013 015 999 999 03
023230 1859N 06209W 4102 07385 0383 -144 -164 360024 028 999 999 03
023300 1901N 06208W 4094 07405 0385 -143 -156 355025 029 999 999 03
023330 1904N 06207W 4093 07406 0384 -140 -174 002018 020 999 999 03
023400 1906N 06206W 4100 07391 0382 -136 -190 006016 016 999 999 03
023430 1908N 06205W 4100 07388 0381 -136 -176 342019 021 999 999 03
023500 1910N 06204W 4100 07388 0380 -140 -172 346020 022 999 999 03
023530 1912N 06204W 4101 07391 0380 -137 -165 002022 023 999 999 03
$$
;

[RattleMan]

URNT12 KWBC 200222
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/0201Z
B. 20 DEG 27 MIN N
58 DEG 41 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2651 M
D. 85 KT
E. 089 DEG 14 NM
F. 171 DEG 114 KT
G. 076 DEG 18 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 12 C/3078 M
J. 21 C/3059 M
K. 6 C/NA
L. OPEN S
M. E03 30 25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 OB 22
MAX SFC WINDS 133 KTS NE QUAD 2323Z


URNT15 KWBC 200235
NOAA3 WX03A BILL4 HDOB 37 20090820
022600 2025N 06033W 6841 03285 0016 +091 +072 008048 049 999 999 03
022630 2023N 06034W 6634 03541 0020 +073 +055 004047 047 999 999 03
022700 2020N 06034W 6422 03806 0016 +059 +040 358044 047 999 999 03
022730 2018N 06033W 6267 04006 0018 +044 +035 352041 043 999 999 03
022800 2016N 06033W 6108 04215 0010 +037 +019 357045 046 999 999 03
022830 2014N 06032W 5980 04387 0010 +025 +019 358045 046 999 999 03
022900 2011N 06032W 5892 04509 0007 +019 +011 359046 046 999 999 03
022930 2009N 06031W 5771 04674 0003 +011 +007 356045 045 999 999 03
023000 2006N 06031W 5651 04844 9994 +004 +003 001044 045 999 999 03
023030 2004N 06030W 5526 05024 9987 -004 -004 357042 043 999 999 03
023100 2002N 06030W 5410 05192 0204 -013 -013 350040 041 999 999 03
023130 1959N 06029W 5323 05321 0212 -021 -024 345043 043 999 999 03
023200 1957N 06029W 5250 05433 0220 -028 -033 343044 044 999 999 03
023230 1954N 06028W 5190 05524 0226 -035 -043 343044 045 999 999 03
023300 1952N 06028W 5101 05661 0234 -037 -052 345044 045 999 999 03
023330 1949N 06027W 5026 05777 0242 -034 -065 345044 045 999 999 03
023400 1947N 06027W 4991 05835 0248 -036 -070 342043 044 999 999 03
023430 1944N 06027W 4950 05901 0253 -038 -075 338042 043 999 999 03
023500 1942N 06026W 4898 05985 0259 -042 -080 336041 041 999 999 03
023530 1939N 06026W 4851 06062 0265 -044 -089 335042 042 999 999 03

Heading out? As always, temperature and dew points in the negatives are incorrect due to limitations in my decoder.

Code: Select all

TIME         Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
2:26:00z   20.25°N   60.33°W   684.1 hPa   3285m   1001.6 hPa   9.1°C   7.2°C   80° @ 048kt   49kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:26:30z   20.23°N   60.34°W   663.4 hPa   3541m   1002.0 hPa   7.3°C   5.5°C   40° @ 047kt   47kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:27:00z   20.20°N   60.34°W   642.2 hPa   3806m   1001.6 hPa   5.9°C   4.0°C   358° @ 044kt   47kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:27:30z   20.18°N   60.33°W   626.7 hPa   4006m   1001.8 hPa   4.4°C   3.5°C   352° @ 041kt   43kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:28:00z   20.16°N   60.33°W   610.8 hPa   4215m   1001.0 hPa   3.7°C   1.9°C   357° @ 045kt   46kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:28:30z   20.14°N   60.32°W   598.0 hPa   4387m   1001.0 hPa   2.5°C   1.9°C   358° @ 045kt   46kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:29:00z   20.11°N   60.32°W   589.2 hPa   4509m   1000.7 hPa   1.9°C   1.1°C   359° @ 046kt   46kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:29:30z   20.09°N   60.31°W   577.1 hPa   4674m   1000.3 hPa   1.1°C   0.7°C   356° @ 045kt   45kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:30:00z   20.06°N   60.31°W   565.1 hPa   4844m   999.4 hPa   0.4°C   0.3°C   10° @ 044kt   45kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:30:30z   20.04°N   60.30°W   552.6 hPa   5024m   998.7 hPa   0.4°C   0.4°C   357° @ 042kt   43kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:31:00z   20.02°N   60.30°W   541.0 hPa   5192m   1002.4 hPa   0.3°C   0.3°C   350° @ 040kt   41kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:31:30z   19.59°N   60.29°W   532.3 hPa   5321m   1002.2 hPa   0.1°C   0.4°C   345° @ 043kt   43kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:32:00z   19.57°N   60.29°W   525.0 hPa   5433m   1002.0 hPa   0.8°C   0.3°C   343° @ 044kt   44kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:32:30z   19.54°N   60.28°W   519.0 hPa   5524m   1002.6 hPa   0.5°C   0.3°C   343° @ 044kt   45kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:33:00z   19.52°N   60.28°W   510.1 hPa   5661m   1002.4 hPa   0.7°C   0.2°C   345° @ 044kt   45kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:33:30z   19.49°N   60.27°W   502.6 hPa   5777m   1002.2 hPa   0.4°C   0.5°C   345° @ 044kt   45kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:34:00z   19.47°N   60.27°W   499.1 hPa   5835m   1002.8 hPa   0.6°C   0.0°C   342° @ 043kt   44kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:34:30z   19.44°N   60.27°W   495.0 hPa   5901m   1002.3 hPa   0.8°C   0.5°C   338° @ 042kt   43kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:35:00z   19.42°N   60.26°W   489.8 hPa   5985m   1002.9 hPa   0.2°C   0.0°C   336° @ 041kt   41kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect
2:35:30z   19.39°N   60.26°W   485.1 hPa   6062m   1002.5 hPa   0.4°C   0.9°C   335° @ 042kt   42kt   999kt   999mm   Suspect


[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

...BILL MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
505 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 880 MILES...1415
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.7N 58.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC THU AUG 20 2009

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 58.9W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 330SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 58.9W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 58.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.1N 60.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.1N 63.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 26.6N 65.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 67.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 120SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 45.0N 62.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 53.0N 44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 58.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO BILL
INDICATE THAT IT IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT...AND
A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL MEASURED A MEAN
WIND OF 134 KT OVER THE THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF SOUNDING. THE
SFMR MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 108 KT. USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA SUPPORT A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BILL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 305/15. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT ON THIS GENERAL
COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND BILL
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD
CONSISTENCY DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED THEREAFTER. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONGER RANGES...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

BILL IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 70W
MAY CAUSE IN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE STRONG TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS SHOULD IMPART A MORE RAPID RATE
OF WEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL BEGINNING TO INTERACT
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN
U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 20.7N 58.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 22.1N 60.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.1N 63.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 26.6N 65.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 67.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 45.0N 62.5W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/0000Z 53.0N 44.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[wxman57]

No real change in the track just issued, it appears. Still 115 kts. Still 69W as max west point. Landfall just east of Halifax around 9pm LST Sunday.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200245
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 07 20090820
023600 1915N 06203W 4098 07392 0379 -134 -167 357020 020 999 999 03
023630 1917N 06202W 4102 07380 0379 -131 -177 351022 022 999 999 03
023700 1919N 06201W 4099 07388 0380 -130 -249 352023 023 999 999 03
023730 1921N 06200W 4098 07391 0380 -138 -262 000025 027 999 999 03
023800 1923N 06159W 4099 07390 0381 -134 -273 356023 023 999 999 03
023830 1925N 06158W 4099 07388 0381 -130 -286 001024 025 999 999 03
023900 1928N 06158W 4095 07393 0381 -130 -316 001022 023 999 999 03
023930 1930N 06157W 4100 07390 0380 -130 -258 005024 025 999 999 03
024000 1932N 06156W 4098 07390 0379 -131 -195 360024 024 999 999 03
024030 1934N 06155W 4099 07389 0378 -131 -215 360025 025 999 999 03
024100 1936N 06154W 4099 07391 0377 -135 -212 357025 025 999 999 03
024130 1938N 06153W 4099 07385 0377 -137 -193 357025 025 999 999 03
024200 1940N 06152W 4099 07384 0378 -141 -190 358025 025 999 999 03
024230 1943N 06152W 4099 07387 0378 -145 -182 359026 026 999 999 03
024300 1945N 06151W 4099 07386 0375 -144 -182 359025 025 999 999 03
024330 1947N 06150W 4097 07386 0374 -140 -186 356023 024 019 002 03
024400 1949N 06149W 4101 07379 0375 -140 -203 357023 023 024 000 03
024430 1951N 06148W 4098 07393 0376 -139 -201 359024 025 025 000 00
024500 1953N 06147W 4101 07381 0377 -140 -192 001026 026 023 002 00
024530 1955N 06146W 4099 07385 0375 -140 -195 359026 026 023 001 03
$$
;

[Brent]

[cpdaman]

bill looking sloppy tonite

some shear and dry air effecting him i think it will be reflected in his MB and wind strength shortly

I certainly don't think he will be a 4 much longer.

[Derek Ortt]

that could be a west of Halifax landfall. Remember, the actual track will curve. That looks like SW NS

[btangy]

8/20/09 00Z NAM: NAM is struggling with the upper level lows off of the E coast showing poor run to run continuity (no surprise here). From WV imagery, it is clear the upper level low that was once off the NC coast is being elongated very quickly. NAM may be consolidating the N upper low near 38N a bit too much as it appears diffuse and likely will be further elongated and sheared apart by an approaching shortwave. The other upper level low to the N of Bill lifts out to the NE fairly quickly -- which appears to be beginning to happen in WV imagery. Both of these features will have an impact on how much ridging is left intact to the N of Bill in the next couple of days and hence the degree of westerly component of motion.

With regards to the Midwest trough, NAM is showing better continuity but is a hair weaker, narrower through the first 36 hours, and less positively tilt thereafter. By 72 hours the trough has more of a rounded base instead of a long trailing tail which is more consistent with global models but still deeper compared to the 12Z GFS. Trough strength, orientation, and location still appear to be sufficient to prevent Bill from making landfall along the US mainland with the caveat that the current weakness N of Bill remains.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 200255
AF303 0303A BILL HDOB 08 20090820
024600 1957N 06145W 4097 07388 0375 -137 -199 002026 026 023 002 00
024630 2000N 06145W 4099 07388 0376 -135 -209 001025 026 024 002 00
024700 2002N 06144W 4099 07385 0377 -131 -213 004025 026 026 000 00
024730 2004N 06143W 4101 07379 0374 -130 -208 004027 027 027 000 03
024800 2006N 06142W 4098 07389 0375 -134 -212 006027 027 026 001 00
024830 2008N 06141W 4098 07382 0374 -133 -197 008028 028 027 000 00
024900 2010N 06140W 4099 07383 0372 -135 -184 008029 029 027 001 03
024930 2012N 06140W 4098 07386 0373 -133 -185 007028 029 028 000 00
025000 2014N 06139W 4099 07383 0374 -133 -180 007028 028 027 000 00
025030 2016N 06138W 4097 07384 0373 -133 -179 007028 029 028 001 00
025100 2018N 06137W 4099 07378 0373 -132 -179 003030 030 029 000 00
025130 2021N 06136W 4099 07381 0372 -135 -180 003030 031 030 000 00
025200 2023N 06135W 4099 07384 0372 -134 -177 005032 033 031 001 00
025230 2025N 06134W 4098 07386 0372 -139 -159 008034 035 028 001 00
025300 2027N 06134W 4099 07381 0371 -135 -167 008035 035 028 001 00
025330 2029N 06133W 4099 07377 0371 -131 -172 009035 036 028 001 00
025400 2031N 06132W 4098 07387 0373 -130 -175 011035 035 030 001 00
025430 2033N 06131W 4099 07381 0371 -130 -166 013035 036 031 000 00
025500 2035N 06130W 4099 07384 0370 -126 -171 012036 036 031 001 00
025530 2037N 06129W 4115 07351 0368 -127 -167 013036 036 031 002 03
$$
;

[vacanechaser]

that could be a west of Halifax landfall. Remember, the actual track will curve. That looks like SW NS

how much of a threat do you think it will be to cape cod, if any???

think the models will come back east tonight and tomorrow???




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[wxman57]

that could be a west of Halifax landfall. Remember, the actual track will curve. That looks like SW NS

Yeah, the NHC only forecasts 24hr points connected with straight lines. Besides, it's 4 days from landfall there. Forecasts can be off by a mile or two that far out.