Hey Derek,
I'm still here. I'm actually heading out to intercept Bill near Halifax on Sunday so I'm watching the forecast tracks (and discussion here) closely. The Canadian Hurricane Centre and the NHC have roughly the same tracks, but the CHC is bringing Bill onshore north east of Halifax.
It will be interesting to see which track verifies. The wave forecast is also going to be tricky. The last time I was in Nova Scotia, the swells were 11 metres and when they hit the Peggy's Cove rocks - whoa.
What I'm a little confused about is why the NHC hasn't moved the track left when so many of the models are bringing Bill onshore south of Halifax. Do you know what models they put more credence into?
ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Stormhunter27
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 41
- Age: 52
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
021
WTNT33 KNHC 211447
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS
ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE WILL BIL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR
FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
BERMUDA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE
COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE
OF BILL.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
094
WTNT43 KNHC 211448
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
AFTER SOME DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN EARLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
APPARENT AGAIN ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS DISTINCT IT WAS YESTERDAY.
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYEWALL
WITH AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
KNOW WHETHER THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY
EYEWALL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WAS
RELATED TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT INITIAL
INTENSITY CAN BE ADJUSTED DOWN TO 100 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS TO MOVE OVER THE WARMEST OCEAN YET TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
BILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE BUT MOST LIKELY THE
HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SHEAR AND A COLDER OCEAN SHOULD WORK
AGAINST INTENSIFICATION AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS WHILE
EMBEDDED IN VERY WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BILL IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SOON WILL BECOME STEERED NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE BEING HANDLED CONSISTENTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CONSEQUENTLY THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. THE FACT THAT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 27.6N 66.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 33.0N 68.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 36.5N 68.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 48.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 53.5N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT33 KNHC 211447
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS
ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE WILL BIL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR
FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
BERMUDA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE
COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE
OF BILL.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
094
WTNT43 KNHC 211448
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
AFTER SOME DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN EARLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
APPARENT AGAIN ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS DISTINCT IT WAS YESTERDAY.
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYEWALL
WITH AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
KNOW WHETHER THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY
EYEWALL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WAS
RELATED TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT INITIAL
INTENSITY CAN BE ADJUSTED DOWN TO 100 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS TO MOVE OVER THE WARMEST OCEAN YET TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
BILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE BUT MOST LIKELY THE
HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SHEAR AND A COLDER OCEAN SHOULD WORK
AGAINST INTENSIFICATION AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS WHILE
EMBEDDED IN VERY WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BILL IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SOON WILL BECOME STEERED NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE BEING HANDLED CONSISTENTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CONSEQUENTLY THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. THE FACT THAT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 27.6N 66.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 33.0N 68.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 36.5N 68.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 48.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 53.5N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Advisories)
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS
ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE WILL BIL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR
FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
BERMUDA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE
COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE
OF BILL.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 66.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..475NE 360SE 350SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 66.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 36.5N 68.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 105NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 48.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 200SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 53.5N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 66.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
AFTER SOME DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN EARLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
APPARENT AGAIN ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS DISTINCT IT WAS YESTERDAY.
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYEWALL
WITH AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
KNOW WHETHER THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY
EYEWALL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WAS
RELATED TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT INITIAL
INTENSITY CAN BE ADJUSTED DOWN TO 100 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS TO MOVE OVER THE WARMEST OCEAN YET TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
BILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE BUT MOST LIKELY THE
HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SHEAR AND A COLDER OCEAN SHOULD WORK
AGAINST INTENSIFICATION AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS WHILE
EMBEDDED IN VERY WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BILL IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SOON WILL BECOME STEERED NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE BEING HANDLED CONSISTENTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CONSEQUENTLY THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. THE FACT THAT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 27.6N 66.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 33.0N 68.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 36.5N 68.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 48.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 53.5N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS
ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE WILL BIL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR
FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING
BERMUDA.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE
COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE
OF BILL.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 66.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..475NE 360SE 350SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 66.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 36.5N 68.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 105NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 48.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 200SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 53.5N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 66.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009
AFTER SOME DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN EARLY THIS
MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
APPARENT AGAIN ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS DISTINCT IT WAS YESTERDAY.
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYEWALL
WITH AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND. AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO
KNOW WHETHER THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY
EYEWALL. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WAS
RELATED TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT INITIAL
INTENSITY CAN BE ADJUSTED DOWN TO 100 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS TO MOVE OVER THE WARMEST OCEAN YET TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
BILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE BUT MOST LIKELY THE
HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SHEAR AND A COLDER OCEAN SHOULD WORK
AGAINST INTENSIFICATION AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS WHILE
EMBEDDED IN VERY WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BILL IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SOON WILL BECOME STEERED NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE BEING HANDLED CONSISTENTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CONSEQUENTLY THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
PACKED. THE FACT THAT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
INCREASES MY CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION
OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 27.6N 66.3W 100 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 100 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 33.0N 68.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 36.5N 68.4W 90 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 48.5N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 53.5N 27.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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MGC
- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
I doubt that TS force winds will be observed in the USA because of Bill. The trough saves the day. I think Bill will pass far enough east not to cause any wind issues, but big waves will be.....MGC
Of course the above is the opinion on MGC and not an official forecast.
Of course the above is the opinion on MGC and not an official forecast.
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WeatherWatcher1971
- Tropical Wave
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- Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:09 pm
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
Can someone give me details on what to expect? I have been watching this board since first word of Bill on Tues, I still don't know if its going to be something to be concerned about or just heavy wind and rain. Halifax.
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Derek Ortt
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
WeatherWatcher1971 wrote:Can someone give me details on what to expect? I have been watching this board since first word of Bill on Tues, I still don't know if its going to be something to be concerned about or just heavy wind and rain. Halifax.
Hurricane conditions are definitely possible. The worst case would be a landfall near Lunenburg given the direction that Bill is headed. That could create conditions similar to Hurricane Juan, although over a larger area as Bill is much larger than Juan. Absolute worst case would be a Cat 3 making landfall near Lunenburg - that would create conditions significantly worse than in Juan for the immediate Halifax area, and exposed areas on the ocean (such as Point Pleasant Park area) could see winds to 110 mph. A landfall further down the coast would give it some time to weaken, but still would likely lead to hurricane force sustained winds.
If it stays offshore or makes landfall near or east of Halifax (given the angle of approach), the worst winds should remain over the ocean and you could expect sustained winds around 65-80 mph - basically near the boundary of TS/hurricane and less than with Juan (still capable of damage though). Rainfall should be greater than with Juan though as this storm is much larger.
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Bermuda already getting the outer bands from Bill I see then Hurakan, looks like could be a very wet day for them, could be quite decent totals!
Also if Nova Scotia does get hit by Bill as a category-2 then thats got to be a worry because they don't get hit by hurricanes that strong all that often, usually its just category-1 hurricanes that are rapidly going extra-tropical.
Also if Nova Scotia does get hit by Bill as a category-2 then thats got to be a worry because they don't get hit by hurricanes that strong all that often, usually its just category-1 hurricanes that are rapidly going extra-tropical.
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WeatherWatcher1971
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 7
- Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:09 pm
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
CrazyC83 wrote:WeatherWatcher1971 wrote:Can someone give me details on what to expect? I have been watching this board since first word of Bill on Tues, I still don't know if its going to be something to be concerned about or just heavy wind and rain. Halifax.
Hurricane conditions are definitely possible. The worst case would be a landfall near Lunenburg given the direction that Bill is headed. That could create conditions similar to Hurricane Juan, although over a larger area as Bill is much larger than Juan. Absolute worst case would be a Cat 3 making landfall near Lunenburg - that would create conditions significantly worse than in Juan for the immediate Halifax area, and exposed areas on the ocean (such as Point Pleasant Park area) could see winds to 110 mph. A landfall further down the coast would give it some time to weaken, but still would likely lead to hurricane force sustained winds.
If it stays offshore or makes landfall near or east of Halifax (given the angle of approach), the worst winds should remain over the ocean and you could expect sustained winds around 65-80 mph - basically near the boundary of TS/hurricane and less than with Juan (still capable of damage though). Rainfall should be greater than with Juan though as this storm is much larger.
Thank you for the info. folks up here are saying its going to bypass NS all together and all we can expect is a bit of wind/rain. I don't know where they are getting the info from, but it seems to be the same opinion of everyone I hear discussing it. Just looking for some info from folks that have a bit of education on the matter behind them.
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Stratusxpeye
- Category 2
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:in Halifax... I'd expect to be under a Hurricane Watch by tonight. Could be a cat 2 when it gets up that way
Completely my opinion but I have huge doubts about that. Bill is much weaker than it's peak and has some much cooler waters than 80+ degree tropic temps when it gets up that way. I'd say if it even does produce hurricane conditions on land in that area it would be minimal CAT1 Conditions. I doubt any conditions will be felt on any US soil outside of large swells, rip currents and things of such nature.
However this is only my OPINION! Not a forecast.
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Hybridstorm_November2001
- S2K Supporter
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Re: Re:
Stratusxpeye wrote:
Completely my opinion but I have huge doubts about that. Bill is much weaker than it's peak and has some much cooler waters than 80+ degree tropic temps when it gets up that way. I'd say if it even does produce hurricane conditions on land in that area it would be minimal CAT1 Conditions. I doubt any conditions will be felt on any US soil outside of large swells, rip currents and things of such nature.
However this is only my OPINION! Not a forecast.
That depends of some factors. Bill is recoverying from last night wounds and could intensify a little before reaching the cool waters, another factor is that Bill will begin to accelerate and it will spend less time on those cool waters so it won't weaken that much. I think a low end cat2 or high end cat 1 is very possible.
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
So far I haven't seen anyone ask if Bill was/is/will be an annular 'cane. 
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cyclonic chronic
looks to be getting stronger again. eye is starting to clear out again. as far as canada is concerened, bill will be close to or fully extratropical at that point. so the highest winds wont be in the center, they migrate outwards when extratropical transitions occur. once it is extratropical, whatever strength its at, itll probably strengthen some again, but not in the sense that hurricanes do. the winds could get a lil stronger, but the extent of hurricane force winds will increase outward. no matter what tho, if bill does come ashore in N.S., the waves will be huge, hopefully at low tide as well. just my thoughts on the situation
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
coriolis wrote:So far I haven't seen anyone ask if Bill was/is/will be an annular 'cane.
Oh yes, someone asked several pages ago, but the answer was that Bill was too big and the eye was not wide enough to be an annular hurricane.
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craptacular
- Category 2
- Posts: 581
- Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 pm
- Location: The Mad City, WI
Re: ATL : BILL (03L) Recon Thread
FYI, there is a plane in Bill right now. I didn't see a VDM yet, but they just passed the center on a SW-NE pass:
URNT15 KNHC 211632
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 19 20090821
162200 2733N 06712W 6970 03035 9917 +102 +018 306050 050 050 004 00
162230 2735N 06710W 6963 03040 9913 +103 +017 306050 052 051 003 00
162300 2736N 06709W 6972 03023 9900 +109 +018 308051 052 051 003 00
162330 2737N 06708W 6965 03026 9891 +110 +021 306052 053 052 002 00
162400 2738N 06706W 6965 03022 9889 +106 +025 306054 055 051 002 00
162430 2740N 06705W 6969 03011 9885 +104 +029 304048 049 052 001 00
162500 2741N 06703W 6972 03002 9874 +107 +031 303052 053 052 002 00
162530 2742N 06702W 6962 03005 9855 +116 +032 301055 056 053 001 00
162600 2744N 06700W 6967 02991 9847 +114 +035 296056 056 054 003 00
162630 2745N 06659W 6969 02981 9849 +106 +038 298060 061 057 008 00
162700 2746N 06657W 6965 02974 9842 +101 +040 296058 059 060 011 00
162730 2748N 06656W 6967 02960 9818 +110 +039 290059 060 062 008 00
162800 2749N 06654W 6970 02947 9802 +116 +037 291055 059 060 007 00
162830 2750N 06653W 6966 02947 9793 +119 +036 291050 050 059 007 00
162900 2752N 06651W 6967 02935 9766 +134 +036 294052 053 055 003 00
162930 2753N 06650W 6967 02926 9750 +140 +038 295055 057 052 002 00
163000 2754N 06648W 6967 02921 9743 +137 +041 300055 056 049 003 00
163030 2755N 06647W 6967 02908 9729 +138 +045 306057 058 048 003 00
163100 2757N 06646W 6966 02897 9728 +127 +049 310058 058 050 005 00
163130 2758N 06644W 6970 02878 9713 +127 +054 313059 061 050 005 00
URNT15 KNHC 211641
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 20 20090821
163200 2759N 06643W 6970 02868 9685 +139 +055 314063 065 053 002 00
163230 2800N 06642W 6965 02858 9650 +158 +055 313063 064 056 002 00
163300 2802N 06640W 6967 02841 9635 +156 +057 315064 065 056 003 00
163330 2803N 06639W 6966 02826 9630 +144 +061 311059 061 056 004 00
163400 2804N 06637W 6973 02797 9610 +142 +067 307052 056 051 004 03
163430 2805N 06636W 6962 02788 9584 +149 +070 305037 042 042 003 00
163500 2807N 06635W 6971 02775 9573 +153 +071 305027 029 032 003 03
163530 2808N 06634W 6963 02775 9562 +153 +074 303020 021 023 003 00
163600 2810N 06633W 6972 02755 9563 +146 +077 292009 014 017 003 03
163630 2812N 06632W 6960 02767 9564 +140 +080 233002 004 023 003 03
163700 2813N 06632W 6971 02751 9562 +141 +083 140005 007 025 002 03
163730 2815N 06631W 6962 02764 9555 +144 +085 145011 013 023 001 03
163800 2816N 06629W 6967 02755 9560 +140 +086 148016 018 022 003 00
163830 2817N 06628W 6970 02754 9564 +135 +089 147022 024 023 003 00
163900 2819N 06627W 6964 02758 9571 +129 +090 147028 031 029 003 00
163930 2820N 06625W 6964 02758 9582 +121 +090 145034 036 034 008 00
164000 2821N 06624W 6972 02758 9571 +137 +086 141041 043 040 007 00
164030 2822N 06622W 6963 02771 9576 +137 +082 141049 052 044 001 03
164100 2824N 06621W 6967 02777 9583 +140 +081 139058 060 069 001 03
164130 2825N 06619W 6970 02781 9591 +139 +082 140063 064 078 005 03
URNT15 KNHC 211632
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 19 20090821
162200 2733N 06712W 6970 03035 9917 +102 +018 306050 050 050 004 00
162230 2735N 06710W 6963 03040 9913 +103 +017 306050 052 051 003 00
162300 2736N 06709W 6972 03023 9900 +109 +018 308051 052 051 003 00
162330 2737N 06708W 6965 03026 9891 +110 +021 306052 053 052 002 00
162400 2738N 06706W 6965 03022 9889 +106 +025 306054 055 051 002 00
162430 2740N 06705W 6969 03011 9885 +104 +029 304048 049 052 001 00
162500 2741N 06703W 6972 03002 9874 +107 +031 303052 053 052 002 00
162530 2742N 06702W 6962 03005 9855 +116 +032 301055 056 053 001 00
162600 2744N 06700W 6967 02991 9847 +114 +035 296056 056 054 003 00
162630 2745N 06659W 6969 02981 9849 +106 +038 298060 061 057 008 00
162700 2746N 06657W 6965 02974 9842 +101 +040 296058 059 060 011 00
162730 2748N 06656W 6967 02960 9818 +110 +039 290059 060 062 008 00
162800 2749N 06654W 6970 02947 9802 +116 +037 291055 059 060 007 00
162830 2750N 06653W 6966 02947 9793 +119 +036 291050 050 059 007 00
162900 2752N 06651W 6967 02935 9766 +134 +036 294052 053 055 003 00
162930 2753N 06650W 6967 02926 9750 +140 +038 295055 057 052 002 00
163000 2754N 06648W 6967 02921 9743 +137 +041 300055 056 049 003 00
163030 2755N 06647W 6967 02908 9729 +138 +045 306057 058 048 003 00
163100 2757N 06646W 6966 02897 9728 +127 +049 310058 058 050 005 00
163130 2758N 06644W 6970 02878 9713 +127 +054 313059 061 050 005 00
URNT15 KNHC 211641
AF300 0903A BILL HDOB 20 20090821
163200 2759N 06643W 6970 02868 9685 +139 +055 314063 065 053 002 00
163230 2800N 06642W 6965 02858 9650 +158 +055 313063 064 056 002 00
163300 2802N 06640W 6967 02841 9635 +156 +057 315064 065 056 003 00
163330 2803N 06639W 6966 02826 9630 +144 +061 311059 061 056 004 00
163400 2804N 06637W 6973 02797 9610 +142 +067 307052 056 051 004 03
163430 2805N 06636W 6962 02788 9584 +149 +070 305037 042 042 003 00
163500 2807N 06635W 6971 02775 9573 +153 +071 305027 029 032 003 03
163530 2808N 06634W 6963 02775 9562 +153 +074 303020 021 023 003 00
163600 2810N 06633W 6972 02755 9563 +146 +077 292009 014 017 003 03
163630 2812N 06632W 6960 02767 9564 +140 +080 233002 004 023 003 03
163700 2813N 06632W 6971 02751 9562 +141 +083 140005 007 025 002 03
163730 2815N 06631W 6962 02764 9555 +144 +085 145011 013 023 001 03
163800 2816N 06629W 6967 02755 9560 +140 +086 148016 018 022 003 00
163830 2817N 06628W 6970 02754 9564 +135 +089 147022 024 023 003 00
163900 2819N 06627W 6964 02758 9571 +129 +090 147028 031 029 003 00
163930 2820N 06625W 6964 02758 9582 +121 +090 145034 036 034 008 00
164000 2821N 06624W 6972 02758 9571 +137 +086 141041 043 040 007 00
164030 2822N 06622W 6963 02771 9576 +137 +082 141049 052 044 001 03
164100 2824N 06621W 6967 02777 9583 +140 +081 139058 060 069 001 03
164130 2825N 06619W 6970 02781 9591 +139 +082 140063 064 078 005 03
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Typhoon_Willie
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Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
Here is a link to the Bermuda radar. As you can see, rain from Bill is already hitting the island.
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