Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

This twave continues to refire nicely, hopefully the winds are pretty hostile near the islands...

[mpic]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is there some rotation around 20-25N?

[cycloneye]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is there some rotation around 20-25N?

That is an Upper Level Low.

[mpic]

Thanks, cycloneye. I think I got it now. Storm2K makes me want to take a weather course.

[cycloneye]

NHC starts to mention this wave.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
939 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NEAR 23N 58W WILL SETTLE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON MON. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W IS EXPECTED TO
SPLIT OFF AND MOVE NW AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH
OF PR ON TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT LOW NEAR 23N 58W THIS EVENING CONITNUES TO
RETROGRESS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW
AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY NE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ANTICIPATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ERN
THIRD OF PR AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
MID LEVELS DESTABILIZE.

MID-LYR INSTABILITY FCST TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS TUTT
LOW SETTLES NORTH OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO FCST TO STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH THE IMPROVING DYNAMICS ALOFT IT
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE DAY THAN TODAY. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH WETTER AS MOISTURE INCREASES TO ABOUT
160% OF NORMAL AS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR TC
DEVELOPMENT AT THE PRESENT TIME...INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE
TUTT LOW OVR THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN NRMS SHRA/TSRA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. GLOBAL MODELS AND
THEIR INDIVIUDAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE AS IT MOVES NW OF PR ON WED. SEE LATEST TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK
FROM NHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48 HRS
AS IT MOVES NW OF PR ON WED. OPERATIONAL CMC/GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL ARE CLUSTERED INDICATING
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.It looks like a wet next couyple of days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...A TUTT REFLECTION IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH A THE ASSOCIATED TUTT LOW RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO OUR
NORTH...TO RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
56 WEST THIS MORNING WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER...WILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE PASS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TOMORROW TO SEE ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A FAIRLY TYPICAL REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO
BE IN STORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE A MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...AND VARYING AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BILL...WHICH LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT
190 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[abajan]

Winds have diminished considerable here over the last several hours. Clearly, something's afoot.
Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[Gustywind]

Morning to all. Looking at Invest 92L my carib islanders just east of the Leewards... Let's see what could happens with this feature. NRL site http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc09/A ... .100pc.jpg

[Gustywind]

92L just east of the Leewards islands

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1146 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009

.UPDATE...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE..IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AT THIS TIME. THE BULK OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THEN AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE PUERTO RICO GETS IT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT A WET AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO BECOME
UNSTABLE. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOME AREAS.

FOR TUESDAY...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
MINOR LOCAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS HIGHWAYS...ROADWAYS...LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS URBAN LOCATIONS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 18
KT. AN INVERTED-V FEATURE IS APPARENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 52W-58W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.


...$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST MON AUG 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NORTH OF
SAINT MARTIN BUT IS RETREATING NORTH. A WEAKER LOW WILL FORM AT
THE BASE OF THIS LOW TONIGHT AND MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS...AND WILL BE OVER HAITI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THE
REST OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE NORTH...BUT
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL ALSO FORM TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
MOVING AROUND 35 NORTH 50 WEST UNTIL NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL MOVE WEST...A WEAK LOW WILL FORM IN
THE APEX OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TROUGHING IN THE MID TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TODAY WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA ALREADY
ACTIVE WITH CONVECTION FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TUESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA WET. MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOOD MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING UP
THROUGH TWO INCHES HAS REACTED TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AN
UNSTABLE SOUNDING AND PRODUCED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
FREQUENT AND COPIOUS LIGHTNING. SOME RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE EXCEEDED 3
INCHES IN MARICAO ACCORDING TO NWS RADAR AND SEVERAL FLS`S HAVE
BEEN ISSUED.

THE WAVE IS STILL BEING STRONGLY DEVELOPED BY THE NAM AND THE
FORECAST THAT IT IS PRODUCING IS STRONGLY DISTORTED BY THIS
CYCLOGENESIS TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE HAVE HAD TO RELY ALMOST
COMPLETELY ON THE GFS. BOTH MODELS RIGHTLY BRING AND KEEP PRECIPITATION
MAXIMUMS TO OUR NORTH AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
BE. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE ACTIVITY INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. ALSO THE TRANSLATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND GOOD ACTIVITY TUESDAY. SOME FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE. SURFACE WINDS
TUESDAY WERE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTH EAST IN THE MODEL RUNS AND
THE EXACT DIRECTION WILL BE CRITICAL. THE GFS ALSO NOTES GOOD
MOISTURE AT 700 MB BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A FAIRLY MOIST SERIES OF AFTERNOONS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...TJMZ MAY EXPERIENCE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
AIRPORT BETWEEN 19Z TO 21Z. LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TAF SITES...AND TNCM AND TKPK MAY
ALSO EXPERIENCE BRIEF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AS SQUALL LINES
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE EAST...RESULTING IN
LOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT JUST 7 FEET IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 30 OR SO
HOURS. THEN EXPECT SEAS TO DIE DOWN A BIT. WINDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
ON TUESDAY AND THEN RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

[msbee]

So we have Invest 92 now!
gray cloudy skies here.
no rain. one heavy boom of thunder a few hours ago.
just started heariing thunder again
I guess it is all North of us.

[cycloneye]

we have Invest 92 now, don't we?
gray cloudy skies here.
no rain. one heavy boom of thunder a few hours ago.
I guess it is all North of us.

Yes 92L.Is expected that the majority of the bad weather bypasses us to the north.But we will get scattered showers anyway.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 PM AST MON AUG 24 2009

PRC037-053-089-103-119-250130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0221.090824T2224Z-090825T0130Z/
/00000.N..000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LUQUILLO PR-NAGUABO PR-CEIBA PR-FAJARDO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
624 PM AST MON AUG 24 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...CEIBA...FAJARDO AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 930 PM AST

* AT 623 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SERIES OF SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THESE AREAS. HEAVY
RAINS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE
ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS. ESTIMATED RADAR AMOUNTS WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR RANGED FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME AREAS UNDER THIS ADVISORY.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

You can see the circulation just NE of Barbuda.